The growth of activity in services and manufacturing in the euro area slowed more than expected in September although the optimism of business leaders for the coming months has strengthened show Thursday Initial results of monthly surveys from Markit purchasing managers.
PMI flash services, calculated on the basis of responses from approximately 2,000 companies, fell to 53.6 against 55.9 in August, falling to its lowest level since February.
It now exceeds more than a year since the 50 between contraction and expansion of activity.But it appears below the consensus estimate of economists and analysts polled by Reuters, who gave it to 55.5.
"The slowdown in September is quite high, but the third quarter as a whole does not seem too bad.The pace of growth remains strong (…) We expect growth (Gross Domestic Product) of about 0.6%, "said Chris Williamson, Mark.
For the manufacturing sector, one of the engines of recovery in late 2009, the PMI flash fell to the lowest since January, to 53.6 against 55.1 in August and 54.5 expected.
The composite PMI, which includes services and industry and is often used to predict the evolution of global growth, fell to 53.8 against 56.2 last month, well below estimates, which gave 55 7.
Ben May at Capital Economics, "prefigures the composite index still reasonably healthy growth in quarterly GDP, about 0.4%.
"But, more worryingly, the equivalent U.S. and UK have recently registered decreases even stronger, and as the euro zone is often behind these indices, further declines in the coming months are unlikely to exclude" , "he added.
The euro area is output in the third quarter of last year from its worst recession since World War II and the announcement last month of relatively strong growth of 1.0% in the second quarter surprised the markets.
THE SLOWDOWN IS CONFIRMED
But economists expect a slowdown over the coming months with the rise of austerity plans implemented by many states and mitigation of support provided to date by the stimulus.However, the likelihood of a relapse into recession in the region is considered low.
Based on estimates of about 70 economists polled by Reuters, the growth of the Sixteen would be between 0.2% and 0.4% per quarter until the end of 2011.
The PMI for new orders in manufacturing fell in September to the lowest in a year, falling from 55.3 to 52.8.And the decline in new contracts in services is of equal magnitude.
Wednesday, Eurostat reported a 2.4% decline in industrial orders in the euro area in July, down two times greater than expected due among others to a significant weakness in capital goods and consumer durables.
And the recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar a bit more clouded the horizon for exporters in the region.
Positive, the expectations index to a year in services, the largest sector of the euro area rose one point to 68.1, its highest since April.
This rise contrasts with the sharp drop in the ZEW index of investor sentiment in Germany announced last week.
In Germany, growth fell to its lowest level since February in the services and the lowest in the industry since January, according to PMI flash nationally.
In France, PMI flash services also appears slightly below the consensus while the industry shows up unexpectedly.
More worryingly, the composite index of employment fell to 51.3 against 51.7 in August, which bodes of a slowdown in hiring.