Economic Analysis and Indicators

Consumer spending in the U.S. during the "Black Friday" on Friday were 6.4% higher than the year before, according to a study by the American Federation of distribution (NRF).

Customers are more income to the department stores and boutiques, while the last two years they tended to be confined to supermarkets and discount stores.

According to analysts, this trend illustrates the growing confidence of U.S. consumers after two years to tighten their belts to survive the economic crisis.

"Shop is a hobby, an outlet, and always return to the same old store before eventually tiring," said Kin Forrest Caughey, analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

Total attendance over the period from Thursday to Sunday of Thanksgiving rose 8.7% to 212 million customers, compared to 2009, the study says the NRF, the institute conducted by BIGresearch, which counts Sundays are still looking.

The expenditure incurred on the internet and in stores reached 45 billion over the four days, against 41.2 billion in 2009. Per customer, average spending stood at 365.34 against $ 343.31 last year.

The study also shows that 52% of clients surveyed were planning to visit a department store against 49.4% in 2009. For boutiques, the rate rose from 22.9% in 2009 to 24.4% this year.The percentage of discount stores has however declined from 43.2% to 40.3%.

Overall, the study reveals that American consumers, whose spending accounts for 70% of local gross domestic product, were willing to pay more this year and no longer be limited to essential items.

According to Ellen Davis, spokesperson for the NRF, the jewels were sold particularly well.Customers surveyed were 22% more than in 2009 to say have purchased.

The effects of the recession are still being felt, however, and although 2010 is probably the best of the past three years, it still does not mark a return to pre-crisis.

"We certainly do not return to 2007 levels," noted Patty Edwards, chief investment officer at Trutin Financial.

U.S. stock markets ended down Friday after a shortened session the day after Thanksgiving, as investors worried the financial situation in the euro area.

The Dow Jones lost 0.85% or 95.28 points to 11,092.00 points while the Standard & Poor's 500 largest, shrank by 0.75% or 8.95 points at 1189.40 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ended down 0.34% or 8.56 points to 2534.56 points.

For the week, the Dow Jones has sold 1%, the S & P 0.86% and the Nasdaq gained 0.65%.

"The debt crisis in Europe is attracting many buyers in dollars, which leads to risk aversion," said Peter Cardillo, market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.

Investors are also worried about the situation on the Korean peninsula.Chinese authorities Friday launched a warning against any military operation near their coasts.The warning came 48 hours before the start of joint naval maneuvers with South Koreans and Americans in the Yellow Sea, not far from where a South Korean island was bombarded by artillery North last Tuesday.

Investors followed the distribution values at the "Black Friday", the day after Thanksgiving that traditionally gives the kickoff of the holiday shopping period of year-end.

The industry expects this year to know its best sales in three years, thanks to economic recovery in the United States.

Wal-Mart sold 0.5% to 53.74 dollars and Target 0.64% to 56.88 dollars, but Macy's has gained 0.42% to $ 26.

Specialist Food Del Monte, who agreed to be bought for four billion dollars by a consortium led by KKR took 4.50% to 18.80 dollars, just under the $ 19 price offered by investors .

Household spending on manufactured goods fell 0.7% over one month because of the decline of the automobile.

Consumption expenditure of households French manufactured goods are distributed down in October (-0.7% on a month), due mainly to lower driving expenses, after rising by 1.6% (revised figure) in September, according to figures published Friday, November 26 by INSEE.

In October, spending on durable goods fell 1.7% after a sharp rise in September (+4.7%). This reversal is attributable to spending on automobiles (-4.4% +11.3% after). Purchases of equipment housing have instead increased slightly over one month (+0.6%).

Purchases of textile and leather fell 0.4% after the slight increase in September (+0.2%). Consumer spending in other manufactured goods remained stable in October after rising 0.2% in September.Purchases of books and stationery were particularly slow.

The National Institute of Statistics has revised up spending the month of September to +1.6% (+1.5% cons initially announced), which had helped offset the decline in August. In September, INSEE had announced an increase of 1.2% of household consumption on the entire third quarter from the previous quarter.

The rate of household credit in September reached the lowest level on record, continuing the decline as mortgage side than on consumer credit, according to figures released Wednesday by the Bank of France.

Wednesday, INSEE had indicated that the morale of French households had continued to improve in November, the indicator that the measure has gained two points from October, although it remains well below its average long term.

Wall Street has gained nearly 1.5% Friday, ending two consecutive sessions of decline in favor of a battery of macroeconomic indicators suggesting that the recovery is gaining momentum in the United States.

The Dow Jones Industrial 30 rose 1.37% or 150.91 points at 11,187.28. The S & P-500, wider, took 17.62 points, or 1.49%, to 1198.35.The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 48.17 points for his side (1.93%) to 2543.12 points.

According to economists, these statistics bode well for the holiday shopping season, which traditionally kick off is given by the "Black Friday", the Friday following the Thanksgiving holiday.

Because of this festival, all markets will be closed U.S. government Thursday.

The jeweler Tiffany & Co has also contributed to the optimism about the future consumption of Americans, displaying results and a quarterly sales well above expectations and predicting strong sales during the holiday season.

The title Tiffany closed up 5.25% to 61.33 dollars.

Among the indicators of the day, both went in the direction of possible improvement in consumption, with one hand, consumer confidence in November, as measured by the survey Thomson Reuters-University of Michigan, the highest since June.

On the other hand, consumer spending rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, in the context of annual increase in the PCE price index base that has never been so low.(See

The S & P grouping the values associated with the distribution jumped 2.57%.

Other positive indicators include the weekly jobless claims, which, at 407,000 in the week to November 20, are at their lowest since the week to July 19, 2008.

Despite the rise Wednesday, which occurred in a relatively small volume of trade due to the approach of Thanksgiving, the U.S. equity market, which has suffered from concerns about the debt crisis of the euro area and tensions between two Koreas, still suffers from a decline of 3% since the beginning of November.

As the Ford closed up 1.59% to 15.95 dollars after the manufacturer announced a debt reduction of $ 1.9 billion (1.4 billion) through an offer of exchange of debt securities in cash and stock.

Action Oracle won 2.02% to 27.74 dollars after a U.S. court ruling condemning its rival SAP to pay $ 1.3 billion in damages for theft of intellectual property.

Arkema announced Tuesday an EBITDA target of over one billion euros in 2015, supported by innovation, rapid growth of emerging and targeted acquisitions.

The first French chemist was also the goal, at an investor day, performing at the end of its new five-year strategic plan a turnover of approximately EUR 7.5 billion, cons 5.8 billion expected at the end of this year.

These two objectives represent an increase of about one third.Earlier this month, Arkema has raised its 2010 targets and said cover including an EBITDA of approximately EUR 740 million.

The company said that its growth for years to come should be fueled by acquisitions that could represent a billion euros of additional revenue. This policy will be accompanied by transfers of small non-strategic activities for about 300 million euros of turnover.

Dublin had a narrow escape. The government must not yet increase corporate taxes in exchange for help in its banking sector.

Ireland may blow: the EU and the IMF should not insist that it no longer sacrosanct corporate tax of 12.5%. The Irish Government however intends to broaden its base in exchange for financial support for its banking sector.

It must be said that the corporation tax (IS), the lowest in the euro area where the average is 25.7%, was the main driver of the spectacular growth experienced by Ireland in the years 1980 and 1990. It is as English-speaking countries with low taxation that the island has managed to attract big names in high tech and pharmaceuticals such as Merck, Microsoft and Google. U.S. companies are in fact 100 000 jobs in Ireland.Even in this year of recession, companies that export high-tech products have created 7000 starch.

Foreign companies threaten to leave

Ireland is therefore concerned that an increase in the SI do flee, and foreign companies do nothing to reassure her. Microsoft, Intel, Hewlett Packard as well as Bank of America and Merrill Lynch indicated in a statement by the American Chamber of Commerce that an increase in the SI in Ireland would have an "adverse impact" on its "ability to attract and retain investments. " And discuss other countries, like Singapore, considered to be more competitive cool business card… Without going so far, other countries such as Iceland, Holland and Switzerland also offers tax advantages for businesses.

That is why Dublin is ready to undergo many sacrifices its citizens for not having to touch the SI: the minimum wage should be lowered taxes on the increased income and wages of employees declined further.

The opportunity for better tax harmonization?

However, the EU and the IMF could, as had been discussed in recent days to push harder on that Dublin is revising its rates upward. Germany and France have often expressed grievances vis-à-vis the distortion of competition engendered by the tax system "unfair" Irish. Business Insider blog compares the lenient attitude of Britain to that of a "cuckold husband who not only forgive but would leave his wife continue to deceive."But in fact "is not so much that French companies relocating their operations and jobs in Ireland, says Agnès Benassy Quéré, CEPII economist, it is mostly they are making arrangements for tax optimization through their subsidiary Irish and thus deprive the French state tax revenue. "

Yet at a time when all states are desperate for revenue, there may therefore be a "window of opportunity for more tax harmonization could, for example through a floor," said economist CEPII. Moreover, Ireland itself is beginning to experience the bitter taste of tax competition. "While the UK has temporarily lowered its tax last year, the people of Dublin have begun to do their shopping in Belfast."

In addition, an increase of the SI would not necessarily be so bad for Ireland.For despite the thinly veiled threats of foreign firms, it does not say that they really deserted island. After all, the country has more to offer than its low IS: it represents, including the U.S., access to the single European market where the workforce speaks English, is well formed and costs little in payroll taxes. Although the SI progressed, companies would not go necessarily in the British neighbor, where the government has promised to raise the SI from 28 to 24% but they would face the exchange risk to the pound sterling.

However, it is not clear that increasing the SI has little effect. From an Irish perspective, first, "the SI is not the best lever to raise funds because in essence it is a bit predictable tax whose revenues vary greatly depending on the losses or profits groups "said Agnes Benassy Quéré.The Irish also have beautiful game to point out that more than IS does not necessarily mean more tax revenue. Despite their higher rates, countries such as Germany (30%) and France (33%) eventually reap little revenue because of the many ways to circumvent taxation professional business card. A recent study by the Council of compulsory shows that this rate is moot, especially for large groups, in fact, rather pay around 8%. Result, the IS represents 2.7% of GDP in Ireland against only 1.9% in Germany and 2.9% in France, according to the OECD.

From the perspective of the other major European countries, it does not saying that the Irish tax competition is so dangerous as this: first, because "public spending are not all unproductive and that some of them Fortunately, help increase business productivity, "says Thierry Madiès site Telos.Then, because the 'big' countries can sustain higher tax rates than small "countries because they are less susceptible to leakage of tax base."

Finally, Ireland impose a rate increase could be turned against Germany and France when they try to pass an amendment to the EU treaty, warns C. Randall Henning the Peterson Institute. Indeed, if Ireland finally ratified the Treaty of Lisbon, was on the express condition that it could retain its IS. If this guarantee is not met, the Irish, great regulars "no" in referendums in Europe, will have even more reasons to oppose a new treaty.

Explaining that the strength of the U.S. recovery is crucial to the health of the global economy, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, said Thursday the decision to buy massive amounts of government bonds face of criticism accusing him of seeking thereby devaluing the dollar.

"The best way to continue to deliver strong economic fundamentals that support the dollar as the global recovery is through policies that lead to a resumption of robust growth in the context of price stability in the U.S. "said the president of the Federal Reserve as the text of his speech scheduled on Friday during a conference in Frankfurt by the European Central Bank.

The text of his speech – the first public statement since the Bernanke Fed unveiled on November 3 that it intends to inject $ 600 billion into the economy by mid-2011 by buying Treasury bonds – has been released by the Fed before the conference in Frankfurt.

This new program termed "quantitative easing" the Fed has attracted sharp criticism from U.S. partners who want to play suspect on the dollar and take the path of a "competitive devaluation" that dare not speak its name.

The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, whose country is after China the world's largest exporter, has estimated that the Fed policy had "no sense".

United States, the decision of the central bank is also debate: Republicans and economists accuse him of sowing the seeds of a return of inflation and a weakening dollar and believe it diverts the mission support the economy that normally accrues to fiscal policy, so political power.

RESUME "TWO-SPEED"

But Bernanke said that the sluggish economy, declining inflation and persistent unemployment for months grazing the 10% threshold has convinced U.S. politicians of the need to act.

"On their current economic trajectory, the United States run the risk of millions of workers unemployed or underemployed for many years," he said."As a community we should find that unacceptable."

The Fed's mandate is twofold: to support employment and keeping inflation low and constant levels.

In the text of his speech, Bernanke also believes that a policy mix of fiscal measures to support short term initiatives to reduce deficits in the longer term would be a welcome addition to the monetary policy that leads the institution.

As for the recent decline of the dollar on the foreign exchange market, the Fed chief judge that reflects a rebalancing of things after the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe last spring that led many investors to regain status safe haven of the greenback.

He also found that the adjustment of exchange rates is incomplete because some emerging countries prevent their currencies from appreciating. "The undervaluation of currencies in surplus countries and hindering an international adjustment causes effects of surpluses that would not exist if exchange rates better reflect market fundamentals," he insists.

For Bernanke, the world has entered a recovery phase "two tier" On the one hand, emerging countries who find their levels of growth before the crisis of 2008-2009, on the other, the advanced economies where growth is slow to start. Hence the need for the latter, to maintain "political accommodation".

Local governments carry out some 74% of public investment in France.

The local authority investment declined, according to an estimate from 2.1% in 2010 to total 51.7 billion euros, says the annual economic note on local finances presented Wednesday, November 17 by the bank Dexia.

Local governments carry out some 74% of public investment in France. According to the financial institution, this decline is due to the backlash of efforts in 2009 to provide solutions to the crisis, and a climate of uncertainty weighing on the development of local resources.

These investments were made primarily through self-financing (35.2 billion, plus 14.3%) and investment grants ($ 9.4 billion, 27.4% less). The new loans represent 18.5 billion (7.3% less) and repayments of debt, 13.7 billion (over 3.8%).Revenue of local totaled 192 billion euros (more than four percent), including 116.6 billion (over 5.8%) for tax revenue and 46.2 billion (over 0.7%) allocations state.

Management expenses were $ 152.6 billion euros (more than 3.8%), staff costs represented 55.6 billion euros (plus 3.2%). Gross saving communities increased 6.2% to 34.7 billion. Tax revenues have increased due to the rebound in transfer taxes, paid in real estate transactions. These rights have increased 32%, reaching 9.2 billion euros. They had fallen from 25.6% in 2009 and 9.5% in 2008 due to the economic crunches.

The revenue of the four local direct taxes (housing, buildings and undeveloped land, and compensation relay over 2009 business tax removed) increased by 4.3% (74.1 billion), after more than 8.3% in 2009 because of the slowdown in bases and increasing tax rates measured (plus 1.8%). The small increase in state appropriations due to an escalation of the financial state at half inflation.

Among the expenses, Dexia is a steady increase in social expenditure shares (plus seven per cent) related to the effects of economic crisis and the application of active solidarity revenue, which replaces the Minimum Income of Insertion.

For 2011 and subsequent years, Dexia considers that the constraints on public finances will be reflected in local budgets: a freeze on state grants, strengthening equalization between communities and between government and communities themselves, moratorium on standards. At the same time, communities will face the consequences of the implementation of the reform of local taxation, land reform, and reform of addiction.

European markets have closed higher Wednesday, as a result of buying on the cheap after a week of declines.

Concerns remain that the Irish situation, however, maintained the European stock markets under pressure.

In Paris the CAC 40 ended the session on a rise of 0.79% or 30.93 points to 3792.35 points. Scholarships Dublin, Madrid, Rome and Lisbon have also closed on increases ranging from 0.37% to 1.51%, while London and Frankfurt gained 0.19% 0.55%.Of the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 has been 0.75% and the Eurofirst 300 has awarded 0.56%.

If the principle of aid to Ireland was approved Tuesday night by finance ministers of the euro area, the standoff between Dublin and its European partners continued on Wednesday over the timing and scope of a support plan.

Bank stocks are the first beneficiaries of the agreement Tuesday.Societe Generale has gained 2.02% to 41.50 euros and Banco Santander of Spain 2.03% to 8.58 euros.

The drug also experienced a sustained session.

Britain's GlaxoSmithKline gained 2.43% to 1,239 pence, the markets welcomed the approval of Benlysta, possible future blockbuster, by U.S. authorities.

The Swiss Actelion jumped 9.09% to 54.60 francs, reacting to information seeking that Amgen, the world leader in biotechnology, is interested in an offer. Sanofi-Aventis took on his part to 1.72% 49.50 euros.

MEPs and member states failed to agree Monday on creating new resources for the EU.

Substantial differences between European states and several MEPs have led to Monday, November 15 evening discussions on the 2011 budget of the Union at an impasse, threatening a series of key projects such as overseeing financial or diplomatic service in Europe .

Regretting the "intransigence of certain states," the negotiators of the European Parliament called on Monday "Heads of State and European governments to take up the issue" to reach an agreement by the end of the year .

A summit of European leaders is scheduled in Brussels on 16-17 December.Negotiators had 21 days to agree, but the deadline expired at midnight Monday without result.

They have not stumbled on the budget figures: MEPs had already agreed last week to the principle of a limited increase of 3.5 billion euros (2.91%) of expenditure in relation to the 123 billion expected 2010 a ceiling of a dozen states led by Britain did not want to exceed.

Conciliation talks have failed more on matters of principle, the Parliament seeking the same time guaranteed to be more closely involved in discussions on the future EU budget."The failure was due mainly to the issue of own resources," said a diplomat, MEPs also demanding a commitment from 27 to discuss new financing unique to the EU budget which at least partially replace the national contributions.

Acoppement on the creation of own resources

These own resources, whether new taxes, innovative financing, or existing resources diverted to the EU budget, would prevent the budget discussions each year are subject to disputes between states are net contributors "and" net ", submitted to Parliament.

The Parliament's budgetary powers have been strengthened to support the Lisbon treaty, putting it on an equal footing with the 27 to agree on EU spending.It is not however the case on the issue of resources, where Parliament retains an advisory role, insisting, however some governments like the British Conservative David Cameron opposed the creation of new own resources and full program fiscal austerity at home.

The Speaker of Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, was received Monday "strong support" of a vast majority of political groups to defend a "strong position" against the 27.While a majority of States were willing to compromise, the negotiations have foundered on the intransigence of the delegations of Sweden, Dutch and British in particular, according to European sources.

The latest proposal submitted by the Belgian Presidency members reflected the "lowest common denominator" between states and was judged "inadequate" by MPs, according to several sources close to the Parlement.nLa Commission will have to now present a new budget on Tuesday.

The political impasse should then return to the table of leaders of 27 EU summit in December, a "risk" that the European Commissioner for Budget, Janusz Lewandowski, indicated he wished at all costs, there will éviter.Tant no decision for 2011, the budget will be frozen next year, month by month, to its 2010 level.

This would mean that the new External Action Service of the EU, diplomatic corps intended to help Europe to be better heard in the world, would lose just one month after its entry into service in December 2010 some 25 million in operating expenses for 2011. Similarly, it fails to 1.22 million euros of European agencies overseeing the financial sector, then they must start their business in January 2011.