Economic Analysis and Indicators

At his wishes for 2011, the German chancellor reiterated his support for the euro, while public opinion is very divided against the single currency.

Germany needs Europe and the euro, "the foundation of our prosperity," said Chancellor Angela Merkel at his best wishes for 2011, while the Germans seem to doubt that currency. "Europe is the month in the midst of a crucial test. We must strengthen the euro. It's not just our money. The euro is much more than a motto," said Merkel in his televised message that the Chancery has released the text in advance.

"We Europeans are united in our greater good. The united Europe is the guardian of our peace and our freedom. The euro is the basis of our prosperity," said the Chancellor. "Germany needs Europe and the single currency.For our own well-being as to fulfill our duties in the world, "says Merkel.

The German public is very divided against the single currency, particularly since the financial rescue plans for Greece and Ireland, and Germany is the main contributor. According to a poll published Monday in the popular daily Bild, 51% of them Germans are unhappy about the euro, against 44% who claim satisfied. Always according to the same survey, 49% of Germans want the Deutschmark back, against 41% who do not.

In the spring, when support for Greece diving in the financial turmoil, Merkel had shown great intransigence, poorly perceived by its partners. The pro-European commitment of Germany had even been questioned by many commentators.

L'Expansion. Com out her crystal ball. The debt crisis at the end of 3G, through the failure of the G20, here are our predictions for 2011. The debt crisis will get worse

The relief fund will certainly be perpetuated, but it will not stop the markets punish countries in difficulty by imposing prohibitive rates on bonds. Ireland will continue to struggle with its banks and Greece to reschedule its debt. Portugal and Spain are in turn required to seek international assistance. However, European governments will take steps to safeguard the single currency. The debt crisis of 2011 which will mark really makes the other side of the Atlantic. Not only is the new recovery plan based on tax cuts of $ 800 billion widen further the U.S. debt, but the state will have to come to the rescue of its bankrupt local governments.

New emerging markets will attract investors

The BRICs are so 2010 … If you believe the weekly The Economist, is among the "new emerging" we find returns on investment opportunities. If Turkey and Saudi Arabia will attract the attention of investors, Indonesia will be the real star of 2011, thanks to its innovative businesses, political stability and its growing middle class. Among the poorest and markets are also riskier countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan in Asia and Kenya, Nigeria and Rwanda in sub-Saharan Africa.

The French presidency of the G20 will fail

In any case, the G20 Nicolas Sarkozy will not meet the objectives set by the President of the Republic. I must say they are particularly ambitious reform the international monetary system and stabilize commodity prices.It is already optimistic to hope that China and the United States will be able to talk to coordinate their exchange rate policy and begin to rebalance their accounts. As for the fight against price volatility, particularly agricultural products, there will be discussions on ways to increase transparency in the derivatives markets, but London will veto any legislation truly binding, since it the City that are a lot of transactions.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn will quit the IMF

In 2011, DSK can no longer procrastinate as he has done throughout this year. If he wants to be the PS candidate for president, the head of the International Monetary Fund will go through the box "primary" and present his candidacy as early as June, as envisaged in the timetable agreed rue de Solferino.Although for him it looks like a timing trap, it is unclear how Dominique Strauss-Kahn, ultra-favorite in the polls, could resist the call of the race to the Elysee. It should therefore be resolved to resign from the IMF, in the middle of the French presidency of the G20. A first act of defiance against Nicolas Sarkozy, pending the duel of 2012?

The ISF will not be removed

Remove TFR: Nicolas Sarkozy has promised, and yet he will not. There will be a tax reform in 2011, which means the end of the tax shield and go through an overhaul of the tax on property. But a year of presidential elections, the president will not delete until the ISF, a measure that includes a significant political risk. Especially if he was replaced by a simple increase in taxation of capital gains on real estate or life insurance, which would also affect the middle class.LAI alleviated should continue, with a threshold higher tax or increase the rebate on the principal residence.

The CAC 40 will rise again

In 2011, the CAC 40 will advance. Finally … In 2010, the performance was bad, very bad, with a drop of 2.17% at December 28. Only the Nikkei did less well. However, large groups, which are debt free, have performed well: 83 billion profits expected for 2010, up 71% compared to 2009. But their market performance has been weighed down by the macroeconomic crisis of the public debt. Next year, analysts expect a recovery. According to a Reuters survey, the CAC 40, still stuck around the 3900 points, 2011-4200 should end points by the end of December 2011.

High tech will make his return to Wall Street

2011 should mark the return of IPOs for technology companies, after a long tunnel began in 2008. We could see LinkedIn, Skype, Butts (who declined an offer to buy Google at $ 6 billion) or Zynga on Wall Street. But the question everyone asks is: Facebook will be decided there this year? Demand is strong. On SecondMarket, are trading at prices of gold and now value the social network to over 40 billion dollars. More than eBay or Yahoo really If IPOs resume, it is possible that investors will Facebook eventually stomp out of the capital and reap their gains as the company is at its highest.Even if the leaders of Facebook would prefer to wait until at least 2012 before they go public.

3G will disappear

More and more people will buy a smartphone, and the trend will only increase: As with any high-tech product, smartphones are becoming less expensive. In addition, the progression of Android argues in favor of lower prices, relative to when the iPhone was the leading actor of the segment. Logically, more and more users will connect from their laptop, which will increase the risk of saturation of 3G networks. A problem that will be taken head on in 2011: France will adopt a regulation of net neutrality, which is likely to permit mobile operators to charge users based on their consumption and slowing some data flow .4G and licenses, which allow operators to offer a debit on the mobile is close to that of the fiber, will be allocated by the government. United States or Japan, 4G is already becoming reality.

The housing bubble will deflate

2010 was the year of all records: the price per square meter in the former has reached 7,500 euros in Paris, up 20% year on year, and lending rates are at their lowest since the post War. Borrowing cheap and aids to maintain artificially stone household solvency, while widening the gap between their income and amounts of transactions. Does 2011 will that of the meltdown? Notaries and estate agents agree that stabilization – or even falling – prices is inevitable. The austerity plan, but the slight rise almost certain loan rates, suggest. Remains to be seen how much.It will fall she also violent that the increase was marked in recent years? By analyzing the distance between household incomes and property prices over the long term, Jacques Friggit considering two scenarios: a rapid decline in the price index of over 30% by 2018, or stabilization prices in the next fifteen years, while incomes continue to rise.

And you, what does your crystal ball? What are the events that will happen next year, according to you?

Futures contracts on gold jumped more than 1% Tuesday meeting, crossing the bar at $ 1,400 an ounce for the decline of the dollar and the interest of Asian buyers.

The contract expired in February was up 20.9 dollars, or 1.5%, to 1,403.9 dollars an ounce on the COMEX 1:42 p.m. GMT.

"Asians do not stop to buy and want to reap as gold is about forty dollars below its historical highs," said a dealer in Singapore.

Highest on this contract is at 1432.5 million.

The dollar is under attack, mainly due to adjustments of positions at the end of the year and touched a record low against the Swiss franc.The small volumes involved in this holiday season accentuate the movements on the foreign exchange market.

Analysts expect the rise of gold will continue in 2011. To date, the fine metal has gained 27% over 2010, according to Reuters-Jefferies index of commodity and is about to enter its best annual performance since 2007.

According to Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures factors "as the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area" could propel gold in a range from 1.550 up to $ 1,600 an ounce next year.

After the recession of 2009, France experienced in 2010 an economic recovery welcome but insufficient to bring down high unemployment and public debt crisis in the euro area has increased the pressure for the consolidation of public finances.

While participating in the rescue of Greece and Ireland, the French authorities and had to work to reassure investors about their commitment to reduce deficits and their ability to maintain its rating on France "Triple A" now considered a national treasure.

Solely on the growth front, 2010 was a year of (relatively) pleasant surprises: while the government hoped for a year ago a very soft recovery, with GDP growth limited to 0.75% he could review its ambitions on the rise over the month.

The official forecast was increased to 1.4% in January, "at least 1.5%" in September and 1.6% a few weeks later. A few days ago, the economy minister, Christine Lagarde, evoked "a big 1.6%. A gradual rise that shows the method adopted this year by Bercy: setting careful … to reach beyond them.

This task may be more difficult in 2011, the economy has already forced the executive to review its ambitions downwards.France's budget for 2011 is built on the assumption of an increase of 2.0% against 2.5% expected in early 2010. Most economists are waiting to better than 1.6%.

The 2010 recovery was not enough, far away, to erase the losses of the previous two years.Thus, industrial production in France is still 10% below its level before the crisis.

The stimulus spending will nevertheless been substantial: more than 38 billion euros in total since 2008, spent to support the credit bail out the corporate treasury, or boost sales of cars through scrapping.

"RILANCE"

This device has allowed automakers to save at least 600,000 additional sales this year, a figure comparable to that of 2009 at a cost of about one billion euros to be paid by the State.

Symbol of public support for the takeover, scrapping not survive the New Year's EveAnd if Christine Lagarde was in July daring the neologism "rilance" unique mix of precision and recovery, to characterize the French economy, the recovery has actually lived.

Rest rigor.

The reduction of public deficits remain a key issue in 2011, probably even more than in 2010.

By lowering tax revenues and forcing the state to spend to support the economy, the crisis will end this year with a record deficit to about 7.7% of gross domestic product, which essentially corresponds to a hole 150 billion euros for the state budget.

The government intends to initiate next year a sustainable downward trend in the deficit to 6.0% at end 2011, end 2012 4.6%, 3.0% and 2.0% end 2013 end 2014.

On the menu bitter in 2011, the budget of combining tight expenditure control, downsizing of the civil service and movement of the plane on tax loopholes, pending an overhaul of the taxation of wealth in the spring.

But not painful measures such as the VAT hike awaits the Greeks, the British and the Portuguese, "said Minister of Budget, Baroin, who never misses an opportunity to lambast the" addiction to spending "some State services.

A figure illustrates the urgency of the matter: the first half, the French public debt was heavy with 102.5 billion euros, the equivalent of six months of minimum wage …per second!

"DIGEST THE CRISIS"

Soaring national debt is now the main concern of financial markets, seeking to identify the next potential victims of the debt crisis.

After plans for aid to Greece in May and in December to Ireland, Portugal and Spain are considered threatened.And France, despite its pivotal status of the euro area, no longer seems totally immune.

This turbulence and these differences have made a casualty: the euro, which lost more than 17% of its value between January 1 and June 7, falling from 1.43 to $ 1.19, and after a summer respite, has suffered further turmoil in the fall.

"2011 will not be an easy year," predicted Prime Minister Francois Fillon, to the prefects on December 13.

During this pre-election year, the Elysee Palace and the government economic policy should focus on two themes: the French Presidency of the G20, golden opportunity to display the voluntarism of Nicolas Sarkozy to reform the international monetary system, and fight against unemployment, with priority given to learning and alternation in helping young people and 340,000 assisted contracts that target long-term unemployed.

For on the employment front, 2010 will not solve anything.Mounted to 10% in late 2009, the unemployment rate in France (including Dom) has receded to 9.7% and more than four million people are enrolled in job center.

"The French economic fabric is in the process of digesting the consequences of the economic crisis and the digestion is complete," explains Karine Berger, chief economist of credit insurance group Euler Hermes. "By 2011 we will really recover. Or not."

While a former head of the Commission for Energy Regulation is sounding the alarm about the "dramatic consequences" of the French network vieillissment, his manager, ERDF, trying to reassure.

The Commission for Energy Regulation (CER) said Thursday "found (r) a degradation of power quality" of the grid, the manager of which ERDF has, meanwhile, praised the performance, noting that was "the most reliable in Europe."

"The CRE has been a deterioration in the quality of electricity supply," said the Commission in a statement referring to a report published in October. "This deterioration is due to the lack of investment between 1994 and 2004," she says.

In an interview published Thursday in Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, former Vice-President of the Regulatory Commission of Energy (CRE) Michel Lapeyre, warned against aging power grid, whose " consequences could be dramatic "he said.

The Commission, which states that Mr. Lapeyre refers in his interview to a document "that has never been validated by the whole college," said however that in 2010, "the charge for use of public power Electricity (TURP) proposed by the CRE has renewed investment of ERDF (…) whose effects will be felt gradually.

"The modernization of the network remains a priority for ERDF: 2.56 billion euros have been invested this year to improve the quality of electricity supply and to develop and maintain the network.These investments will increase by 10% in 2011, "says his side ERDF in a statement.

"The recovery of these investments has also led this year by a lower average outage time per capita than four minutes (it was 86 minutes in 2009)," replied Mr. Lapeyre including ERDF, which ensures that the French network "remains among the most reliable in Europe."

Finally, a spokesman for the electricity transmission network (RTE), manager of high-voltage network, for his part stressed to AFP the "tangible progress TEN investments in recent years."

This allows TEN to address the building needs of the transportation system related to the reception of new means of production (nuclear or renewable) to maintain and upgrade existing infrastructure and increase the interconnections that reinforce Security overall power of our country, "he said.

In 2010, 75 million euros in fines were collected from municipalities that do not reach the 20% quota of social housing provided by the SRU. Release issued on Monday a survey of municipalities that meet the minimum objective of social mix. The classification images of the worst performers among the cities with over 30,000 inhabitants.

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Genzyme argued Monday that its experimental treatment against multiple sclerosis display a much higher turnover than that estimated by Sanofi-Aventis, whereas the U.S. biotech seeking to be redeemed at a price significantly higher than $ 18.5 billion proposed by the French laboratory.

Genzyme, which specializes in the treatment of rare diseases, maintains that its experimental drug Campath against multiple sclerosis could achieve a turnover of 3.5 billion dollars and tried to convince investors Monday at a meeting in New York.

Few analysts believe that Campath, currently sold as a treatment against cancer and known by the generic name of alemtuzumab, will display the kind of revenue projected by Genzyme.

"This is a unique therapy," said the CEO of Genzyme, Henri Termeer."It is a therapy that modifies the care for these patients and gave the promise to completely transform this area."

He said the drug has the potential to be the most effective, least expensive and easiest to use of all treatments against multiple sclerosis.

"The market is very important is a market of 14 billion (…)", said Henri Termeer.

Sanofi for its part expects a turnover of up to $ 700 million for Campath.

It is this difference estimation based Genzyme to assert that it is worth more than $ 69 per share offered by Sanofi.

THE TALKS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

To break the impasse, counsel for Genzyme and Sanofi have talked to use the CVR (Contingent Value Rights Certificate) which would allow shareholders of Genzyme to obtain a premium price if the drug reached certain goals.

"I think that's how it's going to happen," said William Tanner, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets. "I imagine there will be a number in $ 70 and with some further based on what will this drug."

The two laboratories should continue to discuss the issue of CVG before the expiration of the offer from Sanofi on January 21.

Genzyme shareholders are very supportive of the idea of CVG as part of an agreement with Sanofi, said Henri Termeer.He estimated that the fair price of a CVG would be one that would allow the transaction to occur.

About possible discussions with other potential buyers, they are confidential, he said.

"In about six months we will see the first phase III clinical trial," said Henri Termeer.

Anyway, Genzyme reported that its own market research and those of an independent company having consulted many doctors in the world can anticipate a turnover of 3 to 3.5 billion for the drug.

According to Genzyme, the doctors consulted believe that the Compath be safer than Tysabri, Biogen Idec.

The independent research firm BioMedTracker provides a turnover of 1.6 billion dollars for Campath in 2019.

According to an analysis published in September by an independent research firm, the Campath could achieve a 5% market share of multiple sclerosis in its first year of marketing, 10% the second and third and 18% to 20% the fifth year and beyond.

According to Genzyme, alemtuzumab will be marketed under the brand Lemtrada for multiple sclerosis.

Monday on the Nasdaq, the action Genzyme ended down 0.2% to 69.65 dollars on the Nasdaq.

Investors and analysts believed that the acquisition by Genzyme Sanofi could be done on the basis of a price between 75 and 80 dollars per share.

The discount granted on the base rate will vary between 40 and 60% against 30 to 50% today. 625 000 French households benefiting from social tariffs for electricity.

The social tariff of electricity, benefiting some 625,000 households in France, will be lowered as of January 1, announced Thursday, December 16 the Minister of Industry and Energy Eric Besson.

The Minister referred to the Regulatory Commission (CRE), a draft decree providing for an increase of 10 points in the discount granted to beneficiaries of the staple fare of electricity, "he told a Speaking at the presentation of a report by the Energy Ombudsman on matters of energy billing.

The increase of this allowance will be effective from 1st January, he said.The discount granted today vary from 30 to 50% depending on household size, and should happen on January 1 at 40-60%. In parallel printer, base rates of EDF will rise by 3% in January.

Mr. Besson has also said he had asked the Directorate General for Energy and Climate establishing greater automaticity in the allocation of social tariffs for electricity, but gas. The government had already announced in September that he would submit before the end of a draft decree to make automatic the social tariff of electricity.

Social tariffs for energy, which enable low income households to benefit from a reduction in charges, profit was less than half of their potential rights holders.These do not make the default request information or embarrassment to claim them, according to a report on fuel poverty the Government issued in January.

Since the beginning of the year, the number of households benefiting from social tariffs for electricity, which was still 940,000 in late December 2009, dropped to 625,000 (-33%) with unknown reason.

Ghana has made Wednesday its entry into the club of oil exporting African countries by promising to use the proceeds of the "black gold" to strengthen its economic success.

The Head of State, President John Atta Mills, opened the taps of the oil in a ceremony televised on a floating platform 330 m long, located about sixty miles off the coast of the former "Coast of gold. "

The initial production of about 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) will be Ghana's seventh largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa.

This figure is expected to double within three years.

The commercial production came three years after the discovery of oil in this field, called "Jubilee" in honor of the fiftieth anniversary of independence in 1957.

"After a long wait, the day has finally come," said the head of state, who wore for the occasion blue overalls and safety equipment.

"(…) But this means that we bear a great responsibility.Especially for those who are in positions of leadership must ensure that it is a blessing, not a curse, "he warned.

Besides the national state oil company, the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), other companies participating in the pool "Jubilee" are the British and American Tullow Oil Anadarko Petroleum and Kosmos.

Ghana, second largest producer of cocoa after Cote d'Ivoire, took advice from countries like Norway on how to manage its oil sector.

Accra wants above all to avoid corruption and disorder that oil has brought to Nigeria's most populous country and the continent's economic powerhouse of West Africa.

Japanese stocks ended slightly higher Tuesday, investors are showing more and more confident about market prospects.

The Nikkei gained 0.22% or 22.88 points at 10,316.77 points, while the Topix broader took 0.50% or 4.49 points to 901.89 points.

Purchases by foreign investors to help support the market since early November.According to the data as last Friday, they were net buyers of Japanese shares last week for the fifth consecutive week.

On the values front, those relating to China have drawn their game after the announcement of higher than expected in China's industrial output in November.

Hitachi Construction Machinery has made 0.25% to 1,997 yen and Komatsu 1.18% to 2491 yen.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained 2.63% to 312 yen. The Japanese firm Mitsubishi Nuclear Fuel Co, linked to Mitsubishi Heavy, announced Tuesday the creation with the French group Areva in a joint venture in the United States in order to produce and to sell nuclear fuel.