Economic Analysis and Indicators

The Standard & Poor's last week signed its worst weekly performance in 15 weeks, but that does not mean that the correction on Wall Street, anticipated by many analysts, is complete.

The key factor likely to weigh on the U.S. stock market remains the high oil prices, which jumped amid violent political tensions in Libya and parts of the Middle East.

Employment figures better than expected on their side could be a factor supporting the rating, like the rather optimistic assessment of Warren Buffett, nicknamed the "Oracle of Omaha", the U.S. economy and prospects.

Economists polled by Reuters think the U.S. economy created 178.000 jobs in February. This macro-economic indicator, scheduled for Friday, is the principal of the coming week.

Statements from Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman who will speak during a speech Thursday, will also be expected, as the Fed noted cyclical – the Beige Book – which will be published Wednesday.

Last week, the S & P 500 declined 1.7%, which is a rather modest decline for the index shows an increase of over 25% since the beginning of September.

"We had anticipated a loss of at least 5% and it has not materialized.So do not expect that many investors take a position on the market at this level, "said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.

"With the accumulated earnings and continuing tensions in the Middle East, I do not think there will be lots of movement purchases following the withdrawal last week."

ENVIRONMENT RISKIER

Soaring oil prices, caused by a fall in supplies of crude from Libya, has weighed on the stock market, stakeholders fear that higher energy costs will weigh on economic recovery.

Last week, the price of U.S. light crude reached 103.41 dollars one point, a level which corresponded to a weekly increase of approximately 20%, before returning to below $ 100.

As the earnings season is now largely complete – Costco Wholesale, Heinz are the last components of the S & P 500 that have not yet published their accounts – Wall Street will be more than usually influenced by factors not making the world companies.

Bank stocks could suffer from the issue of foreclosures after Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo said Friday expect to pay fines in connection with the investigation of judicial authorities on the subject.

Prior to official employment, private practice Wednesday ADP will provide the data on the private sector. According to economists, ADP should report 175,000 new jobs for the month of February.

In recent months, statistics on employment in the United States offered a mixed picture, with a side job creation below expectations but on the other a lower unemployment rate, currently at 9%.

From the beginning of the week, new restrictions on short selling will come into force, which include implementation of a "circuit breaker" if the price of a share fell by over 10%.

The latter will then be suspended for the remainder of the trading session and the entire next day.

Faced with competition becoming more intense in the telecommunications sector, several major operators are struggling to defend their positions on their national markets.

The German Deutsche Telekom has announced on Friday expected to have a stable in 2011 after suffering a drop in earnings in the fourth quarter.

The phone operator has announced this year a target EBITDA (EBITDA) of 19.1 billion euros, against 19.5 billion in 2010 and also plans to generate free cash flow of at least 6, 5 billion euros.

The EBITDA in the fourth quarter reached 4.5 billion euros, a decrease of 10.3%, while analysts on average expected 4.65 billion euros.

Turnover has meanwhile fell 4.5% to 15.48 billion euros, in line with expectations.Deutsche Telekom says it wants to pay a dividend of 0.70 euro per share, lower than the 0.78 euro paid in 2009.

"We must face the headwinds of the economy, taxes in several countries and more severe competition," says Friday the chief executive Rene Obermann said in a statement.

TELECOM ITALIA CONVINCES ANALYST

Similarly, Spain's Telefonica, Telecom Italia, the Italian and Belgian Belgacom have suffered the impact of industry regulation and, especially in the Spanish case, the macroeconomic situation.

Most European operators have tried to offset sluggish growth in their domestic market through acquisitions abroad, usually without much success.

Sales of Deutsche Telekom in Germany have avoided the contraction in the fourth quarter thanks to sales of smartphones.

However, earnings and sales activities in the south-eastern Europe have fallen by more than 10% due to economic difficulties in Greece and Romania, as well as measures of deregulation in other countries.

United States, the results of its subsidiary T-Mobile USA, formerly the group's growth engine, seems to have stabilized, but the number of new subscribers has disappointed analysts and the stock has plunged.

About 11:00 GMT, Deutsche Telekom lost 1.71% to 9.75 euros while the sector index advanced by 0.06%.

The results of Deutsche Telekom have not excited the market, contrary to the announcements made by Telecom Italia and Telefonica.

The Italian operator has earned praise from analysts Friday by promising to increase its liquidity, reduce debt and increase dividends over the next three years.

According to Robin Bienenstock, an analyst at Bernstein Research, this goal is "modest, quite feasible" and "prudent" in light of the macroeconomic situation in Italy.

"We believe the company can do better than that," she said, noting that Telecom Italia would not require much investment in infrastructure over the next three years.

Action Telecom Italia has appreciated 4.68% to 1.095 euro.

TELEFONICA OPTIMISTIC DESPITE EVERYTHING

Telefonica to share its published results worse than expected, due to strong difficulties in its home market.

The collapse of the housing bubble in Spain has strongly affected its results by increasing the indebtedness of Spanish households, which also turn to new operators.

However, the group announced target a 2% increase in earnings this year.

Javier Borrachero, Kepler Capital Markets, said that goal was slightly higher than its estimate of 1.8%."If they succeed, while Spain is expected to remain low this year, it will be quite honest," he said.

The action Telefonica advanced 1.36% to 18.245 euros.

In Belgium, the incumbent Belgacom has estimated that the impact of industry regulation in 2011 would be the same as in 2010, and he hoped to maintain its dividend.

Belgacom expects its net profit fall by more than 2%, due to demand from regulators to lower the cost of calls from abroad with a mobile.

Belgacom gained 0.28%, to 27.325 euros.

The president's comments ironically on Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who has advocated higher wages in France while he directs the IMF imposes wage cuts in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Nicolas Sarkozy shakes hands with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn at the conference of the G20 finance ministers in Paris February 18, 2011

Nicolas Sarkozy quipped Wednesday, February 23 Council of Ministers of Dominique Strauss-Kahn in highlighting the contradictions between his comments on earnings and the International Monetary Fund's position in this field, reported to a government official told AFP.

At this Council of Ministers, the Head of State recalled that it had received last week the central bankers, including the head of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet, who believes that the "last stupid to do in Europe" is to increase wages.However, Nicolas Sarkozy continued, "I want to know the position of Director of the IMF," while "the IMF has imposed two years of wage cuts in Portugal, Ireland …".

He wondered "who spoke Sunday night on France 2, IMF Managing Director, Ms. Sinclair or Dominique Strauss-Kahn" by advocating higher wages in France. "What a pity not to have asked the question," he said.

8:00 p.m. guest of France 2, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF chief and candidate poll favorite to wear the colors of the president PS, had moved in France "more than 6 million workers earn less than 750 euros month, "advocating for the inclusion of" social suffering ".

Libya is the largest exporter of oil affected by the wave of protest in the Arab world. The situation is crude prices soar. And beating down the stock markets. French Petroleum Institute

Plagued by insurgency, Libya and Bahrain worry the financial markets more than did Tunisia and Egypt. These are, in fact, the first oil-producing countries affected by the wave of protest in the Arab world. Tuesday morning, a major oil field in Libya was stopped, according to Al-Jazeera. Accordingly, Brent light crude from the North Sea, exceeded Monday's 105 dollars a barrel, a first for two years. Ditto for the basket of OPEC crude oil, average price per barrel of seven members, which passed Tuesday the 100 dollars for the first time since September 2008.

Even if it is still far from the record of 140.73 dollars reached on January 4 this year, soaring oil prices worried the markets. The Paris bourse lost 1.5% Tuesday morning after already abandonné1, 44% on Monday. Air France KLM title recorded the largest decline (-4.4%). The European and Asian markets were similarly in the red.

If Bahrain, the small Gulf kingdom, is no longer a major oil exporter, this is not the case of Libya. The country of Colonel Qaddafi is the fourth largest African producer and exporter of two continent. Globally, the production arrives at the 12th position. Libya represents around 2% of world production, with 1.8 million barrels per day. In addition, the country has significant refining capacity.

Italy is the first affected by the crisis because it imports a quarter of that production.The Italian oil company ENI is one of the major operators. The group is also strongly linked to the Libyan authorities, with capital of 7.5% by close to Gadhafi. What could make it a potential target for protesters. On Monday, the stock has lost more than 5% in Milan.

Italy is not the only one concerned. Germany, France and Spain are also privileged clients of Libyan oil. France imports about 130,000 barrels per day, consuming about 2 million daily, or 6.5%. Total operates two large fields in Libya. One is located on the ground and therefore likely to be quickly affected by the unrest. On Monday, the company indicated that the two drilling areas functioned normally.But with the evacuation of part of its expatriates, the situation could change.

The presence of large stocks in OECD countries is sufficient to rule out any possibility of shortage. Nevertheless, already structurally high oil prices will suffer even more of a possible drying up of Libyan exports. It may require in the medium term, an increase in production quotas of OPEC. Tuesday morning, one of the main fields of drilling of the country is also stopped by Al-Jazeera.

The French sporting goods company Moncler could be listed on the Milan stock exchange by the summer of 2011, said an official of the majority shareholder, the fund Carlyle Group, in an interview with the newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore on Saturday.

According to co-fund manager for Europe, Marco De Benedetti, Moncler could be introduced in Exchange for a total amount equivalent to 10 to 12 times its EBITDA (EBITDA) 2011, about one billion euros.

"We would be able to launch the IPO before summer, in cooperation with the three banks pre-selected," said Marco De Benedetti.

The establishments in question are Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Intesa Sanpaolo

The U.S. investment fund Carlyle Capital owns 48% of Moncler, which is famous for its ski jackets lined with goose down.

Last October, the president and creative director Remo Ruffini Moncler had said the group wanted to wait at least a year before entering the Milan Stock Exchange.

The National Bank, the first Greek settlement, announced the launch of a takeover offer for the third largest bank, Alpha Bank.

Rumors of this operation had previously triggered a sharp rise in both titles, which were subsequently suspended by the exchange operator pending clarification.

At the time of suspension, Alpha Bank took 6.32% to 4.88 euros, National Bank 2.14% to 7.64 euros.

"National Bank confirms that on January 18, 2011, she submitted an offer to merge with Alpha Bank, NBG wrote in a statement.

The tender offers eight new actions against eleven National Bank Alpha Bank.

The British cabinet of human resources consultancy ECA International released its annual ranking of the world's most expensive cities for housing for expatriates. Rankings are based on the average price of an apartment of 80 m2, unfurnished. The calculation is relatively expensive in neighborhoods, expatriates tend to live in areas close to international schools, embassies or inner cities. In 2010, Tokyo maintains its No. 1 worldwide. Moscow tops the European rankings. Paris ranks fourth in Europe and eleventh in the world. The detail in images.Previous PauseSuivant tooth No. 10: Geneva Next Photo

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Growth was only 0.3% last quarter according to Insee. The Economy Minister Christine Lagarde, however, maintains its growth forecast for 2011 to 2%. Christine Lagarde has ensured that the figures represented "not a disappointment"

Growth in France was 0.3% in the last quarter of 2010 and 1.5% throughout the year, broadly in line with expectations although the government had hoped for a faster time, according to figures released Tuesday by INSEE. The performance for the fourth quarter of last year, which equals that of the third is below forecasts from the National Institute of Statistics, which was banking on a rising gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.5% or the Bank of France, who was counting on a surge of 0.6%.

After growth of 0.3% in the first quarter (revised up 0.1 percentage points) and 0.6% in the second and 0.3% in the third, it nonetheless reach the official target government throughout 2010.

The members of the executive had once hoped for a little start and an annual growth of 1.6%, as provided by INSEE, before moderating again their expectations. Most economists had expected them to grow around 1.5% compared to 2009, a year marked by a historic recession of 2.5%.In 2010, Germany has more than two times better than France's economy hit hardest by the crisis, rebounded 3.6%.

The Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said Tuesday its growth forecast for 2011 to 2% in France, after a moderate recovery of 1.5% in 2010, affected by strikes against pension reforms that have taken, she said an effect "most depressed" than expected.

Lagarde has ensured that the 2010 figures released Tuesday by INSEE represented "not a disappointment" because they corresponded "to the latest forecasts" of Bercy. "This is a sign that the recovery is there," she said on France 2.

According to the minister, the growth was somewhat worse than expected at the end of the year because "the period of October strikes had more depressive effect on growth than we anticipated, c ' is a little uncomfortable. "

"I hope the first quarter of 2011 will be much better," said Christine Lagarde.

For 2011, forecasting growth "remains at 2%," due to expected continuation of the upturn in employment and positive signs from businesses, including "Order books are full," she added.

Most economists and economic research institutes still feel too optimistic the government's goal for this year.

The minister also said that the deficit for last year would be below the expected figure of 7.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). "The deficit for the year 2010 we will certainly be below the figure that was expected. We will do a better performance than what was originally planned," she said.

The President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet called on developed countries to work towards strengthening the global financial system and improve coordination of policies in the euro area.

"We can not afford to be complacent," he said in an interview with Weser-Kurier of Bremen to be published Monday about what has been done to fight against the financial crisis.

"We were able to avoid a catastrophe which would have been worse than the 1930s. Business as usual would be a huge folly.(…) We know how the financial system was vulnerable and we must do everything possible to strengthen this fragile system so that in future such an event can be prevented. "

Jean-Claude Trichet said he supported the ideas of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to better coordinate economic policies.

"Monetary union which is based on the euro works well," said President of the ECB. "The currency is credible and has been proven to be ensured price stability. Now it's economic union to work well too. It was not the case in the past."

"Therefore we must strengthen surveillance of economic policies," he adds.

Private consumption increased only modestly since the depression of the second quarter of 2009, the ECB is concerned. This consumption rather weak due to stagnant incomes and the establishment of precautionary savings. The broken foot of the Austrian Finance Minister Josef Proell, on his arrival in Brussels for the summit which saw the birth of an EU rescue plan the Eurozone.

The recovery in the eurozone remains modest in comparison to what has been observed in previous crises, reflecting a weak consumption and investment, notes the European Central Bank in its monthly report published Thursday, February 10. "Despite a contraction stronger" than in the other three seizures recorded for forty years (1974/1975, 1980/1982 and 1992/1993), "Private consumption has increased only modestly since the depression of the second quarter of 2009 "wrote the ECB.

Stressing that the consumer influences second only stocks on growth, the ECB believes that it is "the key element that explains the rather modest increase of GDP" now compared with what had been observed at the three other crises mentioned. This rather weak consumption can be explained by the stagnation of real incomes but also incorporated the precautionary savings by households, continued its European monetary institution.

However, it should accelerate and contribute more to growth in the euro area, also supported by global growth and demand for European products, says the ECB. Third largest contributor to growth, government spending also play a lesser role in this crisis than in the previous note the ECB.

Furthermore, forecasters surveyed by the ECB have increased their inflation forecasts for the next two years. They expect inflation of 1.9% in 2011 against 1.5% previously and 1.8% in 2012 against 1.6% previously. These figures, derived from a survey conducted in January with a fifty forecasters remain below the medium-term objective of the ECB is to keep the inflation below but close to 2%.

The ECB had announced in December expect a 1.8% inflation in 2011 and 1.5% in 2012. Figures, however it may revise upwards in March, according to analysts, because of inflation above 2% in euro area since December, mainly due to energy prices and raw materials.