Economic Analysis and Indicators

While the unemployment rate reached its highest level since 1997, to 21.3%, the Spanish government foresees a fivefold increase fines for businesses that employ workers illegally. Spanish unemployed are queuing in front of a labor office in Madrid in November 2010.

Unemployment in Spain rose by almost a point in the first quarter to 21.29%, its highest level since early 1997, according to official figures published Friday, April 29, the day the government approved a new plan against undeclared work. In late March, the country was approaching the symbolic figure of 5 million unemployed, with 4.91 million job seekers, announced the National Institute of Statistics (INE). With a rate of 21.29% against 20.33% in late December, unemployment almost equals the level of first quarter 1997 (21.30%) and remains the highest among OECD countries.

Hours after the publication of this figure, the Cabinet approved a plan to fight against the underground economy, which would represent nearly a quarter of GDP and millions of jobs not reported. A study published in early March by the Foundation of Spanish savings banks (func) moonlighting amounted to 17% of GDP and 4 million jobs. The union of technicians from the Department of Budget (Gestha) estimated at 23.3% of GDP or about 245 billion euros, and a third study, published in late 2010 by Visa Europe, made a similar calculation, evaluating the underground economy at 205 billion euros in 2009, representing 20% ​​of Spanish GDP.

"The size of the underground economy in Spain is among the highest in the OECD, with Portugal, Greece and Italy," said Javier Diaz-Gimenez, an economist at the IESE Business School, which explains the weak controls and sanctions, combined with high labor costs, which may encourage illegality. "Clearly, with so many underground economy, all figures (official, ed) are fraudulent," says he, which "can remove 2, 3 or 4 points at the rate of unemployment."

The real unemployment rate would be 5 to 10%

"The real unemployment rate is certainly not 20%," adds Carlos Sebastian, professor of economics at the Complutense University of Madrid. "Me, I would say it is between 10 and 15%," he said beforehand, citing three areas conducive to labor: construction, particularly important in Spain, services and agriculture.This could explain the absence of major social protest, while 1.39 million Spanish homes have all their members officially unemployed.

Difficult to know the exact impact of the underground economy on the rate of unemployment, because people working in black might as well declare themselves as legal workers (which may be true, they combine legal and illegal activities), unemployed or inactive. Two effects were found: less tax revenue "for the state and" under-valuation of GDP, "said Carlos Sebastian. Adverse consequences for the Spanish economy, which is struggling to recover from the crisis, with sluggish growth (-0.1% in 2010), committed to reducing public deficits, to 6% in 2011 against 9.2% in 2010.

The plan will encourage corporate offenders back on track but, unlike the two previous plans between 1984 and 1991, "there will be no amnesties," he assured the Minister of Labour Valeriano Gomez: "For three months, 31 July, the sanctions will remain the same after they harden very significantly. " Some fines will be multiplied by five, he detailed, adding that companies voluntarily correct their situation have to pay their dues until the date of regularization and not on prior periods, but not enjoy the rights associated with ( public aid, for example) that from this date.

Bayer noted Thursday its full-year sales and earnings thanks to strong demand for its pesticides, the soaring prices of food commodities pushing farmers to invest more in production.

The first German pharmaceutical company said it aimed to present an EBITDA (EBITDA, EBITDA) adjusted to over 7.5 billion euros.EBITDA before he anticipated a close to this amount.

In the first quarter, EBITDA increased 22.3% to 2.23 billion euros, while the consensus provided by Reuters was 2.08 billion.

CropScience division, one of the world's leading producers of agricultural pesticides, in 2010 had suffered from bad weather and competition from cheaper products but has since rebounded to favor a milder climate and harvest and planting which are trading near the highest in two and half years.

The industrial conglomerate 3M reported Tuesday in a profit above expectations in the first quarter, through the holding of its sales in emerging markets, and industrial conglomerate of consumer products and raised its annual targets.

The net profit was 1.08 billion, or $ 1.49 per share, against 930 million ($ 1.29) a year ago.Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S gave EPS of $ 1.44.

Turnover increased 15% to 7.31 billion (consensus: 6.95 billion).

The action gained 1.1% in before-hours trading.

"Our business is growing on almost all our markets," comments George Buckley, chief executive of 3M.

Segment in the industry and transportation, the largest of 3M, turnover was up by 17%, driven by rising demand from the aerospace and energy.

For the full year 2011, 3M, known for its Scotch tape or for his notebooks, Post-It, said anticipating EPS of between 6.05 and 6.25 dollars, taking into account the impact cause negative consequences of the earthquake of March 11 in Japan.

In the first quarter, the Japanese crisis has cut about 3 cents EPS. Over the year, the cost should register between 10 and 13 cents.

Exposure of 3M in Japan is higher than its competitors. The group will realize 9% of its sales.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke United States, modeled on its counterpart of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet, held for the first time on Wednesday a press conference after the meeting of the U.S. central bank on interest rates.

This will be the most popular event of a week shortened in many countries by the Monday holiday of Easter week will also see the first major award of State debt since the U.S. warning of the rating agency Standard & Poor's on the fiscal deficit of the United States.

These three events – meeting on interest rates, press conference and auction – all relate to the big question mark that hangs over markets have become very hesitant: When the Fed Will it stop its ultra-accommodative monetary policy establishment in favor of the crisis?

The briefing Ben Bernanke Wednesday – the first press conference ever held by a planned Fed chief in nearly 100 years of history – is an attempt by the institution to say more clearly what she has in mind.

The Fed normally has now planned to hold four releases per year.

"Everybody will watch," said Marc Ostwald at Monument Securities.

The method of the press conference, systematically used by the President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet after the meeting of the Board of Governors on the first Thursday of the month, has demonstrated its effectiveness.

The head of the central bank of the euro countries and uses keywords that are many codes to prepare markets for monetary policy decision to come.For example in the area of ​​inflation, he speaks of "vigilance" or prevent "second-round effects".

"EXTENDED"?

Ben Bernanke, the search keywords will be "long time" to learn more about the duration of the accommodative monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan will not be outdone in monetary policy meeting on Thursday with a triple and consequences disaster that struck the archipelago (earthquake, tsunami, nuclear accident).

Economists at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have therefore reduced their growth forecast for Japan from 1.7% to 0.8%.

Investors were also interested in a series of U.S. Treasury bonds – two, five and seven years – Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

These programs are conducted safely and in principle it should be the case again.But investors have in mind that they occur after the change S & P's outlook on its triple-A rating from the United States, which turned negative, due to massive debt and deficit of the country.

Pimco, the first global bond fund, has already decided to abstain on the U.S. State debt, while Jim Rogers, a major investor, believes that there is a bubble in the U.S. state debt.

"At some point, we will realize that it is absurd to lend money to the U.S. for 30 years in U.S. interest rates to 3%, 4%, 5% or 6% "Has he told Reuters Insider."The market is about to give up."

In his view, the trigger could be when the Fed will end its program to purchase quantity, in principle in June.

Alstom announced Wednesday the signing of a letter of intent with Shanghai Electric for the creation of a joint venture that would create the world leader in boilers for power plants to coal.

If the project goes ahead, the joint venture based in Shanghai, which will be called Shanghai Electric Boilers-Alstom, will be equally owned by both groups.The group's headquarters would be located in Singapore.

In 2010, the combined sales of the two groups accounted for some 2.5 billion euros.

China is the largest world market for coal-fired boilers.

"By combining the strengths of both partners, the company would have a share of the high competitiveness of Shanghai Electric and its strong market positions in China (…) and secondly the large and ancient near Alstom with electricity producers in the world, "explained the two groups in the release.

The joint venture "would cover manufacturing operations with new boilers for the supply of spare parts," it said.

The statement added that Alstom and Shanghai Electric Boilers would be the preferred supplier of Alstom and Shanghai Electric "for equipment and spare parts for their respective activities of turnkey power plants and services."

"The creation of Alstom Boilers Electric Co-Shanghai will be the first comprehensive, global, established by Alstom with a Chinese partner," says CEO Patrick Kron, Alstom in a statement.

A press conference is scheduled for Thursday at 10:15 am in Paris.

The German ProSieben TV group announced Wednesday it had sold its assets in Belgium and the Netherlands for 1.23 billion euros, an operation that should enable it to pay down its debt.

ProSieben, majority owned by private equity firms KKR and Permira, said it had sold the business to consortia led by the Finnish media group Sanoma.

This sale comes four years after the Munich-based group bought SBS Broadcasting for 3.3 billion euros, going into debt to try in vain to compete with the RTL group.

ProSieben's debt amounted to 3.02 billion euros at the end of 2010, pushing the chief executive Thomas Ebeling to review the group's assets to determine their strategic nature.

ProSieben plans to improve its ratio of net debt to EBITDA at 1.5-2.5 in the short or medium term against 3.3 at the end of last year. The company said that the strategic review of its activities was now finished and added that its assets were Nordic longer for sale.

Around 13:15 GMT, action ProSieben fell by 1.18% to 18.48 euros, some analysts pointing to a slight disappointment because of the withdrawal of Nordic sales despite the good prices obtained for other assets sold.

U.S. light crude ended down sharply Monday on the New York market.

The contract matures in May ended in a loss of $ 2.54, or 2.32%, to 107.12 dollars a barrel.

Upon the close of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Brent yielded 1.88 dollars (1.52%) to 121.57 dollars.

Sidelined by its main shareholder, the owner and founder of the station refuses to leave his post as president. His listeners support it.

The overwhelming support of listeners Skyrock its founder Pierre Bellanger would he have been successful and because of the choice of Axa, the majority shareholder of the radio? Having removed the iconic boss of the station Tuesday, April 12, Axa Private Equity fund now offers him the appointment of an independent mediator to propose a solution that simultaneously protects the interests of the company, its employees , its listeners, its users and its shareholders. "

"The ratings success of the group both on Skyrock radio on the Internet is undeniable, but its results are less economical, certainly not up to the number of listeners and Internet users who trust and Skyrock Skyrock . com ", said in a statement the group into conflict with Pierre Bellanger, who intends to purchase the station.

Pierre Bellanger camped in his office

The fund said that because of these economic outcomes that the Board of Directors of the Company Nakama, the holding company group supervision Skyrock, "decided to dissociate April 12, 2011 as president and CEO, Pierre Bellanger confirmed as Chair and appoint Marc Laufer as CEO. "

For the moment Marc Laufer, the new CEO of debauched NextRadioTV could not take office, the station was occupied by the hosts and listeners. For his part, Pierre Bellanger camped in his office since Tuesday evening. He does come out once the conflict resolved.

The German manufacturer of lorries MAN said Thursday it would start producing cars in Russia, hoping to benefit from the emergence of this market has experienced strong growth in the first quarter of 2011.

MAN, owned 30% by Volkswagen, said it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the City of St. Petersburg for the production of about 6,000 trucks.

European manufacturers consider Russia as a market with high growth potential while their sales are halted in developed countries.

The Association of European commercial (AEB) said Monday that 32,246 vehicles were sold in Russia between January and March, an increase of 59% over the same period of 2010.

The Russian market is dominated by heavy Kamaz, detained up to 11% by Germany's Daimler.

The changes at the head of Renault and the difficulties of the Japanese automobile industry have no immediate impact on the activity of the carmaker in France, said Wednesday the group's director of manufacturing.

Consequence of the false espionage, Renault noted Monday in their duties more of its leaders, starting with its chief operating officer Patrick Pelata, called for another position within the alliance with Nissan.

"Our roadmap for 2013 and 2016 is traced, we find new modes of operation, including the replacement of Patrick Pelata," said Gerard Leclercq, also a member of the Renault Group Executive Committee, on the sidelines of the launch a new engine plant at Cleon (Seine-Maritime).

"But at this stage, our backlog is at a level that has the highest known. The short-term consequences of industrial activity and commercial activity, we're managing them, he n 'there are not, "he added.

The plant produces Cleon 2700 engines a day and exports 70% of its production, particularly to the group's partners such as Nissan.The site is also important to Japan's electronic components, increasingly used today in the steering motors.

Asked about the impact of production problems encountered by the Japanese after the earthquake that struck the archipelago, Gérard Leclercq said that Renault had so far always found ways to overcome these problems over all its manufacturing sites , including Cleon.

"It is clear that if the plants were brought Nissan to stop more than they have been arrested in the near future rather, there could be some consequence for the plant in Cleon, but so far we saw no impact, "he added.

NEW DIESEL emits less CO2

Renault on Wednesday launched the site Cleon producing a new diesel engine representative for the alliance with Nissan initial investment of 230 million euros.

The block "Energy dCi 130" third engine for the alliance, will emit 20% less CO2 than its predecessor 1.9-liter thanks to a smaller displacement to 1.6 liters, for a power equal to a system "stop and start" – a first for Renault – and a system of regenerative braking.

A little more expensive to buy than its predecessor, it will initially weather models midrange like the Renault Scenic, in the month of May, or the Nissan Qashqai, and eventually the cars from the future platform high-end of the alliance.

The production capacity will reach 150,000 units per year from 2012 and is expected to increase in coming years.

Cleon, one of two engine plants of Renault in France, employs 4,200 people. Created in 1958, is among the major sites of the oldest group still active. The plant will also produce from 2012 electric motors and connection systems to equip the electric range of the diamond group.