Economic Analysis and Indicators

The banks of the European Union do not need a massive injection of capital but the crisis of sovereign debt continues to pose challenges to the sector, said Tuesday the EBA (EBA).

"The EBA does not call for a major emergency recapitalization of the banks of the European Union," she says in a statement.

"Stress tests recently conducted by the EBA showed that European banks have significantly strengthened their position in terms of capital and that are able to withstand adverse macroeconomic scenarios," says ABB.

"This opinion has not changed by the new publications of exposure to sovereign debt."

Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Saturday called on developed economies to act quickly against the risk of another recession and strengthen the equity of European banks.

Tuesday morning, the president of MEDEF, Laurence Parisot, strongly criticized the call Christine Lagarde to recapitalize European banks.

EFG Eurobank and Alpha Bank, respectively number two and three of the banking sector in Greece, will announce Monday a merger agreement to jointly face the challenges of the Greek economy, banking sources reported.

The agreement, which should lead to the largest bank in Europe's southeast by the assets, should enable the two facility to avoid having to use the mechanism of public provision of liquidity is likely to trigger a wave of consolidation in the sector, analysts said.

"The boards of both banks will sign the agreement and the announcement Monday morning and a press conference will take place at midday" told Reuters a source familiar with the bank.

The two banks have sent an invitation to the press for a joint press conference at 1100 GMT Monday, without specifying the subject.

"This is a friendly merger agreement between Eurobank and Alpha Bank, with the participation significantly from the Qatar Investment Authority" (QIA), told Reuters a banker of Alpha Bank.

The new entity will have 150 billion euros in assets, eight million customers and 80 billion euros in deposits, said a third source.

According to an official of Eurobank, the operation, if it is approved by shareholders of both groups take the form of an exchange of shares.

The QIA, sovereign fund of the Gulf kingdom, was already a shareholder of Alpha Bank.With this agreement, it will become a significant shareholder of the new group, according to sources, one of which states that the QIA has signed the agreement Saturday.

Analysts have welcomed the prospect of the merger, including Eurobank, which failed in July to stress test bank.

"This is a strategic decision that goes in the right direction and protect the two banks of worse to come for the Greek banking sector," Judge Takis Zamani, Beta Securities.

"Qatar is likely to inject money into the new entity at a time when Greek banks face a lack of liquidity, the losses in the ISP (plan of voluntary participation from the private sector with Athens, Ed), and higher impairments on credit, "said he.

Alpha Bank shows a market capitalization of 1.07 billion euros, against 1.02 billion for Eurobank. Their shares are down by 50% and 51% since the beginning of the year.

The first bank, National Bank of Greece, for its part has a capitalization of 2.88 billion euros.

Following the resignation of Steve Jobs from his position as CEO of Apple, investors are questioning the ability of the action of the group to outperform over the long term.

If the title Apple has declined Thursday to close only 0.65% in the Nasdaq, many investors believe that the roadmap for Apple in the medium and long term has become blurred because Steve Jobs embodied the strategic vision of a group that has successfully launched new markets with the iPod, iPad, or iPhone.

Under the leadership of Steve Jobs, Apple has become the second market capitalization in the world with a value of about $ 350 billion and now close behind Exxon Mobil.

"In the long term, if Steve Jobs' health is deteriorating or if it is pulling more and no longer leads the group's strategy, we will probably reduce our position in half," warns Channing Smith, co-director at Capital Advisors to Tulsa, Oklahoma."People like Jobs are not so common," he added.

"The impact of the absence of Steve Jobs will be limited at least for the next two years for all products that come out during this period bear the imprint" But Judge James Meyer, chief investment officer at Tower Bridge Advisors, based in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

Investors feel that Steve Jobs will continue to guide Apple in becoming the chairman of the board of directors of the group, but they especially fear the day when the former head of Apple finally left the company.

"In the long run, considering it is an irreplaceable icon, Tim Cook (…) Is the man for the job? We do not know," asks James Meyer.

"We see before our eyes a legend heading for the exit.Only time will tell if the company has retained the innovation and creativity that has put in place, "said Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management, which manages a portfolio of $ 16.3 billion .

Keith Wirtz, like other fund managers with Apple actions, questioned his commitment on the title. It is, however, betting that the culture instilled by Steve Jobs Apple will continue to inspire, with its new role that will keep him involved in major projects of the group at the apple.

Most analysts maintained their bank recommendation to buy Apple for the title, with a price target of between 460 and 525 dollars on the next 12 to 18 months, but underline the high risk of volatility.

The ounce of gold fell Wednesday below $ 1,800 an ounce in response to the statistics of U.S. durable goods orders and the rally on Wall Street started the day before.

The gold spot back around 1770 dollars per ounce. He had previously recorded a peak of 1,853.61 dollars an ounce.

Orders for durable goods in the United States have increased significantly more than expected in July. The U.S. Commerce Department reported a 4.0% increase in orders, after a decline of 1.3% (revised from -1.9%) in June

Analysts polled by Reuters on average expected a 2.0% increase.

The Prime Minister admitted that the unions will not reach 2% growth this year. Hence the need to reduce the public deficit of 3 to 4 billion more. The government could then partially back on the device exemption from the aditional hour. Prime Minister Francois Fillon (by the Assembly on 8 June 2011).

The French government intends to achieve 3 to 4 billion euros in additional savings this year and about ten billion in 2012 to meet the financial commitments of the country, told AFP on Monday the President of the General Confederation of Small and medium enterprises (CGPME) after a meeting with François Fillon.

The measures for 2011 should reduce the public deficit "3-4000000000" more by the end of the year and will be included in the supplementary budget on aid to Greece debated in Parliament in September, said the president of the CGPME, Jean-Francois Roubaud, after talking on the phone with the Prime Minister.

For 2012, the extra effort to reduce spending and tax loopholes should represent "ten billion", he added.He said the prime minister needs those motivated by the fact that growth will be "lower" this year to 2% forecast previously. The forecast of 2.25% for 2012 should be revised downward.

François Fillon has assured the employers' intention to "not touch the SMEs", but rather to take steps to "the financial sector and banks," he said Jean-Francois Roubaud. According to the President of the General Confederation of Small and Medium Enterprises (CGPME), the prime minister is also trying to return, at least in part, on the social contribution exemptions enjoyed overtime since 2007.

François Fillon is expected to announce Wednesday the measures to enable France to reduce its deficit from 7.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) last year to 5.7% this year and 4.6% next year, according commitments made by the government.

The U.S. Justice Department is investigating about the view that Standard & Poor's focused on asset-backed mortgages whose collapse led to the 2008-2009 financial crisis, said Thursday night a source close to the .

The survey – which according to the source is trying to distinguish between what the S & P analysts wanted to do and what they were told to do – was launched before the rating downgrade does the United States at the beginning months.

The Justice Department has also conducted a survey of Moody's, one of two main competing S & P on the notes she had assigned to structured products during the crisis, said another source.

Asked by Reuters by telephone and e-mail, a spokesman for Moody's could not be reached immediately.

The Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), Constable of U.S. financial markets, has also opened an investigation into the possible role of S & P, a division of McGraw-Hill, in the crisis, said the first source.

Representatives of the SEC and Justice Department have declined comment.

The New York Times had first reported the investigation of S & P focused on whether the agency had assigned the notes to dozens of biased asset-backed home loans before the financial crisis broke out in 2008.

The Justice Department was interested in cases where S & P analysts want to assign notes to some of these assets before being contradicted by leaders of the agency, said the daily.

A spokesman for S & P noted that among the principles guiding the action of the particular agency were "analytical independence and objectivity", adding that the company had taken steps to strengthen the implementation of these principles .

"In recent years, S & P has received several requests from various government authorities regarding asset-backed U.S. mortgage.We have cooperated and continue to do so, "said the spokesman.

It is currently unclear whether Fitch (Fimalac group), the third major rating agency, is also being investigated by the Justice Department.

Neither Moody's or Fitch have lowered their ratings on the United States.

The Spanish will have to tighten their belts even more. The Socialist government is expected to announce Friday the new austerity measures to try to reassure markets. An employment agency in Malaga. Spain has an unemployment rate of over 20%

The Spanish socialist government is expected to announce Friday the new austerity measures to try to reassure markets while allowing voters to three months of general election in November.

Analysts expect the government, which seeks to save five billion euros, announced measures which do not affect the voters of the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE), avoiding including unpopular measures like higher taxes or cuts in health services.

The President of the Government Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in June assured that Spain would reach the deficit target of 6% of GDP in 2011, as promised. The deficit in 2010 reached 9.2% of GDP against 11.1% in 2009.

Analysts said the objective of Madrid in reducing the deficit will be difficult to achieve in view of the sluggish growth observed in the country and concerns about slowing global growth.

After reaching record highs, the cost of borrowing in Spain is again on the decline after the Spanish treasury bonds by the European Central Bank (ECB). José Luis Zapatero has advanced the parliamentary elections in November 20, four months ahead of schedule. The Popular Party (PP, opposition) is favored by polls to vote.

With Reuters.

Registration for unemployment insurance in Britain in July posted their strongest pace since May 2009, according to official figures released Wednesday.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.9%, the highest since February 2010, against 4.8% in June

The number of job seekers who applied for compensation rose by 37,100 last month, announced the Office for National Statistics, far beyond the increase of 20,000 expected by economists.

By the standards of the International Labour Office, wider, Britain had 38,000 more unemployed in the second quarter, bringing the odds against unemployment on the ILO to 7.9%, while economists anticipating a figure steady at 7.7%.

Executive Director of the IMF believes that states should support the short-term recovery and redress public finances in the medium term. IMF Executive Director Christine Lagarde at a news conference in Washington July 6, 2011

Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, on Monday called on governments around the world, and first of all "advanced economies" not to kill growth by fighting against the debt. "Fiscal consolidation has to solve an equation delicate neither too fast too slow no," writes Christine Lagarde in an article published in the Financial Times, entitled "Do not let the slowdown budget block the global recovery."

For the IMF chief, "the current market turmoil [...] has shaken confidence in the economy in the world and prompted many to conclude that all the political possibilities had been exhausted," but " this impression is false and could lead to paralysis. " Christine Lagarde, who took office in July, thus ensuring the continuity of the message of his organization.

Under his predecessor, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF argued in effect for over a year for the advanced countries, which have seen their debt soar with the financial crisis occurred in 2007, implement strategies 'fiscal consolidation that are favorable to growth.

If the "crisis exit strategies" discussed in late 2009 and early 2010 are no longer appropriate for the advanced economies, the IMF regularly reminded that there is still room in the short term, for fiscal stimulus well-calibrated provided they are accompanied by a strong commitment to reduce deficits in the medium and long term.

In the United States was the route chosen initially by the government of President Barack Obama, but that it is unable to follow since the Republicans took over the House of Representatives in January.They have made deficit reduction their main policy objective and do not want to hear about stimulus spending.

The gallery of Christine Lagarde appeared while austerity voted or being prepared in a number of European countries are worried because of their size.

First effect of the reform, more than 8700 senior unemployed, who have paid enough but have not yet reached the legal age of retirement, will have to extend their registration job center. Almost 1500 unemployed persons over 50 years in late fees will have their benefits terminated.

According to a note published Friday by Unedic Les Echos, over 8700 unemployed people over 50 will have to extend their registration job center, failing to qualify for a waiver of job search. Previously unemployed at the end of rights, who have contributed enough quarters to get a full pension, but not yet of legal age, could benefit from the retirement equivalent allowance (REA) that was the join between unemployment and retirement.But the allowance paid by the state, which gave them nearly 1000 euros, was abolished from 1 January.

Among the unemployed concerned, born after 1 July 1951, nearly 1,500 are in the end will see their rights and benefits terminated, according to this note is an extrapolation based on 2010 data. The exact figures will not be known until early 2012.

The unions demand the restoration of the EAR. In September 2010 Prime Minister Francois Fillon has said a new system would be established once the social partners have negotiated the new unemployment insurance agreement. It came into force on 1 June but the new system promised has not been established."The decline of the legal age of retirement has the effect of older people remain longer unemployed and some of depriving them of rights to compensation," said the president of the Unedic Bonnand Gaby (CFDT ).