Economic Analysis and Indicators

Iran has stopped selling its crude oil to the French and British oil companies, said Sunday the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum.

"Crude exports bound for British and French companies have been stopped. We sell our oil to new customers, "said Alireza Nikzad, spokesman for the Ministry

. The de decision is akin to retaliation by the Islamic republic to the embargo on imports of crude from Iran who come into force on 1 July in the European Union …..

…. EU sanctions, decided last month by the bloc, are intended to punish the prosecution's nuclear program tehe ran, that Westerners suspected of wanting to develop the atomic bomb. Iran denies this and claims to cover only the civilian uses of nuclear energy.

The Iranian government warned on 4 February that it would reduce its oil deliveries destined for "some" European states.

Alireza Nikzad said that Tehran was studying possible new destinations for its exports of crude.

The Greek government has summoned the deputies Saturday slingers to provide support to the austerity measures demanded by the EU and the IMF for the implementation of a second rescue plan, otherwise they commit the country to "an unknown and dangerous path" which he says will lead to bankruptcy and international economic isolation.

The leader of New Democracy (ND, conservative) Antonis Samaras, while criticizing the austerity policy of Greece sinking ever more into recession, urged é ; read of his party to support the second bailout, worth 130 billion euros, failing which their applications would be rejected for the upcoming legislative. 

The coalition of Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos has an overwhelming majority in parliament, which should ensure the adoption, scheduled for Sunday, a series of new austerity measures including a further reduction of public expenditure, of about 3.3 billion euros this year.

But six members of the government have already resigned in protest against the scale of austerity measures, among them a 22% decrease in the minimum wage.

"The consequences of uncontrolled failure would be incalculable for the country, not just for its economy (…). This would take us on a path unknown, dangerous, "he said Saturday Deputy Minister of Finance, Filippos Sachinidis

. In a newspaper interview Imerisia, he portrays the disaster in which he said Greece would fall if it did not honor the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on March 20

. "Let us ask ourselves what it would mean for the country the loss of its banking system and not be able to import raw materials , pharmaceuticals, fuel, food and basic technologies, "he said

. The Greek government on Friday approved evening the bill involving the country in the reforms demanded by the EU and the International Monetary Fund for the implementation of the second bailout. 

While a 48-hour strike against austerity entered its second day, Saturday, fifty communist militants have deployed two huge banners on the ramparts of the Acropolis. "Down with the dictatorship of the monopolies and the European Union", they proclaimed.

FIFTEEN BILLION FOR BANKS?

Seven thousand demonstrators gathered in the center of the capital, according to figures released by the police. No overflow has been reported, unlike Friday when police fired tear gas towards protesters throwing Molotov cocktails and stones.

Members of the ND, which has a strong lead in the polls for parliamentary elections planned a priori in early April, should support the austerity measures Sunday, in the whole. But Samaras was keen to warn politicians of his party, the second largest group in parliament after the PASOK (Socialists).

"This is obviously a matter of party discipline," he said before a parliamentary committee, adding that any slingers would be excluded from elections of April.

The far-right party LAOS has left the government coalition Friday and ordered his four ministers to resign. Two members of PASOK have also slammed the government's door in protest against the harshness of austerity.

Former Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou has also wished to draw members of PASOK to vote austerity measures.

"I've lost friends, my family suffered, I lost my job, I was insulted, dragged through the mud like no other politician in this country," he told the elected PASOK parliamentary group.

"Yet all this is nothing compared to what our people expect if we do not choose the right path. Despite all the anger we feel as we boil, we must persevere, "he told them

. Minister Finance Evangelos Venizelos said on Saturday it would take perhaps another 15 billion more to rescue the Greek banks, thereby confirming the EU estimates

.

The European Union calls on the other hand the Greek government to provide details of further cuts in public spending of $ 325 million Euro

. It also requires a clear commitment from party leaders of the coalition government to implement austerity measures .. …….

Businesses can use reduced hours for a period of two months, instead of three months minimum as far. Moreover, Unédic will compensate the employee at the first non-working hours and not from the 51st hour. Agency employment center in Nice

The social partners have completed Monday, February 6 negotiations on simplification of the partial unemployment, desired by the government, lamenting the CGT still not be reached "unification" of different compensation schemes. Following a meeting at the Paris headquarters of the MEDEF, the CFDT, CFE-CGC, CFTC and FO said they would sign the draft agreement inter-professional, the CGT had not yet made its final decision. The side of employers, the MEDEF, UPA and CGPME should also give their approval.  

Despite disagreements, all stressed the need to be pragmatic in these times of crisis, short-allowing companies to cope with downturns without fire. This agreement simplifies one of the two systems of compensation available in case of partial unemployment: the partial activity of long duration (APLD), far less used than the conventional allocation. Businesses will be able to use the APLD for a period of partial unemployment for two months instead of three months minimum as far.

Moreover, Unédic will compensate the employee at the first non-working hours and not from the 51st hour. Thus the State and indemnify the employee Unédic up to 7.23 euros in the first hour (7.84 euros for companies with fewer than 250 employees), against 5.23 currently, some welcome support for the employer.  

The company is committed to keeping the employee twice the time

The agreement "simplifies the device", especially for small businesses, said the negotiator of the CFDT Lawrence Berger. "We are still far from what is sought, namely the unification of devices for partial unemployment," lamented his side Maurad Rabhi, the CGT, the first French union. Moreover, "nowhere in this text, it was possible to the consideration that was negotiated in 2009, which was to preserve jobs," he said.

When a company uses the APLD, she is committed to preserving the jobs twice the time during which employees were to short. For example, an employee experiencing an inactivity of three months, the company agrees to keep at least six months. This agreement will be tested until September and will be given a suite "in light of experience." To set this up, Unédic will release 80 million euros, which will add 40 million remaining on a budget of 150 million dedicated to short released in 2009.

This text comes as the government announced last week the elimination of prior administrative authorization. So far an employer who wanted to have recourse to short should apply to the administration which had 20 days to notify its decision. During the "Social Summit Emergency" on 18 January President Nicolas Sarkozy announced measures against unemployment, and including € 140 million to boost part-time work.

Activity in the services sector in France in January continued the upturn observed in December, Friday show the final results of the monthly survey from Markit director of purchases.

The PMI rose to 52.3 Segment, against 50.3 in December, and remains well above the 50 level that distinguishes growth from contraction. A first estimate, two weeks ago, had given it to 51.7.

The survey also showed a recovery in the "new business", the sector index standing at 50.4, against 49.8 in December. The sector index declining business prospects, however, from 58.2 in December to 54.5 in January.

The composite PMI ahead of his side in January to 51.2 against 50.9 in the first estimate and 50.0 in December.

"Although the latest PMI data point to a strengthening of growth in the French private sector at the beginning of 2012, signs of underlying weakness of the conditions remain, "observed Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit.

"The new business, especially, do not record a marginal growth while the outlook for activity displayed a low of almost three years. The climate of general uncertainty continues to prevail among both businesses and households in strengthening the government austerity measures, the prospects of the service sector remain French misguided for the first quarter of the year, "he adds

.

The pace of job creation in the private sector slowed in January in the United States following the sharp rise the previous month, according to survey results published monthly ADP e on Wednesday. Some 170,000 jobs were created last month in the private sector, while the market was expecting 185,000 new jobs. The December figure was revised downward to 292,000 jobs created instead of the 325,000 initially announced. This report is jointly published the company ADP and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. According to Alexander Hoder, economic analyst at FTN Financial, "that the figures should be higher in the future to the rate of unemployment is falling." This number precedes the monthly statistics of employment for the month of January which will be published Friday. The markets expect the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.5% and 150,000 net new jobs in the public and private non-farm, but after 200,000 announced for the month of December.

European shares rebounded Friday after several sessions of decline, especially after a Reuters information that the Member States of the European Union are considering, as part of the future permanent mechanism for stability of the euro area, to give to involve the private sector in the financial rescue of a country.

This discussion is part of wider ongoing trade reform on the European Treaty, on which Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel agreed Thursday in Strasbourg, it was said sources familiar with the matter.It does not however affect the participation of banks and insurers in the second EU aid package to Greece, where they pledged to remove 50% of their claims to the country.

The information bounces European markets, which operated in the red after a disappointing auction of Italy.

According to the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, the fight against fraud and tax evasion was never as effective as that from the arrival in the five-year of Nicolas Sarkozy. Info or intox? The budget minister Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse presented on Thursday a report on the work of tax administration in recent years to fight against fraud and evasion, "a government priority," says the Minister of Budget. She said the government has given the IRS means that he had never been given. It concludes that the fight against tax fraud, reinforced by 60 new measures, has never been effective since 2007. What is it really?

In 2010, the results of tax audits totaled 16 billion euros, against 15 billion in 2009. Since 2007, the fight against tax evasion would have to get 50 billion euros in total, according to Bercy.Please note, these figures represent the amounts of fees and penalties notified. But all is not returned into the coffers of the state. According Drezet Vincent, the union unified national taxes (SNUI), the effective rate of recovery of tax claims is 50% after two years and 75% after four years.

A priori, this figure of 16 billion is quite a good result. A report of the Council of samples required (CPO) estimates because tax evasion between 20.5 and 25.6 billion euros a year. A rate of fraud detected from 60 to 80%. But the report of CPO, which dates from 2007, did not take into account tax evasion. Other estimates seem closer to reality: that of the European Commission, which evaluates tax evasion in France between 2 and 2.5% of GDP (40 to 50 billion euros), or that of which SNUI provides a range of 42 and 51 billion euros.

Dexia has paid 1.5 billion euros in its first two institutional shareholders that they carry out acquisitions of securities of the Franco-Belgian bank until 2008, the Financial Times reported Friday.

According to the newspaper, Holding Communal, an organization representing large municipalities in Belgium, has borrowed 1.2 billion euros to Dexia Bank Belgium (DBB), the Belgian branch of Dexia specializes in bank deposits.These funds were largely used to participate in two capital increase of Dexia Group in 2006 and 2008.

Arco, which invests on behalf of a Belgian trade union, has in turn borrowed 275 million euros, back into the capital of Dexia in fund-raising, according to the FT.

These two entities jointly owned 35% of Dexia, and are still represented on the board, the newspaper said.

The Franco-Belgian bank has actually borrowed money which it owned to finance its capital increase.

In addition, the FT reported that Dexia agreed in collateral on its loans its own shares, which implies that any collapse of the stock price is likely to generate heavy losses.

Dexia's market capitalization has increased from about 21 billion euros in 2006 to one billion euros to date.

This funding at the time had aroused the concern of regulators in Belgium, says the FT. However, if they are illegal in most countries and now banned in the European Union, Dexia has not broken the law then in effect.

According to the financial daily, the British bank HSBC dream to make an offer on DenizBank, Turkish subsidiary of the Franco-Belgian bank.

It has already received expressions of interest, including the Qatar National Bank (QNB), the sovereign wealth fund Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) holds half the capital, and the first Russian bank Sberbank.

The European Union must reform its treaties to prevent in the future of its member states to create problems for others, as is the case now, especially for Greece, said Sunday the president of the Central Bank Jean -Claude Trichet.

He was speaking on Europe 1 for two weeks at the end of his term, and when European countries are trying to stem the crisis caused by the Greek debt and its impact on banks that have lent money.

"We must think about the future. Tomorrow, I think we need to change the treaty to be able to prevent a member of the euro area to roam and create problems for all others," he said.

France wants a "collective European solution" to the issue of recapitalization of banks in the euro area and will not use, for its part, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), said Wednesday the spokesman of the French government.

President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged Sunday to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit under the French presidency in early November in Cannes.

This solution involves a recapitalization of banks in Europe, weakened by their exposure to sovereign debt of Greece and other countries in the euro area.

According to the spokesman of the French government, the collective solution will be presented at the European Council of 23 October in Brussels, at which Nicolas Sarkozy could inform Washington and Beijing before the G20 summit.

"We have no doubt about the strength of French banks but there is turbulence in financial markets that cause the increase of capital of European banks has become a necessity," said Valérie Pécresse during the proceedings of the Board of Ministers.

"Faced with this request to increase the equity of banks, France wants a European collective solution," she said."We will look at all the European banks, identify those that have the greatest weaknesses and help them recapitalize."

Under the Europe Agreement of 21 July on the financial rescue of Greece and the strengthening of the EFSF, the fund money in the euro area will lend money to states who need to recapitalize their banks.

"But France will not appeal to EFSF," assured Valérie Pécresse, who is also Minister for the Budget, which has however not rule out state intervention.

Anticipating BASEL III

"We value the contribution of private capital.Now, if public capital is needed, well, the French government is ready to face a public demand for capital by banks, "she said.

The French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Tuesday that French banks had committed to increase their capital levels "to 9% of their balance sheets (…) instead of the 7% expected in 2013."

He told the National Assembly that banks could be achieved by mobilizing their income – for those who make money – and private capital, "if necessary, ultimately," the state capital.

The three major French banks, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale, have accelerated the building of their own funds in an attempt to reassure investors about their ability to withstand the debt crisis in the euro area, which has already forced the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia to a dismantling.

They said they were able to achieve an equity ratio of "hard" ("core tier one") of 9% or more in 2013, as part of the new banking regulations Basel III will come into effect .

This regulation requires banks a minimum ratio of 7%, while Britain and Switzerland are already asking their institutions to go beyond 10%.

"We want to anticipate the implementation of these rules," said Valérie Pécresse.

"Europe must show its solidarity and at the same time give themselves a collective set of rules in terms of equity, recapitalization and strength," she said.

Concerning the European Agreement of 21 July, that Slovakia is the last country in the euro zone that have not ratified, which blocks the implementation, she said to believe a new vote of the Slovak Parliament, this time positive.

"This issue was raised during the Council of Ministers and the French government has confidence in the Slovak government to hold a second vote quickly to validate the agreement of 21 July," she said.