Economic Analysis and Indicators

Hewlett-Packard reported Wednesday evening by a decline of nearly 44% in quarterly profit, weighed down by weak sales of PCs and printers, which has reduced the title in after-hours trading.

The U.S. group has reported net earnings of $ 1.47 billion in the first quarter of its fiscal year, ended in January, or 73 cents a share, against $ 2.6 billion ( $ 1.17 per share) a year earlier.

Excluding items, HP displays earnings per share (EPS) of 92 cents. Analysts on average expected 87 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S.

Revenues declined 7% to $ 30 billion, a level slightly lower than the consensus.

HP saw its sales decline in its three main divisions: PCs, printers and business machines.

After the publication of these results, the action has lost more than 3% in after-hours transactions.

The average price of a liter of unleaded 95 rose to € 1.58 last week and that of unleaded 98 amounted to 1.62 euro. The diesel has meanwhile increased to 1.42 euro per liter.

The price of gasoline at the pump, for the third straight week, in France reached new highs, according to data dated Friday and released Monday by the Ministry of Sustainable Development. The diesel, however, still below its 2008 peak, but is close to its highest since the beginning of the year, reached last month.

According to ministry data, the average price of a liter of unleaded 95 rose to € 1.58 last week and that of unleaded 98 (whose sales are much lower in SP95) amounted to 1, 62 euro. Both fuels and exceed the record levels set a week earlier (respectively € 1.5787 / l and 1.6184 euros / l), according to figures compiled by the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (DGEC) .

The diesel has meanwhile increased to 1.42 euro per liter Friday euro against 1.4180 the previous week. It is close to its highest of the year (1.4240 euro on Jan. 13), and its record in spring 2008 (1.4541 euro). The heating oil prices have also reached a new peak at 1.02 euro per liter, but retailers now expect a "slight easing," said the French Federation of fuels in a statement.  

Since late 2011, gasoline prices prance record after record in France, powered by a dual effect of geopolitical tensions (Iran, Nigeria …) that keep crude oil prices at very high levels, and the weakening of the euro against the dollar, which boosts the cost of black gold once its converted value in the single currency. Tehran said Sunday he stopped all oil sales to France and Britain, two EU countries most advanced in promoting sanctions against Iran.

This announcement, symbolic, since the two countries have already stopped their purchases to Iran in late 2011, could increase pressure on prices by increasing market fears of an escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which pass 15 million barrels of crude per day. The selling price at the pump are national averages calculated by the DGEC from data provided by service stations. Diesel sales represent about 80% of French consumption of motor fuels, the unleaded 95 just under 15% and 98 unleaded around 5%.

European shares rebounded Friday after several sessions of decline, especially after a Reuters information that the Member States of the European Union are considering, as part of the future permanent mechanism for stability of the euro area, to give to involve the private sector in the financial rescue of a country.

This discussion is part of wider ongoing trade reform on the European Treaty, on which Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel agreed Thursday in Strasbourg, it was said sources familiar with the matter.It does not however affect the participation of banks and insurers in the second EU aid package to Greece, where they pledged to remove 50% of their claims to the country.

The information bounces European markets, which operated in the red after a disappointing auction of Italy.

According to the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, the fight against fraud and tax evasion was never as effective as that from the arrival in the five-year of Nicolas Sarkozy. Info or intox? The budget minister Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse presented on Thursday a report on the work of tax administration in recent years to fight against fraud and evasion, "a government priority," says the Minister of Budget. She said the government has given the IRS means that he had never been given. It concludes that the fight against tax fraud, reinforced by 60 new measures, has never been effective since 2007. What is it really?

In 2010, the results of tax audits totaled 16 billion euros, against 15 billion in 2009. Since 2007, the fight against tax evasion would have to get 50 billion euros in total, according to Bercy.Please note, these figures represent the amounts of fees and penalties notified. But all is not returned into the coffers of the state. According Drezet Vincent, the union unified national taxes (SNUI), the effective rate of recovery of tax claims is 50% after two years and 75% after four years.

A priori, this figure of 16 billion is quite a good result. A report of the Council of samples required (CPO) estimates because tax evasion between 20.5 and 25.6 billion euros a year. A rate of fraud detected from 60 to 80%. But the report of CPO, which dates from 2007, did not take into account tax evasion. Other estimates seem closer to reality: that of the European Commission, which evaluates tax evasion in France between 2 and 2.5% of GDP (40 to 50 billion euros), or that of which SNUI provides a range of 42 and 51 billion euros.

According to the German Chancellor, the current generation is facing "a testing history," and this is "to show that Europe can reach a turning point" with this financial crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday at the Conservative party conference that Europe knew "may" with the debt crisis "its time the most difficult since the Second World War." "Europe (live) one of the most difficult times since the Second World War, perhaps even its most difficult hour," she warned at the conference of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to Leipzig in the former GDR.

"Every generation has its political challenge," said the Chancellor, noting that the generation of post-war Chancellor Konrad Adenauer had built Europe and that of Helmut Kohl German unity and European.

A report of the creditors of Athens believes that the refinancing needs of the country may rise to 440 billion euros in the darkest scenario, against 109 billion announced in early July. Greece in the storm

Rigor more poisonous than a solution? Troika seems at least begin to doubt the effectiveness of reforms undertaken by the austerity Greece. A confidential report of the creditors of Athens assumes that the country's situation is even worse than before starting the measurements. "Greece must prepare for a recession longer and more severe than that announced at the beginning of treatment," reports the BBC, citing the report.

According to this document, the need may arise in Athens for the next year to 252 billion euros, against 109 billion before the summer. Troika evokes even a worst-case scenario, where these needs would rise to 440 billion.The deadline after which Greece is supposed to be able to refinance market risk it being postponed for 2021, as originally intended, to 2027. According to the document, if the situation remains unchanged, the Greek debt will peak at 186% of GDP in 2013, before declining to 152% and 130% in 2020 to 2030.

For a discount of 50% of private debt

"The aid plan adopted in July (with a number of austerity measures) reduces the rate of debt but the effect is more than balanced macroeconomic and political" troika concerned. By virtue of its low situation, Athens may not be able to implement these reforms at the same time, according to the document.

"Greece will fail to juggle internal devaluation (through lower wages, tackling its budget deficit and the completion of its privatization program" ensures creditors.Privatization also loses in profitability every day. The recession and the collapse of markets by lowering the value of assets Greek, the product could yield maximum disposal of businesses by the state increased from 66 to 46 billion euros since the beginning of austerity.

Troika and urges government and private sector to put their hands in the leg as soon as possible. It ensures that private creditors should decide on a discount of 50% of the country's debt, so that it reaches 120% of GDP by 2020. In addition, "Greece needs public support significant long-term and sufficiently generous" insists the document. He believes the need for participation of public partners to 114 billion euros, if private creditors play the game of the discount to 50%.

The Deposit and Consignment Office (CDC), La Banque Postale and Dexia have reached an agreement on modalities for resumption of the activities of local government financing of French Dexia in the dismantling of the Franco-Belgian bank, reports Tuesday the daily Les Echos.

The newspaper said without citing sources, initially, the CDC will take 65% stake in Dexia Municipal Agency, the SCF for the refinancing of loans granted by banks to local communities.

La Banque Postale will take a 5% DMA, which was valued at 380 million gross, or 250 million net, the difference being the cost of necessary liquidity (estimated at 130 million euros) to operate a such vehicle, the newspaper which states that Dexia will retain 30%.

Les Echos added that this ownership structure will evolve in the production of new loans.

"The share of Dexia aims to reduce, but the way that La Banque Postale will strengthen remains to be defined," writes the daily.

The CDC, which represent the investment of 162.5 million euros, will retain a majority of DMA so that the vehicle remains the best financing conditions in the market related to its "AAA" rating.

According to Les Echos, DMA, which is currently a stock of 77 billion euros in loans to local governments, will be renamed in the coming months and will work exclusively for the new bank of French local authorities, a joint venture will be owned 65% by La Banque Postale and 35% by the CDC.

The Board of Directors of Dexia must rule on the agreement Wednesday, which will be submitted in the coming days to instances of La Banque Postale and the CDC, the paper said.

The agreement must also obtain clearance from the European Commission.

Despite the green light Slovak EFSF and the new consensus in Europe to recapitalize banks, there are still some gray areas to be clarified before the euro area out of the crisis. An overview. The logo of the euro to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

The yo-yo scholarships continues. After jumping on Wednesday with the hope that the comprehensive plan to rescue the euro zone was well on track, European stock markets closed lower on Thursday. Paris dropped 1.33%, 1.33% Frankfurt, London 0.71%, 3.7% and Milan. The questions or the concerns of investors are doing now on the details and in particular the implications for banks of the measures.

Greece is close to the partial default

Despite the agreement on the payment of 8 billion euros by its creditors, the scenario of the fault beyond the initial charge for the year rose 21% to Athens.The level of potential losses on the country's debt is not yet official but "the discussion focuses on a discount of 50%," said a government source on Thursday in Europe. But determining the level of the discount "is very open, said a source in Brussels told Reuters. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors. Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure. " This scenario therefore a deletion of the Greek debt has at least prompted European leaders agree on bank recapitalization.For all creditors of Athens will have to place new provisions in their accounts, which will weaken their balance sheets.

The recapitalization of banks is finally Cohosh

If the IMF has long been the only one to ask for urgent recapitalization of European banks, the idea is now accepted by all, including France. She is now driven by Brussels, which would raise the capital ratio to 9% against 7% today, to reassure the markets strength. The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso delivered his script to get there. The banks will first have to rely on private sources of capital. If they fail, the states can participate by lending institutions. And if they do not have the means, the European Financial Stability Fund will he also intervene with the banks.

Increase the firepower of the EFSF

Just approved by the Slovak vote, the new enhanced EFSF is already considered insufficient to address emerging risks since July. It is therefore to do to participate in the recapitalization of banks and lending to troubled states – Italy, Spain and Portugal in particular – and avoid a scenario in the Greek.

Two scenarios are being considered to "maximize" its strength as stated Jose Manuel Barroso. Either turn the EFSF bank and let buy from the ECB, as would France. Or allow to act as an insurer from the holders of debt fragile, and guarantee them some of the losses in case of default of the countries concerned.However, the idea, a moment on the table to increase staffing at state EFSF seems ruled out, including Berlin refused.

The ECB, Germany and the banks resist

This "maximization" dear to Barroso does not delight everyone. Including the main concerned with two options on the table, the European Central Bank (ECB). The institution said it is "not appropriate" to use leverage by financing it with a banque.Une position shared by Germany, which fears that this requires the get their hands in their pockets to bail out the ECB. Germany refuses to elsewhere as the EFSF can be used to bail out banks in countries that are not under assistance. France has partially agreed with this view, stating that the State was ready to inject public funds into financial institutions without seeking the ease Europe.

Remaining banks, concerned about the forced recapitalization. The President of the Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, is such that this debate is "against-productive." "The money will come certainly not private investors, but rather states that will raise new funds," he said, quoted in the Financial Times. "And they will do so by increasing their debt levels, while the key problem lies in the ability of governments to restore confidence in public finances," he adds.

France wants a "collective European solution" to the issue of recapitalization of banks in the euro area and will not use, for its part, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), said Wednesday the spokesman of the French government.

President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged Sunday to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit under the French presidency in early November in Cannes.

This solution involves a recapitalization of banks in Europe, weakened by their exposure to sovereign debt of Greece and other countries in the euro area.

According to the spokesman of the French government, the collective solution will be presented at the European Council of 23 October in Brussels, at which Nicolas Sarkozy could inform Washington and Beijing before the G20 summit.

"We have no doubt about the strength of French banks but there is turbulence in financial markets that cause the increase of capital of European banks has become a necessity," said Valérie Pécresse during the proceedings of the Board of Ministers.

"Faced with this request to increase the equity of banks, France wants a European collective solution," she said."We will look at all the European banks, identify those that have the greatest weaknesses and help them recapitalize."

Under the Europe Agreement of 21 July on the financial rescue of Greece and the strengthening of the EFSF, the fund money in the euro area will lend money to states who need to recapitalize their banks.

"But France will not appeal to EFSF," assured Valérie Pécresse, who is also Minister for the Budget, which has however not rule out state intervention.

Anticipating BASEL III

"We value the contribution of private capital.Now, if public capital is needed, well, the French government is ready to face a public demand for capital by banks, "she said.

The French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Tuesday that French banks had committed to increase their capital levels "to 9% of their balance sheets (…) instead of the 7% expected in 2013."

He told the National Assembly that banks could be achieved by mobilizing their income – for those who make money – and private capital, "if necessary, ultimately," the state capital.

The three major French banks, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale, have accelerated the building of their own funds in an attempt to reassure investors about their ability to withstand the debt crisis in the euro area, which has already forced the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia to a dismantling.

They said they were able to achieve an equity ratio of "hard" ("core tier one") of 9% or more in 2013, as part of the new banking regulations Basel III will come into effect .

This regulation requires banks a minimum ratio of 7%, while Britain and Switzerland are already asking their institutions to go beyond 10%.

"We want to anticipate the implementation of these rules," said Valérie Pécresse.

"Europe must show its solidarity and at the same time give themselves a collective set of rules in terms of equity, recapitalization and strength," she said.

Concerning the European Agreement of 21 July, that Slovakia is the last country in the euro zone that have not ratified, which blocks the implementation, she said to believe a new vote of the Slovak Parliament, this time positive.

"This issue was raised during the Council of Ministers and the French government has confidence in the Slovak government to hold a second vote quickly to validate the agreement of 21 July," she said.

The U.S. economy has created far more jobs than expected in September, easing fears of a recession but failed to bring down a high unemployment rate, show official statistics published Friday.

Last month, 103,000 non-farm jobs were created, according to the Labor Department, while economists on average had forecast 60,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate however remained unchanged from one month to the other at 9.1%, a level "unacceptable" for the White House.

"We clearly need a faster economic growth to put Americans to work," could be read on the blog from the White House after the release of employment figures.

The plan for the use of some $ 447 billion announced last month by President Barack Obama is necessary to avoid a breakdown of the economy and lower unemployment rates, said one of the most senior economic advisers the White House.

"It's always a comfort when employment growth is better than expected, but (…) it's not nearly enough," Gene Sperling found on CNBC.

Statistics in September partly reflects the reintroduction of 45,000 employees of Verizon in the number of jobs created, they were not in August because of a strike.By excluding these employees, 58,000 new jobs were created.

The disappointing figures in August, which showed zero job creation, have been revised to bring out 57,000 new jobs. That of July was also revised upward to 127,000 against 85,000 previously.

Overall, the private sector has created 137,000 jobs, 100,000 against and 42,000 expected in August.The public sector has eliminated 34,000 jobs to him.

RELIEF

The employment figures feed for investors hope that the United States can avoid another recession despite gloomy summer and while the Federal Reserve this week reiterated its readiness to take further steps to support faltering economy.

Last week, the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) U.S. second quarter was revised upwards to 1.3% against 1.0% in the first estimate.

Recent indicators of the manufacturing sector, business spending and auto sales leave now think the economy is doing better than expected in the third quarter, despite the debt crisis that worries the European side of the Atlantic.

"The markets will show a little relief, as this supports the idea that we are not going to go into another recession, but it is doing," Judge Robert Lutts, president of Cabot Money Management.

Hourly wages have also increased by 4 cents in September after falling all the previous month.They then recorded their first decline since October 2009, pushing the savings to its lowest level for over a year and a half.

"The increase in job creation (…) is comforting and exciting to the market. But it seems premature to use these numbers to say, regarding the economy in general, as we got out of the inn "moderates John Kilduff, partner of Capital hedge fund in New York Again.

In September, the U.S. economy has eliminated 13,000 manufacturing jobs, after having destroyed in August 4000.

Economists estimate that the economy must grow by at least 2.5% per year and create at least 125,000 jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate to rise.