Economic Analysis and Indicators

The average price of a liter of unleaded 95 rose to € 1.58 last week and that of unleaded 98 amounted to 1.62 euro. The diesel has meanwhile increased to 1.42 euro per liter.

The price of gasoline at the pump, for the third straight week, in France reached new highs, according to data dated Friday and released Monday by the Ministry of Sustainable Development. The diesel, however, still below its 2008 peak, but is close to its highest since the beginning of the year, reached last month.

According to ministry data, the average price of a liter of unleaded 95 rose to € 1.58 last week and that of unleaded 98 (whose sales are much lower in SP95) amounted to 1, 62 euro. Both fuels and exceed the record levels set a week earlier (respectively € 1.5787 / l and 1.6184 euros / l), according to figures compiled by the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (DGEC) .

The diesel has meanwhile increased to 1.42 euro per liter Friday euro against 1.4180 the previous week. It is close to its highest of the year (1.4240 euro on Jan. 13), and its record in spring 2008 (1.4541 euro). The heating oil prices have also reached a new peak at 1.02 euro per liter, but retailers now expect a "slight easing," said the French Federation of fuels in a statement.  

Since late 2011, gasoline prices prance record after record in France, powered by a dual effect of geopolitical tensions (Iran, Nigeria …) that keep crude oil prices at very high levels, and the weakening of the euro against the dollar, which boosts the cost of black gold once its converted value in the single currency. Tehran said Sunday he stopped all oil sales to France and Britain, two EU countries most advanced in promoting sanctions against Iran.

This announcement, symbolic, since the two countries have already stopped their purchases to Iran in late 2011, could increase pressure on prices by increasing market fears of an escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which pass 15 million barrels of crude per day. The selling price at the pump are national averages calculated by the DGEC from data provided by service stations. Diesel sales represent about 80% of French consumption of motor fuels, the unleaded 95 just under 15% and 98 unleaded around 5%.

Britain's International Power, a subsidiary 70% of French GDF Suez, said Wednesday that it would be difficult to achieve its earnings target for 2013 due to lower prices in the gen eration of hydroelectricity in Brazil.

For 2011, International Power displays a current operating profit up 9% to 3.1 billion euros, with an increase of 18% in Latin America. This region accounts for more than a third of operating income group.

The gross operating profit (EBITDA) for the year totaled 4.3 billion euros.

Obtain additional one billion euros will be difficult, says the group.

"After the high levels of hydroelectric generation in Brazil, prices underpinned by the free market are now lower than in 2011," the group in a statement.

"Without an adjustment of these prices, the impact on our project will make it difficult Jirau our goal of an RBE of one billion euros in 2013 from projects under construction."

In exchange, the value was down 3.4% to 331 pence in the morning. It is the largest decline in values ​​of the FTSE.

"One wonders if there will not be only 0.8 to 0.9 billion euros of growth that will be achieved," said Angelos Anastasiou, an analyst at Investec. "Instead of an EBITDA of perhaps 5.3 billion euros in 2013, it might finish at 5.1 to 5.2 billion euros, that is, ; say down 2% to 4% with similar declines in EPS. "

Earnings per share for fiscal 2011 to 27.6 pence, slightly higher than the expected 27.2 pence, according to the forecast of analysts provided by the company.

This year, says International Power, growth will be supported by new plants came on stream at the very end of last year and new capabilities that should be operational later in 2012.

Activity in the services sector in France in January continued the upturn observed in December, Friday show the final results of the monthly survey from Markit director of purchases.

The PMI rose to 52.3 Segment, against 50.3 in December, and remains well above the 50 level that distinguishes growth from contraction. A first estimate, two weeks ago, had given it to 51.7.

The survey also showed a recovery in the "new business", the sector index standing at 50.4, against 49.8 in December. The sector index declining business prospects, however, from 58.2 in December to 54.5 in January.

The composite PMI ahead of his side in January to 51.2 against 50.9 in the first estimate and 50.0 in December.

"Although the latest PMI data point to a strengthening of growth in the French private sector at the beginning of 2012, signs of underlying weakness of the conditions remain, "observed Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit.

"The new business, especially, do not record a marginal growth while the outlook for activity displayed a low of almost three years. The climate of general uncertainty continues to prevail among both businesses and households in strengthening the government austerity measures, the prospects of the service sector remain French misguided for the first quarter of the year, "he adds

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European shares rebounded Friday after several sessions of decline, especially after a Reuters information that the Member States of the European Union are considering, as part of the future permanent mechanism for stability of the euro area, to give to involve the private sector in the financial rescue of a country.

This discussion is part of wider ongoing trade reform on the European Treaty, on which Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel agreed Thursday in Strasbourg, it was said sources familiar with the matter.It does not however affect the participation of banks and insurers in the second EU aid package to Greece, where they pledged to remove 50% of their claims to the country.

The information bounces European markets, which operated in the red after a disappointing auction of Italy.

The richest woman in Germany, Susanne Klatten, has strengthened its position in the capital of SGL Carbon, distancing and Volkswagen in the race to control the "champion" of carbon fibers.

BMW, Klatten and that his family is a major shareholder, said on Friday hold 15.2% of SGL, participation in addition to the 29% already held by the German heir.

The action SGL Carbon gained over 7% in early trading Friday on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, and the title took 5.4% to 45.46 euros in mid-morning.

"The lightweight construction will play a role in the future more and more important in the automotive industry.Our stake in SGL Group is a logical step that will further strengthen a successful cooperation, "said BMW's chief financial officer, Friedrich Eichiner in a statement released Friday.

SGL Carbon raises for the past several months the lusts of Susanne Klatten, Volkswagen and engineering group Voith.

"This is a power struggle with no economic logic," said one German analyst on condition of anonymity, noting that several competitors SGL Carbon were able to provide manufacturers of carbon fibers.

In exchange, the action SGL has won over 60% since the beginning of the year while the DAX index of the average values ​​gave up 5%.

Beijing could become an important contributor to the relief fund of the euro according to European diplomats. The use of third party investors will be part of discussions at the EU summit this evening. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the "Forum Summer Davos" in Dalian City, September 14, 2011.

China is ready to replenish the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), the main instrument to stem the debt crisis in the euro area, said European diplomats Wednesday before a summit of EU leaders in Brussels. "China is to" replenish the fund by creating an autonomous investment ("spin-off"), said a diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity. Other emerging powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have "not yet" indicated whether they participated in the fund, he added.

Argentina has made clear it would not participate in the rescue of the euro area, said another diplomat. The diplomats did not specify how high should reach the participation of China. The Director of EFSF, Klaus Regling, is expected in Beijing Friday, after the summit, also announced the Delegation of the European Union in Beijing.

The spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Jiang Yu, said Wednesday that China had "an open mind" and would "talk to the Europeans of many ways to cooperate." China has reiterated several times in recent weeks support for the euro area. It was unclear what would be the interlocutors in Beijing by Mr. Regling and no official was immediately available to the Ministry of Finance or the central bank.The Heads of State and Government EU could decide Wednesday night to extend the Emergency Fund of the euro area to external investors.

The markets expect strong action from the summit of heads of state and government of the Monetary Union in Brussels, which will open in the evening after a summit of 27 countries of the European Union. But hopes of a big deal are slim because of persistent differences between Europeans. EU leaders must avoid at all costs including the contagion of the Greek debt to Italy and Spain, especially by finding a way to increase the firepower of the EFSF, with a capacity of 440 billion deemed insufficient to meet the crisis.

On Wednesday, the China Daily said that emerging markets and including China agreed to participate in a European relief fund via the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Citing an unidentified source "close to the European decision-makers," the newspaper stated that "the agreement (the emerging) could be included in the final document of the summit of European leaders", if the Brussels summit decides to open the fund to of external public and private investors. In this case, China, which already holds some 500 billion of European sovereign debt, according to French and German experts, and is sitting on a huge cushion of foreign exchange reserves of 3,200 billion, would be well positioned to invest in the EFSF.The EFSF must be reinforced, either by him to carry the debt issued by European countries, either through an expansion of the means at its disposal, including through the use of outside investors.

A report of the creditors of Athens believes that the refinancing needs of the country may rise to 440 billion euros in the darkest scenario, against 109 billion announced in early July. Greece in the storm

Rigor more poisonous than a solution? Troika seems at least begin to doubt the effectiveness of reforms undertaken by the austerity Greece. A confidential report of the creditors of Athens assumes that the country's situation is even worse than before starting the measurements. "Greece must prepare for a recession longer and more severe than that announced at the beginning of treatment," reports the BBC, citing the report.

According to this document, the need may arise in Athens for the next year to 252 billion euros, against 109 billion before the summer. Troika evokes even a worst-case scenario, where these needs would rise to 440 billion.The deadline after which Greece is supposed to be able to refinance market risk it being postponed for 2021, as originally intended, to 2027. According to the document, if the situation remains unchanged, the Greek debt will peak at 186% of GDP in 2013, before declining to 152% and 130% in 2020 to 2030.

For a discount of 50% of private debt

"The aid plan adopted in July (with a number of austerity measures) reduces the rate of debt but the effect is more than balanced macroeconomic and political" troika concerned. By virtue of its low situation, Athens may not be able to implement these reforms at the same time, according to the document.

"Greece will fail to juggle internal devaluation (through lower wages, tackling its budget deficit and the completion of its privatization program" ensures creditors.Privatization also loses in profitability every day. The recession and the collapse of markets by lowering the value of assets Greek, the product could yield maximum disposal of businesses by the state increased from 66 to 46 billion euros since the beginning of austerity.

Troika and urges government and private sector to put their hands in the leg as soon as possible. It ensures that private creditors should decide on a discount of 50% of the country's debt, so that it reaches 120% of GDP by 2020. In addition, "Greece needs public support significant long-term and sufficiently generous" insists the document. He believes the need for participation of public partners to 114 billion euros, if private creditors play the game of the discount to 50%.

Alcatel-Lucent announced Wednesday have a firm offer of $ 1.5 billion (1.1 billion euros) of the European fund Permira on its Genesys subsidiary, but plans to keep the rest of his division company, which he considering the sale for several months.

The group of telecom equipment was explained in July to study all possible options on that line of business, which employs some 5,000 people worldwide this year and should generate a billion euros in revenue based on estimates of Analysts.

"In terms of our business company, we concluded that the best choice is to preserve and strengthen it in the interest of Alcatel-Lucent and in the interest of our customers," said Wednesday the CEO, Ben Verwaayen, the statement said.

The sale of Genesys, which specializes in call center management solutions and customer relationship is expected to close permanently "to the end of 2011 or early 2012," subject to the agreement of the appropriate regulatory authorities, the company said.

This sale covers some 1,800 employees.

Genesys, which achieved in 2010 a turnover of about $ 500 million, should maintain a "strong trade relationship" with the branch company of Alcatel-Lucent through a joint development agreement, said the statement.

At the Paris Stock Exchange, the announcement of exclusive negotiations with Permira allowed the action Alcatel-Lucent to cut its losses and even briefly in the green board.The title, however, is left down and gave up 4.01% to 2.0320 euro at 11:28.

It had touched a low of 1.9820 in early trading, including affected by the revision of the recommendation to neutral from Oddo, against purchase.

The $ 1.5 billion offered by Permira for Genesys exceeds that mentioned in recent months to the entire enterprise division.

Despite the green light Slovak EFSF and the new consensus in Europe to recapitalize banks, there are still some gray areas to be clarified before the euro area out of the crisis. An overview. The logo of the euro to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

The yo-yo scholarships continues. After jumping on Wednesday with the hope that the comprehensive plan to rescue the euro zone was well on track, European stock markets closed lower on Thursday. Paris dropped 1.33%, 1.33% Frankfurt, London 0.71%, 3.7% and Milan. The questions or the concerns of investors are doing now on the details and in particular the implications for banks of the measures.

Greece is close to the partial default

Despite the agreement on the payment of 8 billion euros by its creditors, the scenario of the fault beyond the initial charge for the year rose 21% to Athens.The level of potential losses on the country's debt is not yet official but "the discussion focuses on a discount of 50%," said a government source on Thursday in Europe. But determining the level of the discount "is very open, said a source in Brussels told Reuters. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors. Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure. " This scenario therefore a deletion of the Greek debt has at least prompted European leaders agree on bank recapitalization.For all creditors of Athens will have to place new provisions in their accounts, which will weaken their balance sheets.

The recapitalization of banks is finally Cohosh

If the IMF has long been the only one to ask for urgent recapitalization of European banks, the idea is now accepted by all, including France. She is now driven by Brussels, which would raise the capital ratio to 9% against 7% today, to reassure the markets strength. The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso delivered his script to get there. The banks will first have to rely on private sources of capital. If they fail, the states can participate by lending institutions. And if they do not have the means, the European Financial Stability Fund will he also intervene with the banks.

Increase the firepower of the EFSF

Just approved by the Slovak vote, the new enhanced EFSF is already considered insufficient to address emerging risks since July. It is therefore to do to participate in the recapitalization of banks and lending to troubled states – Italy, Spain and Portugal in particular – and avoid a scenario in the Greek.

Two scenarios are being considered to "maximize" its strength as stated Jose Manuel Barroso. Either turn the EFSF bank and let buy from the ECB, as would France. Or allow to act as an insurer from the holders of debt fragile, and guarantee them some of the losses in case of default of the countries concerned.However, the idea, a moment on the table to increase staffing at state EFSF seems ruled out, including Berlin refused.

The ECB, Germany and the banks resist

This "maximization" dear to Barroso does not delight everyone. Including the main concerned with two options on the table, the European Central Bank (ECB). The institution said it is "not appropriate" to use leverage by financing it with a banque.Une position shared by Germany, which fears that this requires the get their hands in their pockets to bail out the ECB. Germany refuses to elsewhere as the EFSF can be used to bail out banks in countries that are not under assistance. France has partially agreed with this view, stating that the State was ready to inject public funds into financial institutions without seeking the ease Europe.

Remaining banks, concerned about the forced recapitalization. The President of the Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, is such that this debate is "against-productive." "The money will come certainly not private investors, but rather states that will raise new funds," he said, quoted in the Financial Times. "And they will do so by increasing their debt levels, while the key problem lies in the ability of governments to restore confidence in public finances," he adds.

France and Germany have pledged Sunday to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit scheduled for early November in Cannes, which will include a recapitalization of banks in Europe.

Met for crisis talks in Berlin, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel said they would formulate joint proposals to do so while refusing to give any details at this point.

"You will see the end of an entire fully functional," promised the Chancellor during a press briefing.

Nicolas Sarkozy for his part stressed that Europe should "have solved its problems by the G20 to Cannes," several members of the forum, including the United States, having recently expressed concern over the inability of Europeans to stop the crisis caused budget problems for Greece.

French and German leaders welcomed the fact that almost all European countries have ratified the Second Plan aid to Greece adopted July 21, which also expands the powers of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), the fund urgency of the euro area.

While starting to speak out to condemn the new plan to help poor, they said they expected the report of the troika (EU-European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) on the situation in Greece before any decision.

"We believe that the troika will be able to submit a sustainable solution for Greece, a member of the euro," said Angela Merkel predicted.

AGREEMENT "SOLD" ON THE BANKS

The Chancellor and the President also discussed the recapitalization of banks in Europe, an issue that has emerged under the pressure of the markets, concerned about the resilience of the banking system facing the European financial and economic crisis due to its exposure to country the worst off.

The first said that Paris and Berlin were "determined to do whatever it takes to ensure the recapitalization of our banks."

French President for his part assured that the agreement between the two countries on how and where the process was considered "complete", denying the reports of differences over the use of EFSF to provide the necessary funds.

While capital needs of European banks have been estimated between 100 and 200 billion dollars by the IMF, Merkel said that the new European Banking Authority and the International Monetary Fund would be asked to ensure that what is proposed is "durable and strong."

Nicolas Sarkozy referred to "a meeting (held) at a date to be fixed for the detail of what we do."

He said other than France and Germany were preparing a number of adjustments to the Treaties to strengthen European integration in the euro area.

The head of the French government has finally responded to those who, like the World Bank President Robert Zoellick, to accuse European leaders lack the vision that inspired their predecessors, stressing that it was now not to build projects, but to make decisions in a crisis without precedent.

"It is precisely because at that time there were grand visions that have failed to address issues that were not the details that we are now both in managing the crisis and solve problems that should have been solved before, "he said.

"Everyone knows, Europe has chosen the single currency without even thinking about what his government would be economic, not to think about the issues of harmonization of fiscal and economic policies and we have now in crisis response these problems. Well, we are determined to do it! "