Economic Analysis and Indicators

This was announced on Wednesday INSEE. This performance is almost consistent with the prediction of the Government. In the fourth quarter, GDP grew by 0.2%. Consumer spending slowed slightly households in Q4 2012 (+0.2% after +0.3%).

Growth of the French economy reached 1.7% in 2011, a hair of the government's forecast (1.75%), after a positive fourth quarter to 0.2%, said Wednesday the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

In 2010, GDP growth was 1.4%.  

The government had maintained its forecast to the end while most economists had forecast rather on GDP growth of 1.6% in 2011 and a decline of 0.2% in the fourth quarter.

In detail, INSEE wrote: "Consumption expenditures of households slowed slightly at the end of the year (+0.2% after +0.3%), while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated ( +0.9% after +0.2%). In total, final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributes positively to the new GDP growth: 0.3 0.2 point after point. Exports increase at same rate until the summer (1.2%) while imports decline (-1.2% after +0.7%). Therefore, the external trade balance contributed positively to growth: 0 , 7 0.1 point after point. This effect is more than offset by changes in inventories, which contributed 0.8 points to changes in activity, after a neutral contribution "

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According to the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, the fight against fraud and tax evasion was never as effective as that from the arrival in the five-year of Nicolas Sarkozy. Info or intox? The budget minister Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse presented on Thursday a report on the work of tax administration in recent years to fight against fraud and evasion, "a government priority," says the Minister of Budget. She said the government has given the IRS means that he had never been given. It concludes that the fight against tax fraud, reinforced by 60 new measures, has never been effective since 2007. What is it really?

In 2010, the results of tax audits totaled 16 billion euros, against 15 billion in 2009. Since 2007, the fight against tax evasion would have to get 50 billion euros in total, according to Bercy.Please note, these figures represent the amounts of fees and penalties notified. But all is not returned into the coffers of the state. According Drezet Vincent, the union unified national taxes (SNUI), the effective rate of recovery of tax claims is 50% after two years and 75% after four years.

A priori, this figure of 16 billion is quite a good result. A report of the Council of samples required (CPO) estimates because tax evasion between 20.5 and 25.6 billion euros a year. A rate of fraud detected from 60 to 80%. But the report of CPO, which dates from 2007, did not take into account tax evasion. Other estimates seem closer to reality: that of the European Commission, which evaluates tax evasion in France between 2 and 2.5% of GDP (40 to 50 billion euros), or that of which SNUI provides a range of 42 and 51 billion euros.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down 1.7% Tuesday, grim company results and revived concerns about the Europe that encouraged profit-taking on gains in recent days.

The Nikkei lost 152.87 points to 8,835.52 and the Topix, larger yielded 9.56 points (-1.25%) to 754.5

"The shares are under pressure, mainly because so many reports contain results of bad news," said Yutaka Shiraki, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

Suffering like other exporters in the rise of the yen, Panasonic dropped 5.07% after saying the day before an anticipated annual net loss of 420 billion yen (3.8 billion), the highest in a decade he attributes to a strong increase in restructuring costs and a lowered demand in Europe and the United States.

Japan intervened unilaterally on Monday the currency market to try to curb the upward trend of the yen after the Japanese currency had reached a new record high against the dollar.

But some analysts believe that the strength of the yen has already been reflected in the positions of many investors.

Beijing could become an important contributor to the relief fund of the euro according to European diplomats. The use of third party investors will be part of discussions at the EU summit this evening. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the "Forum Summer Davos" in Dalian City, September 14, 2011.

China is ready to replenish the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), the main instrument to stem the debt crisis in the euro area, said European diplomats Wednesday before a summit of EU leaders in Brussels. "China is to" replenish the fund by creating an autonomous investment ("spin-off"), said a diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity. Other emerging powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have "not yet" indicated whether they participated in the fund, he added.

Argentina has made clear it would not participate in the rescue of the euro area, said another diplomat. The diplomats did not specify how high should reach the participation of China. The Director of EFSF, Klaus Regling, is expected in Beijing Friday, after the summit, also announced the Delegation of the European Union in Beijing.

The spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Jiang Yu, said Wednesday that China had "an open mind" and would "talk to the Europeans of many ways to cooperate." China has reiterated several times in recent weeks support for the euro area. It was unclear what would be the interlocutors in Beijing by Mr. Regling and no official was immediately available to the Ministry of Finance or the central bank.The Heads of State and Government EU could decide Wednesday night to extend the Emergency Fund of the euro area to external investors.

The markets expect strong action from the summit of heads of state and government of the Monetary Union in Brussels, which will open in the evening after a summit of 27 countries of the European Union. But hopes of a big deal are slim because of persistent differences between Europeans. EU leaders must avoid at all costs including the contagion of the Greek debt to Italy and Spain, especially by finding a way to increase the firepower of the EFSF, with a capacity of 440 billion deemed insufficient to meet the crisis.

On Wednesday, the China Daily said that emerging markets and including China agreed to participate in a European relief fund via the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Citing an unidentified source "close to the European decision-makers," the newspaper stated that "the agreement (the emerging) could be included in the final document of the summit of European leaders", if the Brussels summit decides to open the fund to of external public and private investors. In this case, China, which already holds some 500 billion of European sovereign debt, according to French and German experts, and is sitting on a huge cushion of foreign exchange reserves of 3,200 billion, would be well positioned to invest in the EFSF.The EFSF must be reinforced, either by him to carry the debt issued by European countries, either through an expansion of the means at its disposal, including through the use of outside investors.

A report of the creditors of Athens believes that the refinancing needs of the country may rise to 440 billion euros in the darkest scenario, against 109 billion announced in early July. Greece in the storm

Rigor more poisonous than a solution? Troika seems at least begin to doubt the effectiveness of reforms undertaken by the austerity Greece. A confidential report of the creditors of Athens assumes that the country's situation is even worse than before starting the measurements. "Greece must prepare for a recession longer and more severe than that announced at the beginning of treatment," reports the BBC, citing the report.

According to this document, the need may arise in Athens for the next year to 252 billion euros, against 109 billion before the summer. Troika evokes even a worst-case scenario, where these needs would rise to 440 billion.The deadline after which Greece is supposed to be able to refinance market risk it being postponed for 2021, as originally intended, to 2027. According to the document, if the situation remains unchanged, the Greek debt will peak at 186% of GDP in 2013, before declining to 152% and 130% in 2020 to 2030.

For a discount of 50% of private debt

"The aid plan adopted in July (with a number of austerity measures) reduces the rate of debt but the effect is more than balanced macroeconomic and political" troika concerned. By virtue of its low situation, Athens may not be able to implement these reforms at the same time, according to the document.

"Greece will fail to juggle internal devaluation (through lower wages, tackling its budget deficit and the completion of its privatization program" ensures creditors.Privatization also loses in profitability every day. The recession and the collapse of markets by lowering the value of assets Greek, the product could yield maximum disposal of businesses by the state increased from 66 to 46 billion euros since the beginning of austerity.

Troika and urges government and private sector to put their hands in the leg as soon as possible. It ensures that private creditors should decide on a discount of 50% of the country's debt, so that it reaches 120% of GDP by 2020. In addition, "Greece needs public support significant long-term and sufficiently generous" insists the document. He believes the need for participation of public partners to 114 billion euros, if private creditors play the game of the discount to 50%.

While the downgrade of Greece routinely saddled markets, that of Italy by Standard and Poor's on Tuesday, has not moved many people. The greatest response finally came from Silvio Berlusconi but also to challenge the "political considerations" of the agency. Explanations of Jean-Louis Mourier, economist at Aurel Level. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Rome January 21, 2011

The U.S. rating agency Standard and Poor's has lowered the credit rating of Italy a notch, from "A +" to "A" due to low growth prospects, which will complicate the reduction of deficit and debt. What are the risks to the Peninsula?

Standard and Poor's is the first agency to downgrade the rating of Italy that had never been lowered since the beginning of the debt crisis, unlike that of other fragile countries in the euro area.The obvious risk is now to see interest rates still further on. The 10-year yields are now 5.67% or a spread with Germany of 3.90 basis points. The level is high but there is, after all, acceptable. Italy can still take the risk of finance markets rather than to appeal to the IMF, the political cost would be much higher.

Do you think interest rates will continue to rise?

All depend on the decision of Moody's, it will take only three months. But in practice the risk of soaring rates is very limited. For now, yields are already very high which suggests that markets for some time had considered this deterioration given the growth deficit of the country and its political instability. Quite honestly the situation in Italy is serious but not catastrophic.It is sufficient that the activity takes off a little, that a two budgetary measures are in place to return tax revenues to return to a primary surplus and so reduce the debt service. In terms of politics, the upcoming elections in 2012 should bring more stability to the country and more rigorously.

This decision threatens to fuel the fears of contagion from the debt crisis in the euro area?

No. In Spain, the victory of the right envisaged in the next few elections suggests a plan of fiscal restraint that will reassure the markets. As for France, even if growth is weak, it still emits positive signs.

Nearly a year after its recapitalization and the arrival of new shareholders, the world continues its transformation with the launch on September 23 a new offering of the weekend expanded and redesigned along the lines of its major competitors Anglo-Saxon.

Under the guidance of new leadership, the group returned in the first part of the year with a positive operating profit, driven by sales up 2.7% thanks to a particularly dense and news of an improvement the advertising market.

"Overall it's a good time for daily newspapers, which have long had been unable to utter these words," said chief executive Louis Dreyfus.

"The challenge we have is how we can ride this wave for that when she retires, that is to say, after the presidential elections, there is more healthy and better equipped to continue to develop, "he added.

In recent months, the group has thoroughly revised its teams – 15% of the workforce has been renewed – reduces costs and initiated the merger of its editorial web and paper.

The group now intends to undertake a period of "intensive investments," said Louis Dreyfus, which will be achieved first by launching a new offer for the weekend, significantly expanded the image of that offer Newspapers like the New York Times in the United States or the Guardian in Britain.

"We believe the weekend, readers are available. There is a flaw in the French system of this view point, the supply of national French dailies, particularly the World is not enough" said Managing Editor, Erik Izraelewicz.

The newspaper dated Saturday and will double in size to incorporate three new books entitled "Science & technology", "Sports & Fitness" and "Culture and ideas."He will be joined as a magazine today, the pagination will also be expanded to include giving more room for the photo.

The set will be available on newsstands for a price of 3.20 euros against 2.60 euros today.

The edition dated Sunday and Monday will in turn enriched with a notebook "Geo & Politics" for a price unchanged.

TOWARD DECENTRALIZATION OF PRINTING

This new offering, which represents an investment of one million euros over three months, will receive a draw increased by about 30% for launch with the aim to further increase sales and advertising revenue, a Louis Dreyfus said, without providing any targets.

The group also hopes to lead by the end of September on a solution for its subsidiary LePost.fr, deficit.

Discussions have been initiated for two months with Arianna Huffington, co-founder of the news site Huffington Post, to make a French edition of the U.S. site for a launch that could occur in the fall.

There remains the thorny issue of modernization of the printing group which records series of defections by customers, including the financial daily Les Echos, scheduled for November 2012, which should result in a loss of 30% of turnover business.

The group now plans to retain a single rotary printing plant in the Paris region who will take the bulk of the printing (250,000 copies) and to decentralize the rest based on five regional centers.

The objective considered imperative by management, is to ensure that the newspaper is distributed between 14:00 and 15:00 on most of the territory in 2012, Louis Dreyfus said, adding that discussions were still ongoing.

The reorganization of the printing press would have no impact on the distribution would remain assured by Presstalis.

Le Monde, who said he performed well in terms of advertising revenue in the summer months and September is an operating profit of 6.6 million euros for the full year, including a third party must be reinvested in the group.

European banking stocks falling stock market on Tuesday due to growing fears of the market with respect to sovereign debt, particularly Greece.

Furthermore, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor's, the modest rebound of the activities of the European banking sector since the end of the 2008-2009 financial crisis is about to seize up because of growth prospects in the mixed zone euro and capital markets both volatile and risk-averse.

By 1530, the Stoxx European banks leaves 2.8%, while it was slightly lower in mid-session (-0.3%), and leads the industry in its fall European markets.The Paris Bourse was down 1.31% and 1.27% from Frankfurt, while Athens yields 0.76%.

French banks Societe Generale (-6.02%), Credit Agricole (-5.65%) and BNP Paribas (-5.06%) have the largest declines the CAC 40. The Greek EFG Eurobank lost 7.82% and 5.42% Italian Banca Milano.

"The crisis of sovereign debt and more specifically the situation in Greece scares investors. The bailout of the latter will not be implemented," says Saxo Bank in a note.

No one was immediately available at Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas for comment.For its part, the Company generally does not comment.

"Even if there are many exaggerations from the area, you end up not really knowing what the true exposure of banks to sovereign debt between what institutions say this and announced by the IMF," said his Franklin side Pichard, director of Barclays stock.

According to a European source, the IMF estimates that European banks may face a lack of equity of around EUR 200 billion to address the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area and slowing growth.

Franklin Pichard adds that we talk more and more a failure of Greece, which increases the nervousness of investors.

Since late May, the index of European banks has shrunk by more than 35%, by raising the specter of capital increases, are analysts.

"Everyone wonders what will be the first to open the ball," said Franklin Pichard.

The Paris stock exchange briefly plunged below 3,600 points Monday and found its lowest in September 2010 after the announcement of a sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity in the United States in July.

Large global banks pose systemic risk will be assessed a surcharge capital from 1% to 2.5% on Monday said Mario Draghi, the chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) at a press conference.

Mario Draghi, who is also governor of the Bank of Italy, also said that only the shares of major systemic banks – called "Sifi" (systemically important institutions Financial) – will be considered for the calculation of this surcharge.

Drawing lessons from the crisis, regulators want to tighten capital requirements imposed on banks whose failure could lead to widespread financial crisis and other bank failures.

"The big international banks will be subject to systemic overload of capital (including, Ed) between 1% and 2.5%," said Mario Draghi at the end of a meeting in Paris from CSF.

"These surcharges will only be made capital of ordinary shares," he added.

On this occasion, the FSB announced that two papers will be published "in the coming days" to be submitted for consultation.

The first will focus on the overhead capital and the second will be on the procedures for crisis resolution in the event of bank failure.

The CSF will then make final recommendations to be proposed to the Heads of State and Government of the G20 summit in Cannes on 3 and 4 November.

This surcharge will be added to capital of 7% minimum capital requirement under the new regulations Basel III.

Thirty major international banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Deutsche Bank or BNP Paribas, should be part of institutions regarded as systemic, that is to say whose failure could cause widespread financial crisis or other bank failures.

But for now, the FSB did not give details on the name and the number of banks that will be part of the list of systemic institutions.