Economic Analysis and Indicators

The Greek government has summoned the deputies Saturday slingers to provide support to the austerity measures demanded by the EU and the IMF for the implementation of a second rescue plan, otherwise they commit the country to "an unknown and dangerous path" which he says will lead to bankruptcy and international economic isolation.

The leader of New Democracy (ND, conservative) Antonis Samaras, while criticizing the austerity policy of Greece sinking ever more into recession, urged é ; read of his party to support the second bailout, worth 130 billion euros, failing which their applications would be rejected for the upcoming legislative. 

The coalition of Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos has an overwhelming majority in parliament, which should ensure the adoption, scheduled for Sunday, a series of new austerity measures including a further reduction of public expenditure, of about 3.3 billion euros this year.

But six members of the government have already resigned in protest against the scale of austerity measures, among them a 22% decrease in the minimum wage.

"The consequences of uncontrolled failure would be incalculable for the country, not just for its economy (…). This would take us on a path unknown, dangerous, "he said Saturday Deputy Minister of Finance, Filippos Sachinidis

. In a newspaper interview Imerisia, he portrays the disaster in which he said Greece would fall if it did not honor the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on March 20

. "Let us ask ourselves what it would mean for the country the loss of its banking system and not be able to import raw materials , pharmaceuticals, fuel, food and basic technologies, "he said

. The Greek government on Friday approved evening the bill involving the country in the reforms demanded by the EU and the International Monetary Fund for the implementation of the second bailout. 

While a 48-hour strike against austerity entered its second day, Saturday, fifty communist militants have deployed two huge banners on the ramparts of the Acropolis. "Down with the dictatorship of the monopolies and the European Union", they proclaimed.

FIFTEEN BILLION FOR BANKS?

Seven thousand demonstrators gathered in the center of the capital, according to figures released by the police. No overflow has been reported, unlike Friday when police fired tear gas towards protesters throwing Molotov cocktails and stones.

Members of the ND, which has a strong lead in the polls for parliamentary elections planned a priori in early April, should support the austerity measures Sunday, in the whole. But Samaras was keen to warn politicians of his party, the second largest group in parliament after the PASOK (Socialists).

"This is obviously a matter of party discipline," he said before a parliamentary committee, adding that any slingers would be excluded from elections of April.

The far-right party LAOS has left the government coalition Friday and ordered his four ministers to resign. Two members of PASOK have also slammed the government's door in protest against the harshness of austerity.

Former Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou has also wished to draw members of PASOK to vote austerity measures.

"I've lost friends, my family suffered, I lost my job, I was insulted, dragged through the mud like no other politician in this country," he told the elected PASOK parliamentary group.

"Yet all this is nothing compared to what our people expect if we do not choose the right path. Despite all the anger we feel as we boil, we must persevere, "he told them

. Minister Finance Evangelos Venizelos said on Saturday it would take perhaps another 15 billion more to rescue the Greek banks, thereby confirming the EU estimates

.

The European Union calls on the other hand the Greek government to provide details of further cuts in public spending of $ 325 million Euro

. It also requires a clear commitment from party leaders of the coalition government to implement austerity measures .. …….

Enrollment managers and skilled workers have been growing. In contrast, unskilled workers and employees are in decline by 5% and 7.3%. Officers, employees

The temporary employment declined by 0.4% in October compared to October 2010, with a decline in all major sectors except industry, according to the barometer Prism job on Monday. Temporary employment is considered an indicator of future trends in the labor market.

In October, the number of executives and middle management and skilled workers have been growing 5.9% and 5.5%. In contrast, unskilled workers and employees are in decline by 5% and 7.3%. If the industry increased its use of temporary staff in October compared with October 2010 (1.8%), the other major sectors were down: construction (-0.6%), transport (-0.8 %), services (-4.4%) and trade (-4.5%).

These national statistics mask large regional differences: two regions stand out in terms of increase, Midi-Pyrenees (12.5%) and Haute-Normandie (+10.6%). However, in the Ile-de-France, the enrollment decline is temporary 7.3% in October over a year. There was also a decrease in Limousin (-7%) in the Languedoc-Roussillon (-6%) in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (-5.5%), Britain (-4.5%).

This barometer is determined by the group Umanis from the statistics provided by a panel of temporary employment representative, as Prism over 80% of temporary employment.

European shares rebounded Friday after several sessions of decline, especially after a Reuters information that the Member States of the European Union are considering, as part of the future permanent mechanism for stability of the euro area, to give to involve the private sector in the financial rescue of a country.

This discussion is part of wider ongoing trade reform on the European Treaty, on which Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel agreed Thursday in Strasbourg, it was said sources familiar with the matter.It does not however affect the participation of banks and insurers in the second EU aid package to Greece, where they pledged to remove 50% of their claims to the country.

The information bounces European markets, which operated in the red after a disappointing auction of Italy.

According to the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, the fight against fraud and tax evasion was never as effective as that from the arrival in the five-year of Nicolas Sarkozy. Info or intox? The budget minister Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse presented on Thursday a report on the work of tax administration in recent years to fight against fraud and evasion, "a government priority," says the Minister of Budget. She said the government has given the IRS means that he had never been given. It concludes that the fight against tax fraud, reinforced by 60 new measures, has never been effective since 2007. What is it really?

In 2010, the results of tax audits totaled 16 billion euros, against 15 billion in 2009. Since 2007, the fight against tax evasion would have to get 50 billion euros in total, according to Bercy.Please note, these figures represent the amounts of fees and penalties notified. But all is not returned into the coffers of the state. According Drezet Vincent, the union unified national taxes (SNUI), the effective rate of recovery of tax claims is 50% after two years and 75% after four years.

A priori, this figure of 16 billion is quite a good result. A report of the Council of samples required (CPO) estimates because tax evasion between 20.5 and 25.6 billion euros a year. A rate of fraud detected from 60 to 80%. But the report of CPO, which dates from 2007, did not take into account tax evasion. Other estimates seem closer to reality: that of the European Commission, which evaluates tax evasion in France between 2 and 2.5% of GDP (40 to 50 billion euros), or that of which SNUI provides a range of 42 and 51 billion euros.

François Fillon has announced plans to reduce the growth of health spending to 2.5% in 2012 instead of the 2.8% originally planned. This goal is realistic? The responses of Gerard de Pouvourville economist and Chair of the Health Essec. Consultation with general practitioners rises to 23 euros. Drugs reimbursed at 35% will no longer be only 30%.

Among the austerity measures introduced on November 7, Francois Fillon announced a reduction in the rate of growth of health spending, reduced to 2.5% instead of 2.8% initially planned. For this, we need to find 500 million euros in additional savings, the details should be announced within the next ten days.This target is realistic? Above all, this rate of change is it tenable in the long run? The responses of Gerard de Pouvourville economist and Chair of the Health Essec.

The government announced a growth rate of Medicare spending reduced to 2.5% in 2012. This objective can be achieved?

Gerard de Pouvourville: This will not be easy. Certainly, the rate for 2010, 3% had been observed: the achievements were even below the target passed by the parliament! But the Court of Auditors has pointed out, this result was partly achieved through economic factors: favorable environment influenza, no significant revaluation fee for health professionals. We must see that the dynamics of spending on "long-term illness", supported 100% by Medicare, continues to be very strong.

The European and American markets regain ground Wednesday afternoon after their declines of the previous day, in the hope that the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve announced new measures to support the economy.

Gains are limited by fears that the referendum of Greece on its financial rescue plan compromise resolution of the debt crisis in the region, as well as the concern about the contraction of manufacturing activity in the euro zone, even stronger than initially estimated.

"Whichever way you look, the decision of the Greek Prime Minister to announce a referendum on the bailout is a mistake.

European shares are stepping up their gains, resulting in the CAC 40 index beyond the resistance of 3,300 points in markets relieved after the agreement reached in the night on the Greek debt restructuring, capacity building fund support the euro and the recapitalization of European banks.

In Paris the CAC 40 is doped by the bank and Axa, up 12%. At the top of the index, Crédit Agricole flies by 21%.

Dexia wins more than 10% at the resumption of trading of the security.Constraint to the dismantling early October due to the debt crisis in the eurozone, the bank said Thursday that its capital requirements amounted to 1.7 billion euros.

PPR takes more than 6%, boosted by the announcement on the eve of a very strong sales growth in the luxury market in the third quarter despite a difficult economic environment.

The euro peaked at 7 weeks against the dollar at 1.4038. Traders refer to a new level of resistance around 1.4050 dollar.

Dexia has paid 1.5 billion euros in its first two institutional shareholders that they carry out acquisitions of securities of the Franco-Belgian bank until 2008, the Financial Times reported Friday.

According to the newspaper, Holding Communal, an organization representing large municipalities in Belgium, has borrowed 1.2 billion euros to Dexia Bank Belgium (DBB), the Belgian branch of Dexia specializes in bank deposits.These funds were largely used to participate in two capital increase of Dexia Group in 2006 and 2008.

Arco, which invests on behalf of a Belgian trade union, has in turn borrowed 275 million euros, back into the capital of Dexia in fund-raising, according to the FT.

These two entities jointly owned 35% of Dexia, and are still represented on the board, the newspaper said.

The Franco-Belgian bank has actually borrowed money which it owned to finance its capital increase.

In addition, the FT reported that Dexia agreed in collateral on its loans its own shares, which implies that any collapse of the stock price is likely to generate heavy losses.

Dexia's market capitalization has increased from about 21 billion euros in 2006 to one billion euros to date.

This funding at the time had aroused the concern of regulators in Belgium, says the FT. However, if they are illegal in most countries and now banned in the European Union, Dexia has not broken the law then in effect.

According to the financial daily, the British bank HSBC dream to make an offer on DenizBank, Turkish subsidiary of the Franco-Belgian bank.

It has already received expressions of interest, including the Qatar National Bank (QNB), the sovereign wealth fund Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) holds half the capital, and the first Russian bank Sberbank.

U.S. stocks ended down sharply on Friday on renewed fears of a relapse of the U.S. economy into recession after the announcement of zero growth in job creation in August.

The Dow Jones finished lower by 2.2% or 253.31 points at 11,240.26 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 benchmark fund managers, has sold 2.53% or 30.45 points to 1173.97 points while the Nasdaq composite fell by 2.58% or 65.71 points at 2480.33 points.

For the week, the Dow lost 0.4%, the S & P 0.2% and the Nasdaq 0.02%.The quasi-market place on this week due to higher market on the first three days of the week, including an introduction on hopes the Federal Reserve's new measures to boost the economic machine.

According to official statistics released Friday, the non-farm job creation in the United States were zero in August and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%, while the market was expecting about 75,000 new jobs.

President Barack Obama in a speech to the nation Thursday, September 8, must submit an employment plan including tax cuts and measures to support long-term unemployed, told Reuters on Friday a counselor the White House.

The trend on Wall Street also weighed down by renewed fears about the budgetary situation of Greece and the uncertainty of the austerity program in Italy.

Bank stocks were under pressure. Bank of America lost 8.34% to 7.25 dollars, JP Morgan Chase 4.6% to 34.63 dollars and Goldman Sachs 4.55% to 107.06 dollars, after a tip that they would be covered by a complaint at the federal level for their role in the subprime crisis.The New York Times, the federal agency overseeing the mortgage market in the United States will file a complaint against a large number of banks.

BofA's action was particularly attacked, the Wall Street Journal has reported that the Fed would have asked the bank to submit the measures it would take if business conditions deteriorated.

The KBW index of banking sector has lost 4.5%.

The U.S. Justice Department is investigating about the view that Standard & Poor's focused on asset-backed mortgages whose collapse led to the 2008-2009 financial crisis, said Thursday night a source close to the .

The survey – which according to the source is trying to distinguish between what the S & P analysts wanted to do and what they were told to do – was launched before the rating downgrade does the United States at the beginning months.

The Justice Department has also conducted a survey of Moody's, one of two main competing S & P on the notes she had assigned to structured products during the crisis, said another source.

Asked by Reuters by telephone and e-mail, a spokesman for Moody's could not be reached immediately.

The Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), Constable of U.S. financial markets, has also opened an investigation into the possible role of S & P, a division of McGraw-Hill, in the crisis, said the first source.

Representatives of the SEC and Justice Department have declined comment.

The New York Times had first reported the investigation of S & P focused on whether the agency had assigned the notes to dozens of biased asset-backed home loans before the financial crisis broke out in 2008.

The Justice Department was interested in cases where S & P analysts want to assign notes to some of these assets before being contradicted by leaders of the agency, said the daily.

A spokesman for S & P noted that among the principles guiding the action of the particular agency were "analytical independence and objectivity", adding that the company had taken steps to strengthen the implementation of these principles .

"In recent years, S & P has received several requests from various government authorities regarding asset-backed U.S. mortgage.We have cooperated and continue to do so, "said the spokesman.

It is currently unclear whether Fitch (Fimalac group), the third major rating agency, is also being investigated by the Justice Department.

Neither Moody's or Fitch have lowered their ratings on the United States.