Economic Analysis and Indicators

The Greek government has summoned the deputies Saturday slingers to provide support to the austerity measures demanded by the EU and the IMF for the implementation of a second rescue plan, otherwise they commit the country to "an unknown and dangerous path" which he says will lead to bankruptcy and international economic isolation.

The leader of New Democracy (ND, conservative) Antonis Samaras, while criticizing the austerity policy of Greece sinking ever more into recession, urged é ; read of his party to support the second bailout, worth 130 billion euros, failing which their applications would be rejected for the upcoming legislative. 

The coalition of Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos has an overwhelming majority in parliament, which should ensure the adoption, scheduled for Sunday, a series of new austerity measures including a further reduction of public expenditure, of about 3.3 billion euros this year.

But six members of the government have already resigned in protest against the scale of austerity measures, among them a 22% decrease in the minimum wage.

"The consequences of uncontrolled failure would be incalculable for the country, not just for its economy (…). This would take us on a path unknown, dangerous, "he said Saturday Deputy Minister of Finance, Filippos Sachinidis

. In a newspaper interview Imerisia, he portrays the disaster in which he said Greece would fall if it did not honor the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on March 20

. "Let us ask ourselves what it would mean for the country the loss of its banking system and not be able to import raw materials , pharmaceuticals, fuel, food and basic technologies, "he said

. The Greek government on Friday approved evening the bill involving the country in the reforms demanded by the EU and the International Monetary Fund for the implementation of the second bailout. 

While a 48-hour strike against austerity entered its second day, Saturday, fifty communist militants have deployed two huge banners on the ramparts of the Acropolis. "Down with the dictatorship of the monopolies and the European Union", they proclaimed.

FIFTEEN BILLION FOR BANKS?

Seven thousand demonstrators gathered in the center of the capital, according to figures released by the police. No overflow has been reported, unlike Friday when police fired tear gas towards protesters throwing Molotov cocktails and stones.

Members of the ND, which has a strong lead in the polls for parliamentary elections planned a priori in early April, should support the austerity measures Sunday, in the whole. But Samaras was keen to warn politicians of his party, the second largest group in parliament after the PASOK (Socialists).

"This is obviously a matter of party discipline," he said before a parliamentary committee, adding that any slingers would be excluded from elections of April.

The far-right party LAOS has left the government coalition Friday and ordered his four ministers to resign. Two members of PASOK have also slammed the government's door in protest against the harshness of austerity.

Former Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou has also wished to draw members of PASOK to vote austerity measures.

"I've lost friends, my family suffered, I lost my job, I was insulted, dragged through the mud like no other politician in this country," he told the elected PASOK parliamentary group.

"Yet all this is nothing compared to what our people expect if we do not choose the right path. Despite all the anger we feel as we boil, we must persevere, "he told them

. Minister Finance Evangelos Venizelos said on Saturday it would take perhaps another 15 billion more to rescue the Greek banks, thereby confirming the EU estimates

.

The European Union calls on the other hand the Greek government to provide details of further cuts in public spending of $ 325 million Euro

. It also requires a clear commitment from party leaders of the coalition government to implement austerity measures .. …….

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Businesses can use reduced hours for a period of two months, instead of three months minimum as far. Moreover, Unédic will compensate the employee at the first non-working hours and not from the 51st hour. Agency employment center in Nice

The social partners have completed Monday, February 6 negotiations on simplification of the partial unemployment, desired by the government, lamenting the CGT still not be reached "unification" of different compensation schemes. Following a meeting at the Paris headquarters of the MEDEF, the CFDT, CFE-CGC, CFTC and FO said they would sign the draft agreement inter-professional, the CGT had not yet made its final decision. The side of employers, the MEDEF, UPA and CGPME should also give their approval.  

Despite disagreements, all stressed the need to be pragmatic in these times of crisis, short-allowing companies to cope with downturns without fire. This agreement simplifies one of the two systems of compensation available in case of partial unemployment: the partial activity of long duration (APLD), far less used than the conventional allocation. Businesses will be able to use the APLD for a period of partial unemployment for two months instead of three months minimum as far.

Moreover, Unédic will compensate the employee at the first non-working hours and not from the 51st hour. Thus the State and indemnify the employee Unédic up to 7.23 euros in the first hour (7.84 euros for companies with fewer than 250 employees), against 5.23 currently, some welcome support for the employer.  

The company is committed to keeping the employee twice the time

The agreement "simplifies the device", especially for small businesses, said the negotiator of the CFDT Lawrence Berger. "We are still far from what is sought, namely the unification of devices for partial unemployment," lamented his side Maurad Rabhi, the CGT, the first French union. Moreover, "nowhere in this text, it was possible to the consideration that was negotiated in 2009, which was to preserve jobs," he said.

When a company uses the APLD, she is committed to preserving the jobs twice the time during which employees were to short. For example, an employee experiencing an inactivity of three months, the company agrees to keep at least six months. This agreement will be tested until September and will be given a suite "in light of experience." To set this up, Unédic will release 80 million euros, which will add 40 million remaining on a budget of 150 million dedicated to short released in 2009.

This text comes as the government announced last week the elimination of prior administrative authorization. So far an employer who wanted to have recourse to short should apply to the administration which had 20 days to notify its decision. During the "Social Summit Emergency" on 18 January President Nicolas Sarkozy announced measures against unemployment, and including € 140 million to boost part-time work.

European shares rebounded Friday after several sessions of decline, especially after a Reuters information that the Member States of the European Union are considering, as part of the future permanent mechanism for stability of the euro area, to give to involve the private sector in the financial rescue of a country.

This discussion is part of wider ongoing trade reform on the European Treaty, on which Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel agreed Thursday in Strasbourg, it was said sources familiar with the matter.It does not however affect the participation of banks and insurers in the second EU aid package to Greece, where they pledged to remove 50% of their claims to the country.

The information bounces European markets, which operated in the red after a disappointing auction of Italy.

According to the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, the fight against fraud and tax evasion was never as effective as that from the arrival in the five-year of Nicolas Sarkozy. Info or intox? The budget minister Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse presented on Thursday a report on the work of tax administration in recent years to fight against fraud and evasion, "a government priority," says the Minister of Budget. She said the government has given the IRS means that he had never been given. It concludes that the fight against tax fraud, reinforced by 60 new measures, has never been effective since 2007. What is it really?

In 2010, the results of tax audits totaled 16 billion euros, against 15 billion in 2009. Since 2007, the fight against tax evasion would have to get 50 billion euros in total, according to Bercy.Please note, these figures represent the amounts of fees and penalties notified. But all is not returned into the coffers of the state. According Drezet Vincent, the union unified national taxes (SNUI), the effective rate of recovery of tax claims is 50% after two years and 75% after four years.

A priori, this figure of 16 billion is quite a good result. A report of the Council of samples required (CPO) estimates because tax evasion between 20.5 and 25.6 billion euros a year. A rate of fraud detected from 60 to 80%. But the report of CPO, which dates from 2007, did not take into account tax evasion. Other estimates seem closer to reality: that of the European Commission, which evaluates tax evasion in France between 2 and 2.5% of GDP (40 to 50 billion euros), or that of which SNUI provides a range of 42 and 51 billion euros.

The richest woman in Germany, Susanne Klatten, has strengthened its position in the capital of SGL Carbon, distancing and Volkswagen in the race to control the "champion" of carbon fibers.

BMW, Klatten and that his family is a major shareholder, said on Friday hold 15.2% of SGL, participation in addition to the 29% already held by the German heir.

The action SGL Carbon gained over 7% in early trading Friday on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, and the title took 5.4% to 45.46 euros in mid-morning.

"The lightweight construction will play a role in the future more and more important in the automotive industry.Our stake in SGL Group is a logical step that will further strengthen a successful cooperation, "said BMW's chief financial officer, Friedrich Eichiner in a statement released Friday.

SGL Carbon raises for the past several months the lusts of Susanne Klatten, Volkswagen and engineering group Voith.

"This is a power struggle with no economic logic," said one German analyst on condition of anonymity, noting that several competitors SGL Carbon were able to provide manufacturers of carbon fibers.

In exchange, the action SGL has won over 60% since the beginning of the year while the DAX index of the average values ​​gave up 5%.

According to the German Chancellor, the current generation is facing "a testing history," and this is "to show that Europe can reach a turning point" with this financial crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday at the Conservative party conference that Europe knew "may" with the debt crisis "its time the most difficult since the Second World War." "Europe (live) one of the most difficult times since the Second World War, perhaps even its most difficult hour," she warned at the conference of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to Leipzig in the former GDR.

"Every generation has its political challenge," said the Chancellor, noting that the generation of post-war Chancellor Konrad Adenauer had built Europe and that of Helmut Kohl German unity and European.

The rating agency claims to have taken action following the announcement of a wrong note degradation of France. She said also cooperate with the authorities have launched investigations. The rating agency Standard

The rating agency Standard & Poor's, which announced Thursday by mistake that France had lost its "AAA" rating, said on Friday it had taken steps to avoid repeating such a blunder, due to a confusion of his computer system. She said also cooperate with the authorities have launched investigations.In a statement, S & P states that it "determined that the wrong message yesterday (Thursday) on a gradient is a technical error completely independent of the sovereign rating of France and took immediate steps to prevent a similar error to reproduce ".

The agency explains that the error was triggered by a reassessment of the risks associated with banking sectors in different countries. For France, this criterion has been changed to "Not available" and "the system has erroneously interpreted this change as a degradation + +, which triggered the sending of a message to a limited number of subscribers registered to receive email alerts, "she said.

European shares are stepping up their gains, resulting in the CAC 40 index beyond the resistance of 3,300 points in markets relieved after the agreement reached in the night on the Greek debt restructuring, capacity building fund support the euro and the recapitalization of European banks.

In Paris the CAC 40 is doped by the bank and Axa, up 12%. At the top of the index, Crédit Agricole flies by 21%.

Dexia wins more than 10% at the resumption of trading of the security.Constraint to the dismantling early October due to the debt crisis in the eurozone, the bank said Thursday that its capital requirements amounted to 1.7 billion euros.

PPR takes more than 6%, boosted by the announcement on the eve of a very strong sales growth in the luxury market in the third quarter despite a difficult economic environment.

The euro peaked at 7 weeks against the dollar at 1.4038. Traders refer to a new level of resistance around 1.4050 dollar.

Dexia has paid 1.5 billion euros in its first two institutional shareholders that they carry out acquisitions of securities of the Franco-Belgian bank until 2008, the Financial Times reported Friday.

According to the newspaper, Holding Communal, an organization representing large municipalities in Belgium, has borrowed 1.2 billion euros to Dexia Bank Belgium (DBB), the Belgian branch of Dexia specializes in bank deposits.These funds were largely used to participate in two capital increase of Dexia Group in 2006 and 2008.

Arco, which invests on behalf of a Belgian trade union, has in turn borrowed 275 million euros, back into the capital of Dexia in fund-raising, according to the FT.

These two entities jointly owned 35% of Dexia, and are still represented on the board, the newspaper said.

The Franco-Belgian bank has actually borrowed money which it owned to finance its capital increase.

In addition, the FT reported that Dexia agreed in collateral on its loans its own shares, which implies that any collapse of the stock price is likely to generate heavy losses.

Dexia's market capitalization has increased from about 21 billion euros in 2006 to one billion euros to date.

This funding at the time had aroused the concern of regulators in Belgium, says the FT. However, if they are illegal in most countries and now banned in the European Union, Dexia has not broken the law then in effect.

According to the financial daily, the British bank HSBC dream to make an offer on DenizBank, Turkish subsidiary of the Franco-Belgian bank.

It has already received expressions of interest, including the Qatar National Bank (QNB), the sovereign wealth fund Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) holds half the capital, and the first Russian bank Sberbank.

The Deposit and Consignment Office (CDC), La Banque Postale and Dexia have reached an agreement on modalities for resumption of the activities of local government financing of French Dexia in the dismantling of the Franco-Belgian bank, reports Tuesday the daily Les Echos.

The newspaper said without citing sources, initially, the CDC will take 65% stake in Dexia Municipal Agency, the SCF for the refinancing of loans granted by banks to local communities.

La Banque Postale will take a 5% DMA, which was valued at 380 million gross, or 250 million net, the difference being the cost of necessary liquidity (estimated at 130 million euros) to operate a such vehicle, the newspaper which states that Dexia will retain 30%.

Les Echos added that this ownership structure will evolve in the production of new loans.

"The share of Dexia aims to reduce, but the way that La Banque Postale will strengthen remains to be defined," writes the daily.

The CDC, which represent the investment of 162.5 million euros, will retain a majority of DMA so that the vehicle remains the best financing conditions in the market related to its "AAA" rating.

According to Les Echos, DMA, which is currently a stock of 77 billion euros in loans to local governments, will be renamed in the coming months and will work exclusively for the new bank of French local authorities, a joint venture will be owned 65% by La Banque Postale and 35% by the CDC.

The Board of Directors of Dexia must rule on the agreement Wednesday, which will be submitted in the coming days to instances of La Banque Postale and the CDC, the paper said.

The agreement must also obtain clearance from the European Commission.