Economic Analysis and Indicators

L'Oreal, the world of cosmetics, said Monday the end of the term of a director of Liliane Bettencourt, replaced the board by one of his grand-son, John Victor Meyers.

The latter, aged 25, is a member of the supervisory board of the family holding company Tethys since January 2011.

Liliane Bettencourt, heiress to the group, is 89 years old. The candidacy of his grand-son will be submitted to L'Oréal shareholders at the next general meeting on 17 April.

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The pace of job creation in the private sector slowed in January in the United States following the sharp rise the previous month, according to survey results published monthly ADP e on Wednesday. Some 170,000 jobs were created last month in the private sector, while the market was expecting 185,000 new jobs. The December figure was revised downward to 292,000 jobs created instead of the 325,000 initially announced. This report is jointly published the company ADP and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. According to Alexander Hoder, economic analyst at FTN Financial, "that the figures should be higher in the future to the rate of unemployment is falling." This number precedes the monthly statistics of employment for the month of January which will be published Friday. The markets expect the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.5% and 150,000 net new jobs in the public and private non-farm, but after 200,000 announced for the month of December.

Enrollment managers and skilled workers have been growing. In contrast, unskilled workers and employees are in decline by 5% and 7.3%. Officers, employees

The temporary employment declined by 0.4% in October compared to October 2010, with a decline in all major sectors except industry, according to the barometer Prism job on Monday. Temporary employment is considered an indicator of future trends in the labor market.

In October, the number of executives and middle management and skilled workers have been growing 5.9% and 5.5%. In contrast, unskilled workers and employees are in decline by 5% and 7.3%. If the industry increased its use of temporary staff in October compared with October 2010 (1.8%), the other major sectors were down: construction (-0.6%), transport (-0.8 %), services (-4.4%) and trade (-4.5%).

These national statistics mask large regional differences: two regions stand out in terms of increase, Midi-Pyrenees (12.5%) and Haute-Normandie (+10.6%). However, in the Ile-de-France, the enrollment decline is temporary 7.3% in October over a year. There was also a decrease in Limousin (-7%) in the Languedoc-Roussillon (-6%) in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (-5.5%), Britain (-4.5%).

This barometer is determined by the group Umanis from the statistics provided by a panel of temporary employment representative, as Prism over 80% of temporary employment.

The rating agency claims to have taken action following the announcement of a wrong note degradation of France. She said also cooperate with the authorities have launched investigations. The rating agency Standard

The rating agency Standard & Poor's, which announced Thursday by mistake that France had lost its "AAA" rating, said on Friday it had taken steps to avoid repeating such a blunder, due to a confusion of his computer system. She said also cooperate with the authorities have launched investigations.In a statement, S & P states that it "determined that the wrong message yesterday (Thursday) on a gradient is a technical error completely independent of the sovereign rating of France and took immediate steps to prevent a similar error to reproduce ".

The agency explains that the error was triggered by a reassessment of the risks associated with banking sectors in different countries. For France, this criterion has been changed to "Not available" and "the system has erroneously interpreted this change as a degradation + +, which triggered the sending of a message to a limited number of subscribers registered to receive email alerts, "she said.

A report of the creditors of Athens believes that the refinancing needs of the country may rise to 440 billion euros in the darkest scenario, against 109 billion announced in early July. Greece in the storm

Rigor more poisonous than a solution? Troika seems at least begin to doubt the effectiveness of reforms undertaken by the austerity Greece. A confidential report of the creditors of Athens assumes that the country's situation is even worse than before starting the measurements. "Greece must prepare for a recession longer and more severe than that announced at the beginning of treatment," reports the BBC, citing the report.

According to this document, the need may arise in Athens for the next year to 252 billion euros, against 109 billion before the summer. Troika evokes even a worst-case scenario, where these needs would rise to 440 billion.The deadline after which Greece is supposed to be able to refinance market risk it being postponed for 2021, as originally intended, to 2027. According to the document, if the situation remains unchanged, the Greek debt will peak at 186% of GDP in 2013, before declining to 152% and 130% in 2020 to 2030.

For a discount of 50% of private debt

"The aid plan adopted in July (with a number of austerity measures) reduces the rate of debt but the effect is more than balanced macroeconomic and political" troika concerned. By virtue of its low situation, Athens may not be able to implement these reforms at the same time, according to the document.

"Greece will fail to juggle internal devaluation (through lower wages, tackling its budget deficit and the completion of its privatization program" ensures creditors.Privatization also loses in profitability every day. The recession and the collapse of markets by lowering the value of assets Greek, the product could yield maximum disposal of businesses by the state increased from 66 to 46 billion euros since the beginning of austerity.

Troika and urges government and private sector to put their hands in the leg as soon as possible. It ensures that private creditors should decide on a discount of 50% of the country's debt, so that it reaches 120% of GDP by 2020. In addition, "Greece needs public support significant long-term and sufficiently generous" insists the document. He believes the need for participation of public partners to 114 billion euros, if private creditors play the game of the discount to 50%.

Despite the green light Slovak EFSF and the new consensus in Europe to recapitalize banks, there are still some gray areas to be clarified before the euro area out of the crisis. An overview. The logo of the euro to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

The yo-yo scholarships continues. After jumping on Wednesday with the hope that the comprehensive plan to rescue the euro zone was well on track, European stock markets closed lower on Thursday. Paris dropped 1.33%, 1.33% Frankfurt, London 0.71%, 3.7% and Milan. The questions or the concerns of investors are doing now on the details and in particular the implications for banks of the measures.

Greece is close to the partial default

Despite the agreement on the payment of 8 billion euros by its creditors, the scenario of the fault beyond the initial charge for the year rose 21% to Athens.The level of potential losses on the country's debt is not yet official but "the discussion focuses on a discount of 50%," said a government source on Thursday in Europe. But determining the level of the discount "is very open, said a source in Brussels told Reuters. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors. Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure. " This scenario therefore a deletion of the Greek debt has at least prompted European leaders agree on bank recapitalization.For all creditors of Athens will have to place new provisions in their accounts, which will weaken their balance sheets.

The recapitalization of banks is finally Cohosh

If the IMF has long been the only one to ask for urgent recapitalization of European banks, the idea is now accepted by all, including France. She is now driven by Brussels, which would raise the capital ratio to 9% against 7% today, to reassure the markets strength. The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso delivered his script to get there. The banks will first have to rely on private sources of capital. If they fail, the states can participate by lending institutions. And if they do not have the means, the European Financial Stability Fund will he also intervene with the banks.

Increase the firepower of the EFSF

Just approved by the Slovak vote, the new enhanced EFSF is already considered insufficient to address emerging risks since July. It is therefore to do to participate in the recapitalization of banks and lending to troubled states – Italy, Spain and Portugal in particular – and avoid a scenario in the Greek.

Two scenarios are being considered to "maximize" its strength as stated Jose Manuel Barroso. Either turn the EFSF bank and let buy from the ECB, as would France. Or allow to act as an insurer from the holders of debt fragile, and guarantee them some of the losses in case of default of the countries concerned.However, the idea, a moment on the table to increase staffing at state EFSF seems ruled out, including Berlin refused.

The ECB, Germany and the banks resist

This "maximization" dear to Barroso does not delight everyone. Including the main concerned with two options on the table, the European Central Bank (ECB). The institution said it is "not appropriate" to use leverage by financing it with a banque.Une position shared by Germany, which fears that this requires the get their hands in their pockets to bail out the ECB. Germany refuses to elsewhere as the EFSF can be used to bail out banks in countries that are not under assistance. France has partially agreed with this view, stating that the State was ready to inject public funds into financial institutions without seeking the ease Europe.

Remaining banks, concerned about the forced recapitalization. The President of the Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, is such that this debate is "against-productive." "The money will come certainly not private investors, but rather states that will raise new funds," he said, quoted in the Financial Times. "And they will do so by increasing their debt levels, while the key problem lies in the ability of governments to restore confidence in public finances," he adds.

French banks have agreed to increase their capital to 9% as part of a coalition agreement with Germany to establish a common position before the G20 summit, said on Tuesday Foreign Minister Alain Juppe during the question session in the National Assembly.

"In the case of French banks, they undertake to get their share capital to 9% of their balance sheets (…) instead of 7% expected in 2013," he said in response to a member of his asking about the basis of the agreement to be reached between Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy before the G20 3 and 4 November.

"This will be achieved by mobilizing the income of banks themselves, who earn money, private capital and if necessary, ultimately, public capital," he told the National Assembly.

EFG Eurobank and Alpha Bank, respectively number two and three of the banking sector in Greece, will announce Monday a merger agreement to jointly face the challenges of the Greek economy, banking sources reported.

The agreement, which should lead to the largest bank in Europe's southeast by the assets, should enable the two facility to avoid having to use the mechanism of public provision of liquidity is likely to trigger a wave of consolidation in the sector, analysts said.

"The boards of both banks will sign the agreement and the announcement Monday morning and a press conference will take place at midday" told Reuters a source familiar with the bank.

The two banks have sent an invitation to the press for a joint press conference at 1100 GMT Monday, without specifying the subject.

"This is a friendly merger agreement between Eurobank and Alpha Bank, with the participation significantly from the Qatar Investment Authority" (QIA), told Reuters a banker of Alpha Bank.

The new entity will have 150 billion euros in assets, eight million customers and 80 billion euros in deposits, said a third source.

According to an official of Eurobank, the operation, if it is approved by shareholders of both groups take the form of an exchange of shares.

The QIA, sovereign fund of the Gulf kingdom, was already a shareholder of Alpha Bank.With this agreement, it will become a significant shareholder of the new group, according to sources, one of which states that the QIA has signed the agreement Saturday.

Analysts have welcomed the prospect of the merger, including Eurobank, which failed in July to stress test bank.

"This is a strategic decision that goes in the right direction and protect the two banks of worse to come for the Greek banking sector," Judge Takis Zamani, Beta Securities.

"Qatar is likely to inject money into the new entity at a time when Greek banks face a lack of liquidity, the losses in the ISP (plan of voluntary participation from the private sector with Athens, Ed), and higher impairments on credit, "said he.

Alpha Bank shows a market capitalization of 1.07 billion euros, against 1.02 billion for Eurobank. Their shares are down by 50% and 51% since the beginning of the year.

The first bank, National Bank of Greece, for its part has a capitalization of 2.88 billion euros.

The ounce of gold fell Wednesday below $ 1,800 an ounce in response to the statistics of U.S. durable goods orders and the rally on Wall Street started the day before.

The gold spot back around 1770 dollars per ounce. He had previously recorded a peak of 1,853.61 dollars an ounce.

Orders for durable goods in the United States have increased significantly more than expected in July. The U.S. Commerce Department reported a 4.0% increase in orders, after a decline of 1.3% (revised from -1.9%) in June

Analysts polled by Reuters on average expected a 2.0% increase.

To increase productivity, Rome plans to consolidate the religious holidays on Sunday. Cuts in social benefits and pensions are also planned. The Italian Minister of Economy, Giulio Tremonti, and the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi

The Italian Minister of Economy, Giulio Tremonti said Thursday "very strong measures for 2012/2013" in the new austerity plan being developed to achieve a balanced budget a year ahead of expected. "We will reduce the deficit almost in half this year we will have to be 3.8 / 3.9%," said the minister, which detailed before parliamentary committees the assumptions on which the government works for adoption at the by August 18.

The minister acknowledged that Italy had received indications from other European countries and the European Central Bank that serve as tracks.He expressed confidence that the government "will speak on the economic liberalization and privatization of municipal corporations" (transport, electricity, waste). He cited as a possible idea for "increased productivity" the grouping of religious holidays on Sunday. He announced cuts in social benefits and pensions but without the detail and was equally vague on the cost reduction policy (members' salaries, number of districts, etc.)..

The Minister accepted the idea of ​​reforming the labor law to "introduce more flexibility." But the possibility of layoffs eased, he said that "it is said that the government does everything it suggested." Strengthening the fight against tax evasion is also planned, and the revenue side, Mr Tremonti has not ruled out "solidarity contributions".So far, the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi opposed any tax increases even for the richest Italians, very favored by the current tax system. Always to increase revenue, the Minister announced consider increasing taxes on financial gains from 12.5% ​​to 20%, an increase that does not concern the bonds.