Economic Analysis and Indicators

Iran has stopped selling its crude oil to the French and British oil companies, said Sunday the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum.

"Crude exports bound for British and French companies have been stopped. We sell our oil to new customers, "said Alireza Nikzad, spokesman for the Ministry

. The de decision is akin to retaliation by the Islamic republic to the embargo on imports of crude from Iran who come into force on 1 July in the European Union …..

…. EU sanctions, decided last month by the bloc, are intended to punish the prosecution's nuclear program tehe ran, that Westerners suspected of wanting to develop the atomic bomb. Iran denies this and claims to cover only the civilian uses of nuclear energy.

The Iranian government warned on 4 February that it would reduce its oil deliveries destined for "some" European states.

Alireza Nikzad said that Tehran was studying possible new destinations for its exports of crude.

If you need a one-off, urgent cash advance, whatever the reason, there are a few options you can take when looking for cash advance lenders, however the easiest and quickest is the Internet.

The Greek government has summoned the deputies Saturday slingers to provide support to the austerity measures demanded by the EU and the IMF for the implementation of a second rescue plan, otherwise they commit the country to "an unknown and dangerous path" which he says will lead to bankruptcy and international economic isolation.

The leader of New Democracy (ND, conservative) Antonis Samaras, while criticizing the austerity policy of Greece sinking ever more into recession, urged é ; read of his party to support the second bailout, worth 130 billion euros, failing which their applications would be rejected for the upcoming legislative. 

The coalition of Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos has an overwhelming majority in parliament, which should ensure the adoption, scheduled for Sunday, a series of new austerity measures including a further reduction of public expenditure, of about 3.3 billion euros this year.

But six members of the government have already resigned in protest against the scale of austerity measures, among them a 22% decrease in the minimum wage.

"The consequences of uncontrolled failure would be incalculable for the country, not just for its economy (…). This would take us on a path unknown, dangerous, "he said Saturday Deputy Minister of Finance, Filippos Sachinidis

. In a newspaper interview Imerisia, he portrays the disaster in which he said Greece would fall if it did not honor the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of bonds maturing on March 20

. "Let us ask ourselves what it would mean for the country the loss of its banking system and not be able to import raw materials , pharmaceuticals, fuel, food and basic technologies, "he said

. The Greek government on Friday approved evening the bill involving the country in the reforms demanded by the EU and the International Monetary Fund for the implementation of the second bailout. 

While a 48-hour strike against austerity entered its second day, Saturday, fifty communist militants have deployed two huge banners on the ramparts of the Acropolis. "Down with the dictatorship of the monopolies and the European Union", they proclaimed.

FIFTEEN BILLION FOR BANKS?

Seven thousand demonstrators gathered in the center of the capital, according to figures released by the police. No overflow has been reported, unlike Friday when police fired tear gas towards protesters throwing Molotov cocktails and stones.

Members of the ND, which has a strong lead in the polls for parliamentary elections planned a priori in early April, should support the austerity measures Sunday, in the whole. But Samaras was keen to warn politicians of his party, the second largest group in parliament after the PASOK (Socialists).

"This is obviously a matter of party discipline," he said before a parliamentary committee, adding that any slingers would be excluded from elections of April.

The far-right party LAOS has left the government coalition Friday and ordered his four ministers to resign. Two members of PASOK have also slammed the government's door in protest against the harshness of austerity.

Former Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou has also wished to draw members of PASOK to vote austerity measures.

"I've lost friends, my family suffered, I lost my job, I was insulted, dragged through the mud like no other politician in this country," he told the elected PASOK parliamentary group.

"Yet all this is nothing compared to what our people expect if we do not choose the right path. Despite all the anger we feel as we boil, we must persevere, "he told them

. Minister Finance Evangelos Venizelos said on Saturday it would take perhaps another 15 billion more to rescue the Greek banks, thereby confirming the EU estimates

.

The European Union calls on the other hand the Greek government to provide details of further cuts in public spending of $ 325 million Euro

. It also requires a clear commitment from party leaders of the coalition government to implement austerity measures .. …….

Goldman Sachs has the ambition to grow further in Europe, said Chief Executive Officer of the U.S. investment bank, quoted in a Swiss newspaper.

"Our goal is definitely to win market share even greater in Europe and in all areas, whether brokerage, issuing shares and bonds, advice on mergers & ; acquisitions or money management, "said Gary Cohn, according to the Saturday edition of Finanz und Wirtschaft.

"We want to be number one in all our markets."

Gary Cohn adds that the decision of some European banks to withdraw a portion of their investment banking activities is an opportunity for Goldman Sachs.

According to the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, the fight against fraud and tax evasion was never as effective as that from the arrival in the five-year of Nicolas Sarkozy. Info or intox? The budget minister Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse presented on Thursday a report on the work of tax administration in recent years to fight against fraud and evasion, "a government priority," says the Minister of Budget. She said the government has given the IRS means that he had never been given. It concludes that the fight against tax fraud, reinforced by 60 new measures, has never been effective since 2007. What is it really?

In 2010, the results of tax audits totaled 16 billion euros, against 15 billion in 2009. Since 2007, the fight against tax evasion would have to get 50 billion euros in total, according to Bercy.Please note, these figures represent the amounts of fees and penalties notified. But all is not returned into the coffers of the state. According Drezet Vincent, the union unified national taxes (SNUI), the effective rate of recovery of tax claims is 50% after two years and 75% after four years.

A priori, this figure of 16 billion is quite a good result. A report of the Council of samples required (CPO) estimates because tax evasion between 20.5 and 25.6 billion euros a year. A rate of fraud detected from 60 to 80%. But the report of CPO, which dates from 2007, did not take into account tax evasion. Other estimates seem closer to reality: that of the European Commission, which evaluates tax evasion in France between 2 and 2.5% of GDP (40 to 50 billion euros), or that of which SNUI provides a range of 42 and 51 billion euros.

François Fillon has announced plans to reduce the growth of health spending to 2.5% in 2012 instead of the 2.8% originally planned. This goal is realistic? The responses of Gerard de Pouvourville economist and Chair of the Health Essec. Consultation with general practitioners rises to 23 euros. Drugs reimbursed at 35% will no longer be only 30%.

Among the austerity measures introduced on November 7, Francois Fillon announced a reduction in the rate of growth of health spending, reduced to 2.5% instead of 2.8% initially planned. For this, we need to find 500 million euros in additional savings, the details should be announced within the next ten days.This target is realistic? Above all, this rate of change is it tenable in the long run? The responses of Gerard de Pouvourville economist and Chair of the Health Essec.

The government announced a growth rate of Medicare spending reduced to 2.5% in 2012. This objective can be achieved?

Gerard de Pouvourville: This will not be easy. Certainly, the rate for 2010, 3% had been observed: the achievements were even below the target passed by the parliament! But the Court of Auditors has pointed out, this result was partly achieved through economic factors: favorable environment influenza, no significant revaluation fee for health professionals. We must see that the dynamics of spending on "long-term illness", supported 100% by Medicare, continues to be very strong.

Alcatel-Lucent announced Wednesday have a firm offer of $ 1.5 billion (1.1 billion euros) of the European fund Permira on its Genesys subsidiary, but plans to keep the rest of his division company, which he considering the sale for several months.

The group of telecom equipment was explained in July to study all possible options on that line of business, which employs some 5,000 people worldwide this year and should generate a billion euros in revenue based on estimates of Analysts.

"In terms of our business company, we concluded that the best choice is to preserve and strengthen it in the interest of Alcatel-Lucent and in the interest of our customers," said Wednesday the CEO, Ben Verwaayen, the statement said.

The sale of Genesys, which specializes in call center management solutions and customer relationship is expected to close permanently "to the end of 2011 or early 2012," subject to the agreement of the appropriate regulatory authorities, the company said.

This sale covers some 1,800 employees.

Genesys, which achieved in 2010 a turnover of about $ 500 million, should maintain a "strong trade relationship" with the branch company of Alcatel-Lucent through a joint development agreement, said the statement.

At the Paris Stock Exchange, the announcement of exclusive negotiations with Permira allowed the action Alcatel-Lucent to cut its losses and even briefly in the green board.The title, however, is left down and gave up 4.01% to 2.0320 euro at 11:28.

It had touched a low of 1.9820 in early trading, including affected by the revision of the recommendation to neutral from Oddo, against purchase.

The $ 1.5 billion offered by Permira for Genesys exceeds that mentioned in recent months to the entire enterprise division.

Despite the green light Slovak EFSF and the new consensus in Europe to recapitalize banks, there are still some gray areas to be clarified before the euro area out of the crisis. An overview. The logo of the euro to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

The yo-yo scholarships continues. After jumping on Wednesday with the hope that the comprehensive plan to rescue the euro zone was well on track, European stock markets closed lower on Thursday. Paris dropped 1.33%, 1.33% Frankfurt, London 0.71%, 3.7% and Milan. The questions or the concerns of investors are doing now on the details and in particular the implications for banks of the measures.

Greece is close to the partial default

Despite the agreement on the payment of 8 billion euros by its creditors, the scenario of the fault beyond the initial charge for the year rose 21% to Athens.The level of potential losses on the country's debt is not yet official but "the discussion focuses on a discount of 50%," said a government source on Thursday in Europe. But determining the level of the discount "is very open, said a source in Brussels told Reuters. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors. Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure. " This scenario therefore a deletion of the Greek debt has at least prompted European leaders agree on bank recapitalization.For all creditors of Athens will have to place new provisions in their accounts, which will weaken their balance sheets.

The recapitalization of banks is finally Cohosh

If the IMF has long been the only one to ask for urgent recapitalization of European banks, the idea is now accepted by all, including France. She is now driven by Brussels, which would raise the capital ratio to 9% against 7% today, to reassure the markets strength. The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso delivered his script to get there. The banks will first have to rely on private sources of capital. If they fail, the states can participate by lending institutions. And if they do not have the means, the European Financial Stability Fund will he also intervene with the banks.

Increase the firepower of the EFSF

Just approved by the Slovak vote, the new enhanced EFSF is already considered insufficient to address emerging risks since July. It is therefore to do to participate in the recapitalization of banks and lending to troubled states – Italy, Spain and Portugal in particular – and avoid a scenario in the Greek.

Two scenarios are being considered to "maximize" its strength as stated Jose Manuel Barroso. Either turn the EFSF bank and let buy from the ECB, as would France. Or allow to act as an insurer from the holders of debt fragile, and guarantee them some of the losses in case of default of the countries concerned.However, the idea, a moment on the table to increase staffing at state EFSF seems ruled out, including Berlin refused.

The ECB, Germany and the banks resist

This "maximization" dear to Barroso does not delight everyone. Including the main concerned with two options on the table, the European Central Bank (ECB). The institution said it is "not appropriate" to use leverage by financing it with a banque.Une position shared by Germany, which fears that this requires the get their hands in their pockets to bail out the ECB. Germany refuses to elsewhere as the EFSF can be used to bail out banks in countries that are not under assistance. France has partially agreed with this view, stating that the State was ready to inject public funds into financial institutions without seeking the ease Europe.

Remaining banks, concerned about the forced recapitalization. The President of the Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, is such that this debate is "against-productive." "The money will come certainly not private investors, but rather states that will raise new funds," he said, quoted in the Financial Times. "And they will do so by increasing their debt levels, while the key problem lies in the ability of governments to restore confidence in public finances," he adds.

France and Germany have pledged Sunday to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit scheduled for early November in Cannes, which will include a recapitalization of banks in Europe.

Met for crisis talks in Berlin, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel said they would formulate joint proposals to do so while refusing to give any details at this point.

"You will see the end of an entire fully functional," promised the Chancellor during a press briefing.

Nicolas Sarkozy for his part stressed that Europe should "have solved its problems by the G20 to Cannes," several members of the forum, including the United States, having recently expressed concern over the inability of Europeans to stop the crisis caused budget problems for Greece.

French and German leaders welcomed the fact that almost all European countries have ratified the Second Plan aid to Greece adopted July 21, which also expands the powers of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), the fund urgency of the euro area.

While starting to speak out to condemn the new plan to help poor, they said they expected the report of the troika (EU-European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) on the situation in Greece before any decision.

"We believe that the troika will be able to submit a sustainable solution for Greece, a member of the euro," said Angela Merkel predicted.

AGREEMENT "SOLD" ON THE BANKS

The Chancellor and the President also discussed the recapitalization of banks in Europe, an issue that has emerged under the pressure of the markets, concerned about the resilience of the banking system facing the European financial and economic crisis due to its exposure to country the worst off.

The first said that Paris and Berlin were "determined to do whatever it takes to ensure the recapitalization of our banks."

French President for his part assured that the agreement between the two countries on how and where the process was considered "complete", denying the reports of differences over the use of EFSF to provide the necessary funds.

While capital needs of European banks have been estimated between 100 and 200 billion dollars by the IMF, Merkel said that the new European Banking Authority and the International Monetary Fund would be asked to ensure that what is proposed is "durable and strong."

Nicolas Sarkozy referred to "a meeting (held) at a date to be fixed for the detail of what we do."

He said other than France and Germany were preparing a number of adjustments to the Treaties to strengthen European integration in the euro area.

The head of the French government has finally responded to those who, like the World Bank President Robert Zoellick, to accuse European leaders lack the vision that inspired their predecessors, stressing that it was now not to build projects, but to make decisions in a crisis without precedent.

"It is precisely because at that time there were grand visions that have failed to address issues that were not the details that we are now both in managing the crisis and solve problems that should have been solved before, "he said.

"Everyone knows, Europe has chosen the single currency without even thinking about what his government would be economic, not to think about the issues of harmonization of fiscal and economic policies and we have now in crisis response these problems. Well, we are determined to do it! "

UBS said on Sunday it had lost $ 2.3 billion (1.67 billion euros) due to unauthorized transactions on a range of future discoveries it Wednesday.

She added that she has covered the resulting risk, with a return to normal operations on an exchange.

"The loss resulting from unauthorized speculative trading on futures on various S & P-500, Dax and EuroStoxx over the last three months," said UBS in a statement. "The loss for this is $ 2.3 billion .As previously stated, no position of customers were affected ".

The trader UBS Kweku Adoboli, 31, appeared Friday in London after his indictment in connection with the investigation.

The managing director of UBS Gruebele Oswald said in an interview published Sunday by the newspaper Der Sonntag Helvetic, he did not intend to resign after the discovery of the fraud.

Following the resignation of Steve Jobs from his position as CEO of Apple, investors are questioning the ability of the action of the group to outperform over the long term.

If the title Apple has declined Thursday to close only 0.65% in the Nasdaq, many investors believe that the roadmap for Apple in the medium and long term has become blurred because Steve Jobs embodied the strategic vision of a group that has successfully launched new markets with the iPod, iPad, or iPhone.

Under the leadership of Steve Jobs, Apple has become the second market capitalization in the world with a value of about $ 350 billion and now close behind Exxon Mobil.

"In the long term, if Steve Jobs' health is deteriorating or if it is pulling more and no longer leads the group's strategy, we will probably reduce our position in half," warns Channing Smith, co-director at Capital Advisors to Tulsa, Oklahoma."People like Jobs are not so common," he added.

"The impact of the absence of Steve Jobs will be limited at least for the next two years for all products that come out during this period bear the imprint" But Judge James Meyer, chief investment officer at Tower Bridge Advisors, based in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

Investors feel that Steve Jobs will continue to guide Apple in becoming the chairman of the board of directors of the group, but they especially fear the day when the former head of Apple finally left the company.

"In the long run, considering it is an irreplaceable icon, Tim Cook (…) Is the man for the job? We do not know," asks James Meyer.

"We see before our eyes a legend heading for the exit.Only time will tell if the company has retained the innovation and creativity that has put in place, "said Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management, which manages a portfolio of $ 16.3 billion .

Keith Wirtz, like other fund managers with Apple actions, questioned his commitment on the title. It is, however, betting that the culture instilled by Steve Jobs Apple will continue to inspire, with its new role that will keep him involved in major projects of the group at the apple.

Most analysts maintained their bank recommendation to buy Apple for the title, with a price target of between 460 and 525 dollars on the next 12 to 18 months, but underline the high risk of volatility.