Economic Analysis and Indicators

Iran has stopped selling its crude oil to the French and British oil companies, said Sunday the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum.

"Crude exports bound for British and French companies have been stopped. We sell our oil to new customers, "said Alireza Nikzad, spokesman for the Ministry

. The de decision is akin to retaliation by the Islamic republic to the embargo on imports of crude from Iran who come into force on 1 July in the European Union …..

…. EU sanctions, decided last month by the bloc, are intended to punish the prosecution's nuclear program tehe ran, that Westerners suspected of wanting to develop the atomic bomb. Iran denies this and claims to cover only the civilian uses of nuclear energy.

The Iranian government warned on 4 February that it would reduce its oil deliveries destined for "some" European states.

Alireza Nikzad said that Tehran was studying possible new destinations for its exports of crude.

European shares rebounded Friday after several sessions of decline, especially after a Reuters information that the Member States of the European Union are considering, as part of the future permanent mechanism for stability of the euro area, to give to involve the private sector in the financial rescue of a country.

This discussion is part of wider ongoing trade reform on the European Treaty, on which Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel agreed Thursday in Strasbourg, it was said sources familiar with the matter.It does not however affect the participation of banks and insurers in the second EU aid package to Greece, where they pledged to remove 50% of their claims to the country.

The information bounces European markets, which operated in the red after a disappointing auction of Italy.

The richest woman in Germany, Susanne Klatten, has strengthened its position in the capital of SGL Carbon, distancing and Volkswagen in the race to control the "champion" of carbon fibers.

BMW, Klatten and that his family is a major shareholder, said on Friday hold 15.2% of SGL, participation in addition to the 29% already held by the German heir.

The action SGL Carbon gained over 7% in early trading Friday on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, and the title took 5.4% to 45.46 euros in mid-morning.

"The lightweight construction will play a role in the future more and more important in the automotive industry.Our stake in SGL Group is a logical step that will further strengthen a successful cooperation, "said BMW's chief financial officer, Friedrich Eichiner in a statement released Friday.

SGL Carbon raises for the past several months the lusts of Susanne Klatten, Volkswagen and engineering group Voith.

"This is a power struggle with no economic logic," said one German analyst on condition of anonymity, noting that several competitors SGL Carbon were able to provide manufacturers of carbon fibers.

In exchange, the action SGL has won over 60% since the beginning of the year while the DAX index of the average values ​​gave up 5%.

According to the German Chancellor, the current generation is facing "a testing history," and this is "to show that Europe can reach a turning point" with this financial crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday at the Conservative party conference that Europe knew "may" with the debt crisis "its time the most difficult since the Second World War." "Europe (live) one of the most difficult times since the Second World War, perhaps even its most difficult hour," she warned at the conference of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to Leipzig in the former GDR.

"Every generation has its political challenge," said the Chancellor, noting that the generation of post-war Chancellor Konrad Adenauer had built Europe and that of Helmut Kohl German unity and European.

Nestlé raised slightly its expectations for 2011 after nine months figures broadly in line with expectations and once again heavily impacted by currency effects.

"For the full year, despite the pressure of raw material costs, we expect to achieve a performance slightly above our range of long-term organic growth of 5-6% and continue to seek an improved margin at constant exchange rates, "said the CEO Paul Bulcke, quoted in the statement.

Organic growth at 7.3% which posted 4.1% real internal growth and 3.2% in price increases.However, currency effects reduced sales by 15.1% and divestitures, primarily Alcon, 5.7%.

At group level, the turnover fell to 60.89 billion Swiss francs (49 billion) against 65.3 billion during the same period last year, the global food Alcon recalling counted for 5.1 billion.

Analysts polled by Reuters on average expected a turnover of 61.88 billion. They anticipated organic growth of 7.14% and a real internal growth of 4.09%.

The U.S. economy has created far more jobs than expected in September, easing fears of a recession but failed to bring down a high unemployment rate, show official statistics published Friday.

Last month, 103,000 non-farm jobs were created, according to the Labor Department, while economists on average had forecast 60,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate however remained unchanged from one month to the other at 9.1%, a level "unacceptable" for the White House.

"We clearly need a faster economic growth to put Americans to work," could be read on the blog from the White House after the release of employment figures.

The plan for the use of some $ 447 billion announced last month by President Barack Obama is necessary to avoid a breakdown of the economy and lower unemployment rates, said one of the most senior economic advisers the White House.

"It's always a comfort when employment growth is better than expected, but (…) it's not nearly enough," Gene Sperling found on CNBC.

Statistics in September partly reflects the reintroduction of 45,000 employees of Verizon in the number of jobs created, they were not in August because of a strike.By excluding these employees, 58,000 new jobs were created.

The disappointing figures in August, which showed zero job creation, have been revised to bring out 57,000 new jobs. That of July was also revised upward to 127,000 against 85,000 previously.

Overall, the private sector has created 137,000 jobs, 100,000 against and 42,000 expected in August.The public sector has eliminated 34,000 jobs to him.

RELIEF

The employment figures feed for investors hope that the United States can avoid another recession despite gloomy summer and while the Federal Reserve this week reiterated its readiness to take further steps to support faltering economy.

Last week, the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) U.S. second quarter was revised upwards to 1.3% against 1.0% in the first estimate.

Recent indicators of the manufacturing sector, business spending and auto sales leave now think the economy is doing better than expected in the third quarter, despite the debt crisis that worries the European side of the Atlantic.

"The markets will show a little relief, as this supports the idea that we are not going to go into another recession, but it is doing," Judge Robert Lutts, president of Cabot Money Management.

Hourly wages have also increased by 4 cents in September after falling all the previous month.They then recorded their first decline since October 2009, pushing the savings to its lowest level for over a year and a half.

"The increase in job creation (…) is comforting and exciting to the market. But it seems premature to use these numbers to say, regarding the economy in general, as we got out of the inn "moderates John Kilduff, partner of Capital hedge fund in New York Again.

In September, the U.S. economy has eliminated 13,000 manufacturing jobs, after having destroyed in August 4000.

Economists estimate that the economy must grow by at least 2.5% per year and create at least 125,000 jobs each month to keep the unemployment rate to rise.

The growth slowdown coupled with the dynamism of the labor force will not help to reduce the number of unemployed, estimated employment center in its economic outlook. Agency employment center in Nice

Employment center does not provide for improvement on the unemployment front table and at best a stabilization of the number of job seekers in 2011 and 2012 and, at worst, a deepening if growth turned out lower than forecast government. "The slowdown in job creation combined with the dynamism of the labor force should not be allowed to initiate a decline in unemployment," said employment center in its economic outlook published Tuesday, October 4.

For 2011, the Agency plans to increase the number of job seekers without any activity of 5000 and 78,000 by including persons who have reduced activity.These predictions are based on a growth assumption of 1.75%, made by the government. Next year, "unemployment started to decline," if growth remained at 1.7% (assuming the government), with a decline in the number of job seekers with no activity on the order of 5000 and 12,000 by integrating people with reduced activity.

However, "if growth slowed in 2012, unemployment would continue to grow," said employment center. Based on a growth assumption of 1.4% (the IMF), the number of job seekers with no activity would increase by about 27,000.The prospect of a "stabilization of unemployment seems reasonable, except major accident" by the end of the year, said at a press briefing Christian Charpy, general manager of employment center.

Job creation is not strong enough to absorb the increase of the labor force

But, "unemployment will not reach the level it had before the entry into recession in early 2008," noted Bernard Ernst, director of studies of employment center who recalled that in previous crises of 1974 and 1992 the Unemployment had found "quite quickly" its pre-crisis. These forecasts are more optimistic than those of UNEDIC (unemployment insurance) that, based on growth in 2012 of 1.2% (consensus of economists) has provided an increase of 36,700 unemployed with no activity this year and 55,500 next year. "At this stage, a forecast of 1.2% in 2012 seems overly pessimistic," said Mr.Charpy.

Employment center provides, in addition, 130,000 net new jobs this year by companies affiliated with unemployment insurance, but the momentum is down (44 000 in the second half, against 96,000 in the first). In 2012, job creation should remain the same (126 000) if growth remained at 1.7% but reach only 101,000, with growth slowing to 1.4%. These new jobs do not seem sufficient to reduce unemployment because they are less than the increase in the labor force estimated at 140,000 or 150,000 per year.

According to Bernard Ernst, the labor force could grow more than expected after the announcement by INSEE in mid-May to strong growth in first quarter (0.9%).The prospect of an upturn in the economy brought on the labor market of people (youth, women etc) that were not previously found that increased enrollment in the employment center lists the "first mover" and people signing up for a "return to work," he said. "Registration for employment center are not independent of the economy" said Mr. Charpy.

Fimalac Thursday announced a definitive agreement with IBM leading to the sale of its subsidiary Algorithmics group for an amount of U.S. $ 387 million (270 million euros).

The risk management software, content and consulting services provided by Algorithmics are used by financial institutions, insurance companies and investment, said in a statement the parent company of Fitch .

Under the terms of the agreement, IBM will be sold at Algorithmics in cash at a base price of $ 387 million, "subject to price adjustments at closing."

The fiscal cost of participation at Fitch Group is estimated at about $ 96 million, said Fimalac.

Algorithmics recorded a turnover of 163.7 million dollars during its last fiscal year ended September 30, 2010, for an EBITDA of 10.9 million and an operating loss of 10.3 million.

The effective completion of the sale could take place before the end of October 2011.

The title Fimalac closed Wednesday on a course of 24.46 euros, a decrease of 23.6% since the beginning of the year for a capitalization of 700 million.

The Spanish will have to tighten their belts even more. The Socialist government is expected to announce Friday the new austerity measures to try to reassure markets. An employment agency in Malaga. Spain has an unemployment rate of over 20%

The Spanish socialist government is expected to announce Friday the new austerity measures to try to reassure markets while allowing voters to three months of general election in November.

Analysts expect the government, which seeks to save five billion euros, announced measures which do not affect the voters of the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE), avoiding including unpopular measures like higher taxes or cuts in health services.

The President of the Government Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in June assured that Spain would reach the deficit target of 6% of GDP in 2011, as promised. The deficit in 2010 reached 9.2% of GDP against 11.1% in 2009.

Analysts said the objective of Madrid in reducing the deficit will be difficult to achieve in view of the sluggish growth observed in the country and concerns about slowing global growth.

After reaching record highs, the cost of borrowing in Spain is again on the decline after the Spanish treasury bonds by the European Central Bank (ECB). José Luis Zapatero has advanced the parliamentary elections in November 20, four months ahead of schedule. The Popular Party (PP, opposition) is favored by polls to vote.

With Reuters.

Rexel has improved its second quarter results due to continued growth in the volume of sales in all its geographical areas, particularly in China and control its costs.

The world's leading distributor of electrical saw its EBIT to rise by 17.6% in the second quarter to 174.1 million euros (179.1 million in give comparable, an increase of 22.2%) for margin of 5.5% (60 basis points), due to higher gross margin and the effects of cost reduction measures taken by the group.

Rexel-owned 72% by a consortium of investors including Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (33%), Eurazeo (32%) and BAML Capital Partners (25%) – achieved a turnover of 3.157.6 million euros (+5.1% on a comparable basis and 3.6% as reported) in the second quarter.

In Europe (59% of sales) sales grew by 5.1% in Q2 while the increase was 5.7% in North America (28% of sales) and 5.3% in Asia-Pacific (10% of sales) due to an increase of 16% in China (over 20% of sales area).

"In the second half, we will continue to accelerate the deployment of our strategy which combines organic growth and selective acquisitions (…)" said in a statement Jean-Charles Pauze, CEO of Rexel.

Rexel confirms 2011 target for an improvement in EBIT margin of 50 basis points and a net flow of cash before interest and taxes of more than 500 million euros.

The group repeats that he wants to improve its profitability in 2013 and it is a close EBITA margin of 6.5% with a return on capital employed (ROCE) close to 14%.

At June 30, 2011, net debt stood at 2,363.8 million euros, representing an increase of 90.5 million euros compared to December 31, 2010.

The action Rexel closed Tuesday at 15.52 euros showing a market capitalization of 4.2 billion euros. It lost 4.52% since the beginning of the year after gaining 59.4% last year.