Economic Analysis and Indicators

The average price of a liter of unleaded 95 rose to € 1.58 last week and that of unleaded 98 amounted to 1.62 euro. The diesel has meanwhile increased to 1.42 euro per liter.

The price of gasoline at the pump, for the third straight week, in France reached new highs, according to data dated Friday and released Monday by the Ministry of Sustainable Development. The diesel, however, still below its 2008 peak, but is close to its highest since the beginning of the year, reached last month.

According to ministry data, the average price of a liter of unleaded 95 rose to € 1.58 last week and that of unleaded 98 (whose sales are much lower in SP95) amounted to 1, 62 euro. Both fuels and exceed the record levels set a week earlier (respectively € 1.5787 / l and 1.6184 euros / l), according to figures compiled by the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (DGEC) .

The diesel has meanwhile increased to 1.42 euro per liter Friday euro against 1.4180 the previous week. It is close to its highest of the year (1.4240 euro on Jan. 13), and its record in spring 2008 (1.4541 euro). The heating oil prices have also reached a new peak at 1.02 euro per liter, but retailers now expect a "slight easing," said the French Federation of fuels in a statement.  

Since late 2011, gasoline prices prance record after record in France, powered by a dual effect of geopolitical tensions (Iran, Nigeria …) that keep crude oil prices at very high levels, and the weakening of the euro against the dollar, which boosts the cost of black gold once its converted value in the single currency. Tehran said Sunday he stopped all oil sales to France and Britain, two EU countries most advanced in promoting sanctions against Iran.

This announcement, symbolic, since the two countries have already stopped their purchases to Iran in late 2011, could increase pressure on prices by increasing market fears of an escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which pass 15 million barrels of crude per day. The selling price at the pump are national averages calculated by the DGEC from data provided by service stations. Diesel sales represent about 80% of French consumption of motor fuels, the unleaded 95 just under 15% and 98 unleaded around 5%.

The satellite operator SES on Friday issued quarterly results in line with expectations but said it expected slower growth in sales and earnings this year Due to the delay in launching a satellite and the end of terrestrial television in Germany.

The group, which sells transmission capacity of television channels such as BSkyB, Canal Plus, Premiere or NBC, is expected to increase about 2% of its sales Business recurrent and 1% of its gross operating profit (EBITDA) in 2012.

In 2011, these increases were respectively 2.8% and 3.1%. 

Revenues for the fourth quarter of 2011 stood at 451.6 million euros, an amount consistent with the consensus calculated on the basis of estimates of analysts polled by Reuters.

The gross operating income for the period stood at 323.2 million euros (consensus: 333 million) and operating profit to 198.3 million (consensus: 198 million).

The shortfall in income related to the end of the radio transmission in Germany, which takes effect in April should be about 100 million euros since this post has generated 150 million euros in 2011. 

Excluding this impact, the recurring revenue and EBITDA grow by around 9% this year, continued SES, which has said it expects an average annual increase of 4.5% of its business and 4.0% of its EBITDA over the period 2012-2014.

Thursday, Eutelsat, one of the main competitors of SES, reported a drop in net profit in the first half of fiscal 2011-2012 due to an increase in financial charges and rate tax related to transactions of recent debt refinancing.

Enrollment managers and skilled workers have been growing. In contrast, unskilled workers and employees are in decline by 5% and 7.3%. Officers, employees

The temporary employment declined by 0.4% in October compared to October 2010, with a decline in all major sectors except industry, according to the barometer Prism job on Monday. Temporary employment is considered an indicator of future trends in the labor market.

In October, the number of executives and middle management and skilled workers have been growing 5.9% and 5.5%. In contrast, unskilled workers and employees are in decline by 5% and 7.3%. If the industry increased its use of temporary staff in October compared with October 2010 (1.8%), the other major sectors were down: construction (-0.6%), transport (-0.8 %), services (-4.4%) and trade (-4.5%).

These national statistics mask large regional differences: two regions stand out in terms of increase, Midi-Pyrenees (12.5%) and Haute-Normandie (+10.6%). However, in the Ile-de-France, the enrollment decline is temporary 7.3% in October over a year. There was also a decrease in Limousin (-7%) in the Languedoc-Roussillon (-6%) in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (-5.5%), Britain (-4.5%).

This barometer is determined by the group Umanis from the statistics provided by a panel of temporary employment representative, as Prism over 80% of temporary employment.

Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on a plan to reduce U.S. debt, which has just reached 15,000 billion. The reasons and consequences of this blockage. The President of the United States Barack Obama

Another failure of the Congress on U.S. debt. The "super-committee" responsible for reducing the debt of the United States announced Monday does not come to an agreement between left and right, after two months of effort. Congress had established a commission charged in August to decide on a plan to reduce debt. Composed of twelve members of Congress – six Republicans and six Democrats – the "super-committee" had a debt relief that comes from abyssal exceed 15,000 billion (you can see it evolve in real time on the site www.usdebtclock. org). The twelve were elected and agree on a plan to save 1,200 billion over ten years.The six Democrats proposed a plan for 2900 includes 1,300 billion billion tax increase, the six Republicans on the other hand opted for a plan of 2,200 billion euros, with "only" 200 billion of tax increases. Never reach a consensus after two months of negotiations.

Why the lock?

This blockage occurs less than a year of presidential elections scheduled for November 2012. "We are fully retracted into the political debate for 2012, especially with the right wing of the Republican Party who has taken a lot of power in the party," said Christine Rifflart Economist at OFCE. "And the Republicans have an interest in playing the firmness vis-à-vis Barack Obama that it is out of question to pass up the deficits."

For it is these Republicans who blocked the process.

Despite the green light Slovak EFSF and the new consensus in Europe to recapitalize banks, there are still some gray areas to be clarified before the euro area out of the crisis. An overview. The logo of the euro to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

The yo-yo scholarships continues. After jumping on Wednesday with the hope that the comprehensive plan to rescue the euro zone was well on track, European stock markets closed lower on Thursday. Paris dropped 1.33%, 1.33% Frankfurt, London 0.71%, 3.7% and Milan. The questions or the concerns of investors are doing now on the details and in particular the implications for banks of the measures.

Greece is close to the partial default

Despite the agreement on the payment of 8 billion euros by its creditors, the scenario of the fault beyond the initial charge for the year rose 21% to Athens.The level of potential losses on the country's debt is not yet official but "the discussion focuses on a discount of 50%," said a government source on Thursday in Europe. But determining the level of the discount "is very open, said a source in Brussels told Reuters. You have to see what the initial reaction of investors. Voluntary participation is the goal, at least for now and many feel that we must avoid the risk of total failure. " This scenario therefore a deletion of the Greek debt has at least prompted European leaders agree on bank recapitalization.For all creditors of Athens will have to place new provisions in their accounts, which will weaken their balance sheets.

The recapitalization of banks is finally Cohosh

If the IMF has long been the only one to ask for urgent recapitalization of European banks, the idea is now accepted by all, including France. She is now driven by Brussels, which would raise the capital ratio to 9% against 7% today, to reassure the markets strength. The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso delivered his script to get there. The banks will first have to rely on private sources of capital. If they fail, the states can participate by lending institutions. And if they do not have the means, the European Financial Stability Fund will he also intervene with the banks.

Increase the firepower of the EFSF

Just approved by the Slovak vote, the new enhanced EFSF is already considered insufficient to address emerging risks since July. It is therefore to do to participate in the recapitalization of banks and lending to troubled states – Italy, Spain and Portugal in particular – and avoid a scenario in the Greek.

Two scenarios are being considered to "maximize" its strength as stated Jose Manuel Barroso. Either turn the EFSF bank and let buy from the ECB, as would France. Or allow to act as an insurer from the holders of debt fragile, and guarantee them some of the losses in case of default of the countries concerned.However, the idea, a moment on the table to increase staffing at state EFSF seems ruled out, including Berlin refused.

The ECB, Germany and the banks resist

This "maximization" dear to Barroso does not delight everyone. Including the main concerned with two options on the table, the European Central Bank (ECB). The institution said it is "not appropriate" to use leverage by financing it with a banque.Une position shared by Germany, which fears that this requires the get their hands in their pockets to bail out the ECB. Germany refuses to elsewhere as the EFSF can be used to bail out banks in countries that are not under assistance. France has partially agreed with this view, stating that the State was ready to inject public funds into financial institutions without seeking the ease Europe.

Remaining banks, concerned about the forced recapitalization. The President of the Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, is such that this debate is "against-productive." "The money will come certainly not private investors, but rather states that will raise new funds," he said, quoted in the Financial Times. "And they will do so by increasing their debt levels, while the key problem lies in the ability of governments to restore confidence in public finances," he adds.

France wants a "collective European solution" to the issue of recapitalization of banks in the euro area and will not use, for its part, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), said Wednesday the spokesman of the French government.

President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged Sunday to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit under the French presidency in early November in Cannes.

This solution involves a recapitalization of banks in Europe, weakened by their exposure to sovereign debt of Greece and other countries in the euro area.

According to the spokesman of the French government, the collective solution will be presented at the European Council of 23 October in Brussels, at which Nicolas Sarkozy could inform Washington and Beijing before the G20 summit.

"We have no doubt about the strength of French banks but there is turbulence in financial markets that cause the increase of capital of European banks has become a necessity," said Valérie Pécresse during the proceedings of the Board of Ministers.

"Faced with this request to increase the equity of banks, France wants a European collective solution," she said."We will look at all the European banks, identify those that have the greatest weaknesses and help them recapitalize."

Under the Europe Agreement of 21 July on the financial rescue of Greece and the strengthening of the EFSF, the fund money in the euro area will lend money to states who need to recapitalize their banks.

"But France will not appeal to EFSF," assured Valérie Pécresse, who is also Minister for the Budget, which has however not rule out state intervention.

Anticipating BASEL III

"We value the contribution of private capital.Now, if public capital is needed, well, the French government is ready to face a public demand for capital by banks, "she said.

The French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Tuesday that French banks had committed to increase their capital levels "to 9% of their balance sheets (…) instead of the 7% expected in 2013."

He told the National Assembly that banks could be achieved by mobilizing their income – for those who make money – and private capital, "if necessary, ultimately," the state capital.

The three major French banks, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale, have accelerated the building of their own funds in an attempt to reassure investors about their ability to withstand the debt crisis in the euro area, which has already forced the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia to a dismantling.

They said they were able to achieve an equity ratio of "hard" ("core tier one") of 9% or more in 2013, as part of the new banking regulations Basel III will come into effect .

This regulation requires banks a minimum ratio of 7%, while Britain and Switzerland are already asking their institutions to go beyond 10%.

"We want to anticipate the implementation of these rules," said Valérie Pécresse.

"Europe must show its solidarity and at the same time give themselves a collective set of rules in terms of equity, recapitalization and strength," she said.

Concerning the European Agreement of 21 July, that Slovakia is the last country in the euro zone that have not ratified, which blocks the implementation, she said to believe a new vote of the Slovak Parliament, this time positive.

"This issue was raised during the Council of Ministers and the French government has confidence in the Slovak government to hold a second vote quickly to validate the agreement of 21 July," she said.

Hennes & Mauritz said on Thursday a drop in pretax profit in the third quarter, but less than expected, and gained market share in a difficult environment.

The second global chain stores ready-to-wear posted a pretax profit of 4.85 billion Swedish crowns (525 million) over the period from June to August, against 5.74 billion a year ago and a consensus Reuters giving 4.66 billion.

Rising costs of raw materials, especially cotton, and a negative currency impact have affected the outcome, said H & M, which also generated a gross margin of 58.6% against 60.5% a year earlier and a consensus of 58.1%.

Markdowns in the quarter were comparable to those of a year ago, said the Swedish group.

"H & M continues to gain market share in a difficult environment for the sector distribution of ready-to-wear," said CEO Karl-Johan Persson in a statement.

Over the period from 1 to Sept. 27, sales rose 3% in local currency, also announced H & M.

The action gained nearly 4% in the early morning after these ads.

The initial European shares rebound quickly Friday morning breath after the collapse of the market yesterday, investors are only partly reassured by the commitment of the G20 countries to do what it takes to prevent the debt crisis in the euro area would undermine banks and markets.

Around 10:05, the CAC 40 gained 0.15% to 2785.89 points, having briefly into the red half an hour after opening, having plunged 5.25% yesterday.

The speakers are on the defensive after the gloomy outlook of the Federal Reserve for growth and employment in the United States and in the absence of new measures to strengthen confidence in the global economy.

"Compared to yesterday's fall, opening up may be merely a brief respite from selling pressure," Jonathan Sudaria, a trader at Capital Spreads. "So the statements of the G20 are the mark of good intentions, there is no announcement of an immediate and comprehensive action is not expected anytime soon awakened appetite for risk."

Other major European markets, London and Frankfurt returning 0.3%, Milan 1.25%.Of the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 contains 0.58%.

Banks are leading the rally, including the French, with gains that are around 1%.

The European index of European banks is 1.1%, with a gain of 1.2% Credit Agricole in Paris, largest increase in the CAC 40 index.

The performance of the German government bond (Bund) and 10 years remained at around 1.7%.

The euro has also taken against the greenback after the promises of the G20 at 1.3528 / 30 dollars, against 1.3460 late in the day Thursday, where he hit a low of seven months.

A barrel of U.S. light crude back 38 cents to 80.89 dollars and Brent 51 cents to 105.90 dollars after having lost ground yesterday, in a movement of "sell-off" of generalized almost all markets .

While the downgrade of Greece routinely saddled markets, that of Italy by Standard and Poor's on Tuesday, has not moved many people. The greatest response finally came from Silvio Berlusconi but also to challenge the "political considerations" of the agency. Explanations of Jean-Louis Mourier, economist at Aurel Level. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Rome January 21, 2011

The U.S. rating agency Standard and Poor's has lowered the credit rating of Italy a notch, from "A +" to "A" due to low growth prospects, which will complicate the reduction of deficit and debt. What are the risks to the Peninsula?

Standard and Poor's is the first agency to downgrade the rating of Italy that had never been lowered since the beginning of the debt crisis, unlike that of other fragile countries in the euro area.The obvious risk is now to see interest rates still further on. The 10-year yields are now 5.67% or a spread with Germany of 3.90 basis points. The level is high but there is, after all, acceptable. Italy can still take the risk of finance markets rather than to appeal to the IMF, the political cost would be much higher.

Do you think interest rates will continue to rise?

All depend on the decision of Moody's, it will take only three months. But in practice the risk of soaring rates is very limited. For now, yields are already very high which suggests that markets for some time had considered this deterioration given the growth deficit of the country and its political instability. Quite honestly the situation in Italy is serious but not catastrophic.It is sufficient that the activity takes off a little, that a two budgetary measures are in place to return tax revenues to return to a primary surplus and so reduce the debt service. In terms of politics, the upcoming elections in 2012 should bring more stability to the country and more rigorously.

This decision threatens to fuel the fears of contagion from the debt crisis in the euro area?

No. In Spain, the victory of the right envisaged in the next few elections suggests a plan of fiscal restraint that will reassure the markets. As for France, even if growth is weak, it still emits positive signs.

Equity markets have continued to play yo-yo Tuesday, plunging on vague rumors and bouncing on mere statements of intent. Some banking stocks have at least the opportunity to recover his health.

Lost 6% during the day and finish on a 15% increase in closing is possible. The performance is to make the general assets of the Company on Tuesday, as a symbol of a particularly crazy day. European stock markets have not actually stopped playing yo-yo, showing a capacity to switch to the blackest pessimism based on rumors or news to perk up the idea of ​​a meeting or telephone a rescue of Europe by emerging countries.

At the end, Paris has finally gained 1.41%, following a fall of 3% during the session, and have opened up 2%.Other European markets followed the same bumpy ride, finally winning Frankfurt 1.85% 2.19% Milan, Madrid and London 2.53% 0.87%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones displayed a slight decrease (-0.35%) to 4:05 p.m. GMT. The euro was steady against the dollar.

European banking stocks, murdered in recent days by the markets because of their exposure to Greek debt, have made a spectacular recovery. In France, Societe Generale soared to 14.96% after falling 6% in the morning. The Deutsche Bank jumped 8.15% to 4.33% of Santander and the Italian Banca Popolare di Milano of 8.35%.

According to operators, is announcing a conference call Wednesday between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Prime Minister of Greece George Papandreou that allowed the markets back on their feet late in the session, feeding speculation about a new initiative for Athens.

Another positive for the markets, the major emerging economies of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have indicated that they would discuss next week the opportunity to help the European Union.

In the course of the day, rumors of "Franco-German Greece" had triggered a surge in short-lived, quickly faded after the denials of Paris and Berlin.

Angela Merkel has hammered on Tuesday that "top priority" was "to avoid a default uncontrolled" of Greece, a few days a meeting of European finance ministers attended by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

In the morning, a rumor had first given respite to European markets, also reassured by a rebound on Wall Street last night. This rumor, which evoked a purchase by the Chinese sovereign wealth fund of government bonds in Italy, was in turn denied by Rome, which said that talks with China focused solely on industrial investment, not a purchase debt.

For several days, Italy's third largest economy in the euro area, which is buckling under one of the heaviest public debt of the area is in the crosshairs of the markets.She has made a bond issue on Tuesday with rates have soared to record levels, a sign of mistrust of the market.

Rome has developed a new plan in August of rigor draconian 54.2 billion euros, which should enable the country to achieve a balanced budget by 2013 and reduce its huge debt (120% of GDP).

The austerity plan "will be presented Wednesday with a vote of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies and will be approved without change," promised the head of the Italian government Silvio Berlusconi, after a meeting in Brussels with the President of European Union, Herman Van Rompuy.

Another victim of rumors, BNP Paribas has denied the connection, an anonymous loan to the French bank reporting a failure for the group to find liquidity in dollars. Remarks not published in an article in a simple forum but given the Wall Street Journal.The title ended on a rebound 7.20% after falling nearly 10% during the session!